Sunday, 27 September 2009

Week 6 - Saturday


Yesterday started badly. I dropped Heitinga & Saha, only for the former to get a clean sheet & assist, & the latter to get a match winning goal. However, my day was to get better...

Firstly, I was at the Spurs game yesterday, where I witnessed Spurs destroy Burnley. I must admit, when the team was announced a lot of people around me were furious that Keane was starting ahead of Crouch. Maybe that's why we're fans & Harry's the manager! Keane was majestic in every department & could've had 6...Defoe should've had a hattrick but unfortunately (for him & my team) he got none & went off injured.  Still, fantastic result - I just hope nobody had Jensen & I also hope nobody has the hangover I'm currently experiencing ...:o)

Secondly, I've moved up almost 2000 places into the Top 2500, 101 points with Gordon & Reid still to play. Again, things didn't go perfectly but they went well enough, slowly but surely I'm gaining ground on those above me...& I'm tied with ToffeeDave on 671.50 points.

Seeing as Reid was my real hunch pick for a bumper weekend I'm pretty pleased that I've passed 100 with his points still to come. Torres was obviously a massive reason for this, but my decision to drop Gerrard to balance my team out proved the correct one (just). He scored 15 points but the players I brought in with his money (Lennon & Benayoun) scored 21 & I had lots of players bringing in decent points (Verm, Bassong, Nelsen, Defoe, Drogba, O'Hara etc).

So what did I do on the barndoor? Lots! In come Foster, O'Shea, Billy (good chance of starting with Pienaar's injury), Heitinga & Robbie Keane. Staying are Torres, Drogba, O'Hara, Verm...and I'm undecided on 2 midfield positions - Arshavin, Walcott & Giggs are all possible options. You have to fancy Everton, Arsenal, Man U & Spurs next weekend & I may also look at Wigan @ Hull & Wolves at home to Pompey.

I'm very pleased about how things are progressing, the more the season goes on the more I feel like I'm getting back in the groove & with 2 players still to play it could be a 115-120 point week.. Looking at the leagues it seems a lot of people are doing very well & as always I'm hoping the blog is helping.

So how did you do, who have you still got to play & who are you holding on the barndoor?

Cheers,
AM

50 comments:

RS said...

Good work AM. I've got 104 points with Gordon, Turner, and Bent still to play. So really need a good result from Sunderland. Have broken into the top 50 (at 50!), and just hope I can hang on with good points today. Wish me luck!

N00B said...

AM - Is this the time to drop Stevie or wait for the match against Cech-less Chelsea??

If i drop him, i could get loads of value and middlepriced middies!!

RedDevilDave said...

Given
Verma-Sonko-Heiti-O'Shea
Stevie-Blini-Theo
Nando-Keane-Saha

I'm luving the way my team is looking!!

Also, I still have 1.15 $ to spare.
Do you think anyone can be upgraded??

Maybe Theo to Hunt??

O'Shea and Theo are the only players that MIGHT change at the deadline,

Else my team is gonna be as it is until Saturday,
barring injury that is!

AND im NOT gonna even go near my yahoo id !!
I will stick with my team!!

Cheers,
~ RDD

RedDevilDave said...

AM -
With the "Week 6 - Sunday" and "Week 6 - Monday" You'll be a "Tuncay" away from a magical 100 posts!!

Cheers,
~ RDD

mehicoradio said...

i have Given to play but for the most part my week was horrid. 65 points thanks to Rooney and Tuncay. Most of my midfield produced decent points and my chance pick in R. Johnson ended up getting me 5.5 without the clean sheet.

As for moves, only made 2. Dropped Mtay for Cesc (may change) and R. Johnson for another defender (not saying).


By the way, got bored this morning so been looking at players and there points per week plus their Return on Value per week. Not a huge list yet but i'll post a little bit of it in a second (for any interested)

Assistant Manager said...

RDD - Oh yeah! might try & do something special for the 100th post :)

mehicoradio - That sounds awesome mate, stick the list up...I might put it up as a full post!

Cheers,
AM

mehicoradio said...

Alright so i've looked at a few of the higher priced midfielder we can choose from, and check, by week, how well they returned their value as well as averaging their points.

Now Yahoo already does an overall average, so my averages get rid of the worst week and best week to try to find their normal returns so far.

MIDDLES BY WEEKS THEY RETURNED ON VALUE
1. Giggs: 3 weeks out of 5 played or 60%
2. Lennon: 3 weeks out of 6, 50%
3. G. Barry: 2 weeks out of 5, 40%
4. MTay: 2 weeks out of 6, 33%
5. Milner: 2 weeks out 6, 33%
-------------------------------
6. Cesc: 1 week out of 5, 20%
7. SWP: 1 week out of 5, 20%
8. Gerrard: 1 week out of 6, 17%
9. Lampard: 1 week out of 6, 17%
10. Yoshi: 1 week out of 6, 17%
---------------------------------
11. BFAY: 0 weeks out of 6, 0%
12. Arshavin: 0 weeks out of 6, 0%

Now, i realized that some players have a harder time to return their value because they would have to score, for example, 20 plus points a week. Personally i find that unreasonable. Thus lets now look at averages, subtracting out their best and worst games fantasy wise:

MIDDLES BY AVERAGE (MINUS LOW/HIGH)
KEY: Name: Avg (scored averaged) (scored subtracted)
1. Giggs: 17.67 (17, 23, 13) (6, 28)
2. Gerrard: 14.69 (10.75, 13.5, 19, 15.5) (38, 5.5)
3. MTay: 12.38 (15.5, 12.5, 14, 7.5) (6, 16.5)
4. Lennon: 11.5 (15.5, 16, 8.5, 6) (28.5, 1)
5. Cesc: 11.17 (7.5, 14, 12) (31.5, 5)
---------------------------------------
6. Lampard: 10 (13, 13, 7.5, 6.5) (28, 6)
7. Milner: 9.63 (8.5, 7.5, 3, 19.5) (20, 2.5)
8. G. Barry: 8.17 (4.5, 7.5, 12.5) (2.5, 13.5)
9. BFAY: 6.88 (7.5, 7, 9.5, 3.5) (9.5, 3)
10. SWP: 6.67 (5.5, 4.5, 10) (3.5, 17)
--------------------------
11. Yoshi: 5.25 (2.5, 3, 6, 9.5) (2, 45)
12. Arshavin: 2.75 (3, 2.5) (12, 2)

AVG/CURRENT PRICE
1. Giggs: 125%
2. Lennon: 98.6%
3. MTay: 79.6%
4. Milner: 75.1%
5. Gerrard: 68.7%

I'll work on getting some other tonight, time to get some sleep here. Probably going to take a look at Strikers, Defenders and Keepers first though.

If you have some suggestions for MIDDLES to look at, just let me know. So far i need to still look at O'Hara and Hunt for sure.

mehicoradio said...

Double post but wanted to post real quick this tibit.

So far from what i've seen (up to around the 12.5 price range) i've found only 2 players that have returned their value 80% of the time.

Any Guesses?

naning said...

@mehicoradio - O'hara and Bowyer?

mehicoradio said...

err actually i should adjust the question. of players priced over 12.40, only 2 have returned value. Both are strikers, and both fairly well-known.

I'm sure O'Hara has returned like 200% over haha, just haven't gotten to the lower price players yet :(

mudwalkerz said...

bad, bad saturday for me..49 points with 4 to play. Let's hope today and tomorrow bring some extra points still. Dropped Warnock for Heitinga on the barndoor. Gordon has been dropped also ofcourse for next week. Don't really know yet as for the rest.

mudwalkerz said...

btw Lennon and Benayoun only got 15.5 together...

Anonymous said...

ey guy wats "phantom points" ?

Naning said...

Phantom points are the points that just appears. Corners Won, Successful Crosses and Blocked Shots are examples.

Jamie said...

bad week for me, 61 points with Given and Bridge still to play,
Finally decided to drop Tuncay and also Stevie G, Now I have

Given
Vermaelen Bassong Carr
Walcott Rodwell Palacios Thomas
Drogba Torres Rooney

Assistant Manager said...

Mud - Sorry, I meant Benayoun & Defoe (20.5)

Mark said...

@ Jamie

I'd rethink about palacios man.. Gave me -1.5 pts this week.. He's always picking up yellow cards

greginho said...

not a good week here. my only mistake was dropping gerrard and tamir cohen, who i had at +1.89 for lennon and mtay, ohara and billy.
gerrard's 15.5 and cohen's 13 outscored lennon's 6 and mtay's 7.5.
with rooney's doughnut i have 57.5 with given, bridge and bent still to play. i am hoping for 95, but 85 points would be more realistic, which equal my only other week under 100.
i dropped from the top 20 to 40, even letting some team called modric is god pass me up.
i like that graphic that mehicoradio put up, simply because i barndoored giggs without seeing that.

Anonymous said...

@greginho -

FYI - Thats the one n only - AM's Team :D

Ruki said...

I just made a mistake and lost discounted Saha ( at 8.70). Let's hope he breaks his legs in training now!

Ah well, I always want to fit Rooney in next week with Torres and Drog anyway, might as well just do that.

Anonymous said...

any suggestions on my wk.7 team

given

vermalean heitinga bassong

benayoun milner cohen fabregas

drogba rooney adebayor

billthegrunt said...

@mehicoradio -- great work with the stats. I was looking for a way to measure consistency in the EPL. The "diving" technique of throwing out the high and low scores works great.

QQ -- do you have the individual game breakouts for that first double week?

I wish Yahoo did what other fantasy sites do, make their stats downloadable as a spreadsheet.

Adam from Portland said...

75 with Bent, Given and Bridge to go :)

Next week is starting to look like
Given
Verm/Heit./Bridge
Cesc/TCohen/DBillyD/Arshavin
Drogba/Bent/Yayga

Kellz said...

@Adam: Maybe pick just 1 of Cesc/Arsh, you can use the 16mil/14mil to plug in a different player. If you notice all season Cesc does better than Arsh and they both don't score well together. If anything drop Arsh unless hes your hunch to sound off on B'Burn. Then fill in Giggs/Lennon/MTAY/BFAY(wouldn't count on it)/Ireland etc. Go based on the matchups. Good luck!

greginho said...

thank you Bent. that approximate 30 points will help alot. 2 goals and an assist, plus 4 sot's, too bad you are gone for Saha next week. at man u is a lot tougher than at home to stoke. i wish i could keep bent at the 10 that i had him, but his next game is home to liverpool.

now i need a bridge assist and given to have 6 saves while man city shut out west ham!

Dare to Devil said...

This week is an absolute nightmare for me, a measly 68 points so far with Given & Richards to go. Perhaps that's the price for ignoring Torres & having both Rooney & Tuncay in the team.

Here is what I will do for next week...

Given
Heiti Verm Bassong
Lennon Hunt O'Hara Walcott
Drogs Rooney Defoe

I still have 1.26 left to play.

Not sure bout Theo though. And this will be the 1st week without a premium middie for me, feel a bit insecure.

Please do comment on my team. Thanks in advance ;)

Adam from Portland said...

@Kellz Cesc/Arshavin... It's a calculated risk. With me way down in the standings, Arshavin down to $14, and Arsenal's schedule for the next couple of months, I'm gambling Cesc and Arshavin figure out how to play together. I can't go down a whole lot further in the standings. There's an awful lot of talent on the field between those two. If they could get on the same page, they could produce a lot of points quick enough to get me into back in shouting distance.

ToffeeDave said...

I just want to say something about Arshavin, STOP PICKING HIM!!! Everyone is still on his nuts because he had a 4 goal game LAST season when he was a NEW player. No one in the epl knew how to mark him or how he played because he played in russia(played differant role internationally as well) and after half a season in the epl, people have figured him out. Arshavin is probably an average point-scorer in terms of fantasy at best unless he gets lucky with a goal. he is wayy too over-priced from last season and anyone who picks him up should feel like a sucker as there are at least 8 better options in midfield for the money.

stlram01 said...

I agree with ToffeDave, but I'd take it one step further, Don't pick Arsenal players at all (except Verm). They spread the ball too much and it's hit or miss for who scores. They are great in reality, but not in fantasy.

Should I jump on the Saha bandwagon? I'd have to get rid of Lennon and use like Gera or something. Plus I'd drop Benitez, but I know he is due for a goal soon...Stoke still plays ok away, just not shut down defense, i.e. Manure game this week.

Here's hoping Billy starts!

stlram01 said...

I agree with ToffeeDave, but I'd take it one step further. Don't pick any Arsenal players, except Verm, because they spread the ball too much and it's too much of a gamble guessing which player will score the most fantasy points each week. They are great in reality, but I don't like them that much in fantasy.

Should I jump on Saha bandwagon? I'd have to drop Chucho and Lennon (for like Gera). I think Chucho will score soon though, so I'll give him some time, plus he is a striker that seems to produce even when he doesn't score.

Here's hoping Billy starts!

stlram01 said...

Sorry for the double post, it gave me an error and I didn't think it posted the first time.

greginho said...

dare to devil,
why walcott? i am an arsenal fan and i wouldn't pick walcott, tamir cohen might be good choice for you. i picked around his points, by dropping him this week, i am not picking him up because i am going for giggs, but he might be worth a try and not many people have him. another guy noone has that is producing more than his cost is boateng for 6.79, he is starting for portsmouth and they are playing wolves. portsmouth is going to score 2 or 3 goals and he might get an assist or another goal. he hasn't been crossing the ball because he is playing pretty close to behind the srtikers. so corners/ fouls won, goals and assists will be his way to get points.

if you picked up gerrard, you would lessen your offense too much. it is not that bad to have lennon and hunt plus another good middie.

greginho said...

dare to devil,
why walcott? i am an arsenal fan and i wouldn't pick walcott. if you are looking for middies that not many people have, tamir cohen at 8.50 is a great choice. i picked around the points with him by dropping him this week. he is at home to tot. who don't travel that well. also boateng at 6.79 is a another midfielder beating his price. he is playing for portsmouth pretty close behind the strikers. he is going against wolves and i think portsmouth is going to get 2 or 3 goals. he might chip in with an assist or get another goal. he is not getting production through crosses. since he is in the middle, he will get points by way of corners/ fouls won, goals and assists.

i wouldn't worry about not having a premium middie. the only one that is worth it is gerrard and he would ruin your offense, if you picked him up. i think lennon, hunt ohara are worth picking in any side!

Adam from Portland said...

@ToffeeDave Actually, Arshavin had 14 Goals and 14 Assists on 98 shots, 49 shots on goal in 08/09, Arshavin has been productive goals at every level he's played. Here's his stats...

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/players/stats?id=22873&cc=3888

...for Arsenal, Russian National team in European Qualifiers, in World Cup qualifiers, for Zenit St. Pete in league and UEFA Cup.

I don't know how you can possibly say Premier League teams wouldn't have his UEFA Cup and Russian National Team performances at Euros/World Cup on tape to scout Arshavin defensively? You think a Premier League manager like Sir Alex can't figure out how to defend a someone who plays on the Russian National Team? That's crazy talk.

You don't wish to play Arshavin on your team lineup? Don't start him on your team.

greginho said...

dare to devil,
why walcott? i am an arsenal fan and i wouldn't pick walcott. if you are looking for middies that not many people have, tamir cohen at 8.50 is a great choice. i picked around the points with him by dropping him this week. he is at home to tot. who don't travel that well. also boateng at 6.79 is a another midfielder beating his price. he is playing for portsmouth pretty close behind the strikers. he is going against wolves and i think portsmouth is going to get 2 or 3 goals. he might chip in with an assist or get another goal. he is not getting production through crosses. since he is in the middle, he will get points by way of corners/ fouls won, goals and assists.

i wouldn't worry about not having a premium middie. the only one that is worth it is gerrard and he would ruin your offense, if you picked him up. i think lennon, hunt ohara are worth picking in any side!

Kellz said...

Adam: we gave you our advice. You cannot base Arshavin on last season stats, because so far he has done nothing fantasy wise, therefore I would stay away. Same goes for Lampard, last season he was YFF top points scorer and now hes only on 1 goal and 4 SOT, hes not performing like he used to. However if Arsh is your hunch keep him.

*And you better believe Fergie and other top managers have tape on many players in the EPL, including Russian and abroad. Most major top clubs have scouts all over the globe. Don't you play FIFA lol?

Bojan said...

bent 32
reid 8,50
turner 16
gordon 3,50

Stephen said...

Bent 32??? It wasn't even his goal was it? Swapped him for Saha so will be very disappointed if he keeps those points! Had made up a lot of ground this week too. :(

ToffeeDave said...

lol adam your "stat-whoring" makes you look like an idiot along with your reference to Man U. Ok let's break it down, did he score against Chelsea in the league? NO. Did he score against Man U.? NO. He scored 6 goals in 12 premier league starts, 4 came from the liverpool game which is probably one of the best game's in recent memory due to the redshite's defending that day. So, 2 goals in 11 games is a good haul for an attacking midfielder? Let's see who has outscored that this season. Im going to exclude one game hauls as well. Ballack, Cohen, Gerrard(obviously), Lennon, Geovanni, Babel, Dunn, MTay...Also, according to that stat table you gave me, excluding the liverpool game, he averaged a shot a game on target. Explain to me how this is productive for an attacking midfielder at 14.37. Ok ok, so these are last years stats, let's look at this year's then. He has a grand total of 19.5 points...WOW AMAZING HOW DID HE DO THAT?!? His best week was 12 points, WITH A GOAL! Now I will post the first two players I can find who scored more than his average (4.88 points) every game they've played and their cost

Boateng--8.67 points--6.82 cost
Jarvis--7.36 points--7.60 cost
So with these two players, picking their worst combined week, we would have 13.5 points(week 5) which trumps Arshavin's best week of 12 points. Ok so Arshavin got 12 points in week 3 so I should compare week 3. Well since Boateng did not play, Jarvis has to shoulder the points for that week which is 9. So we have Arshavin's 12 points against Jarvis' 9, who at the time was 1/3 the cost of Arshavin. Does anyone else see what im getting at? WHAT A WASTE OF CASH.

Here's another point, of all the midfielders within 4 units of Arshavin's price, only 4 have failed to double his total points for the season so far. Why on earth would you ever buy this guy? By all means, I wish you would so I could build an even bigger gap but since this blog is to help players, I cannot tell you to do that :) If you disagree please post your reasoning as to how im wrong. I would love to laugh at..err...hear it.

Sam said...

@ToffeeDave -

Looks like your in quite a "cheery" mood. :D

BTW Guys , looks like only ONE guy in the whole YFF had Keane/Bent/Nando !! And also worth mentioning, he had Gomez and Givet!!
So exculding his three forwards and the zeros,
He got 72.5 from 5 players!!! Thats a whitewash imo...!!

Check out his team here!!

uk.premiership.fantasysports.yahoo.com/football/36148

And also.. im really really happy with my team!!

I got 150.5 points with Given still to come!!

Here is my week 6 team

Given
Verma/Sonko/Turner
Gerrard/Lennon/O'Hara/Mokoena
Torres/Saha/Bent

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BEAT THAT!!!

mehicoradio said...

Alright a quick post of Strikers, mainly did the big names at the moment. I have other on there but gotta work on them still first. This is of Drogs, Rooney, Torres, Saha, Kuyt, Bent, Defoe, and RVP

RETURN ON VALUE WEEK TO WEEK
1. Torres: 5 weeks out of 6, or 83%
2. Saha: 4 weeks out of 5, or 80%
3. Drogba: 4 weeks out of 6, or 67%
4. Bent: 4 weeks out of 6, or 67%
5. Rooney: 3 weeks out of 6, or 50%
------------------------------------
6. Defoe: 3 weeks out of 6, or 50%
7. Kuyt: 2 weeks out of 6, or 33%
8. RVP: 1 week out of 6, or 17%

AVERAGE SCORE (MINUS HIGH/LOW)
1. Torres: 23.12 (He has only scored under 20 twice, week 2 (16) and week 4 (2.5))
2. Drogba: 20.75 (under 20 week 3 (12) and week 6 (14))
3. Rooney: 17.38 (under 20 week 3(8), Week 5(12.5) and week 6 (0). Never scored 30 or more)
4. Bent 15.63 (twice over 30(week 1 and 6), Avg gets bumped by his 30 week 1)
5. Saha: 15.17 (past 3 weeks been near or above 20 points)
---------------------------------------------
6. RVP: 14.13 (outside of 2 weeks, been giving 15+)
7. Kuyt: 13.13 (most weeks been getting around 10 points)
8. Defoe: 10.5 (average about around what he been returning, weeks 3 and 5 under 10)

AVG/CURRENT PRICE
1. Drogs: 131.4% (193% if owned since week 1)
2. Saha: 121.8%
3. Kuyt: 112.4%
4. Bent: 107.8%
5. Torres: 106.2%
6. Rooney: 98.3%
7. Defoe: 76.1%
8. RVP: 75%

So basically by just return on value for this week, the best of the higher priced strikers are Drogs, Saha, Kuyt.

However if you look at the consistency as well, i'd say without looking at match-ups the best lines would be:

Drogs-Torres-Rooney (61.25)
or
Drogs-Torres-Saha (59.04)

Looking at mainly match-ups, I would say:
Rooney-Saha-Defoe (43.05)
or
Rooney-Saha-RVP (46.68)
or
Saha-RVP-Defoe (39.8)

bean said...

all i know is Arshavin was up near the top of the average points in YFF last year, this year, not so much. He's had a little injury, so some downtime is expected, but he just hasn't been the points getter he was last year. I believe most of the time last year when he pulled in so many points is when cesc was out?

bottom line, he's averaging 4.88 points per game at a cost of 14.37, not exactly value for your money. but could he be due? we certainly know he's capable of big points, but was that just the 'new league has to prove himself spurt' of last years debut season?

It's kind of a weird year so far in terms of a lot of last year's blog favorite players poor performance(for the YFF $):
Lampard
A.Young
Ireland
Anelka
Arshavin
Vidic/Rio
Fellaini
Reina
Schwarzer
Cech

these guys last year you could pretty much guarantee they would put up some points, especially if you kept them over a few games..

and of course there's some suprises this year that have been strong performers that were somewhat weak last year (or just performing much better than last year):

Giggs
Drogba
Milner
Saha
Fletcher

and the whole lot of the promoted teams players, who have been performing at or above their value.

Adam from Portland said...

@ToffeeDave Like Sam just pointed out, "Looks like you're in quite a "cheery" mood."

I have no intention of spending a chunk of my day in a flame war with some guy on the net that feels like sharing his "cheery" mood with the whole world.

Besides, this isn't my blog and it isn't your blog, toffeedave. Neither one of us has any business starting up an ugly flame war here.

You wish to make a mess of a comment thread with a flamewar, toffeedave? Start a blog of your own, and post it there.

bean said...

@mehicoradio-thanks for the stat breakdown, extremely useful. appreciate you sharing.

greginho said...

adam from portland,
i got ganged up on earlier in the week by toffeedave and kellz, so i know how it feels. i don't understand why a few people are so quick to jump down the throats at some posts. it is like they are protecting there turf or the turf of there buddies. and now there will be a post about you saying the there are "too many people getting on this blog and the quality is going down" or that you "stink". those are some of my favorites!

just because people don't or can't post regularly, doesn't mean they aren't important to the blog.

Kellz said...

@geginho: to rehash the Tuncay debate, I was saying you don't have a right to stop people from discussing a topic, no matter how played out or tire-some, because others still may find it of value. Then I apologized you had a poor midfielder week. Don't see how that "ganged" up on you or jumped down your throat. Notice I keep my posts very clean and supportive.

Adam from Portland said...

@greginho Thanks for the supportive post.
AM just opened that new league for a bunch of us. I wouldn't feel very good about leaving a big mess on a thread so soon after he did that.

Doesn't take a great deal of talent or ability to get into a online yelling match. The people that spend any significant amount of time online, and avoid online yelling matches, now that's what's difficult to pull off.

ToffeeDave said...

Ok first of all I wasnt even angered or anything or trying to bully you I was simply pointing out that Arshavin was complete garbage this year for his price. In hoensty, I didnt read your entire post but as soon as I read Arshavin, I posted my thoughts on him, then you threw stats in my face like you were correct in him being a good fantasy producer so I threw it back in your face. I apologize as I should've read the entire comment by you and maybe I wouldn't of been so harsh as Im trying to help new players not pick him up. If you want to it's your choice by all means. As for greginho yeah I came across as harsh there too but didn't mean to be. His suggestions are good ones and people should look at them with some consideration as I was about to post about boateng but saw he did. I just dont think you should try to back up something that has no base hence my two "mean" posts.

greginho said...

yes kellz yours are more supportive, but three posts in a row, where resaying the same thing

Remedial Spastics said...

Steve Bob - good luck tonight. The chap below you has a couple of Man City defenders to go with 21 points the gap. Bet you'll be watching tonight!

I'm closing on you too...

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