Friday, 4 December 2009

Week 14 Round-Up & Week 15 Preview


24 hours 'till deadline & once again it's proving a very tricky week....

Firstly, I've been really pleased with the feedback from my guest slot on The Week Ahead, with lots of positive comments on here & on FantasyEPL. I hope the experiment has led to new readers for both blogs!

Now so let's focus on whittling down my initial list of 45 to the remaining players I'm still considering:-

KEEPERS
Almunia
Kirkland
No messing about here, it's going to be 1 of 2. My main fear with the Arsenal keeper? He's played 8 games this season & a grand total of -0.5 points, has only made 15 saves, conceding 13 goals, which is simply shocking. However, I'm convinced of an Arsenal win. Meanwhile, I still hold Kirkland at 1.6m but I'm less confident of a Wigan win. Tough one, but I think I'm leaning towards keeping Kirks as it'll leave me an extra 4m to spend.

DEFENDERS
Vermaelen 
Baird
Dunne
Traore
Hreidarsson
Brown
Alexander
Vermaelen stays & Traore will probably be there unless I read team news suggesting Silvestre replace him. That would leave me with a decision to make - keep Baird or Alexander, or bring in Hreidarsson/Dunne/Wes Brown. I'm finding it very hard to rid myself of Alexander seeing as Portsmouth keep giving away penalties, so at the moment he's likely to win the race. 

MIDFIELDERS
Fabregas
Duff
Milner
Downing
Arshavin
Nasri
O'Hara
Giggs
Billy
Young
This is by far & away the toughest position to pick for this week. Usually I have it narrowed down to 8 midfielders by the time I write my Friday round-up, but as you can see I'm still considering 10, including a new entry in Ashley Young. Fabregas has been in all week, but 17m is a lot so with Walcott's injury I'm thinking of spreading his cost on Nasri or Arshavin + a Villa Midfielder or Giggs. Duff stays, so O'Hara & Billy are battling out for the final spot. 

STRIKERS
Drogba
Rooney
Rodallega
Defoe
Eduardo
3 our of 5, but it's really 2 out of 4 as Drogba undoubtedly stays at 10.66. I must admit I'm scared that a booking would leave him to miss one of the games of the double-week in Week 15 (more on that later), but for this week he'll stay. Then I need to decide whether Defoe (big discount) stays or Rodellega steals his place. I'd love both of them so another option is drop Rooney (another on big discount) and go with Drogs, Defoe, Rodallega. I'll decide tonight!

So those are all the dilemmas I'm currently thinking about, 24 players still on the radar.

Moving on for a quick look at Week 15

Saturday, 12 December 2009
Birmingham v West Ham, 15:00
Bolton v Man City, 15:00
Burnley v Fulham, 15:00
Chelsea v Everton, 15:00
Hull v Blackburn, 15:00
Man Utd v Aston Villa, 17:30
Stoke v Wigan, 12:45
Sunderland v Portsmouth, 15:00
Tottenham v Wolverhampton, 15:00

Sunday, 13 December 2009
Liverpool v Arsenal, 16:00

Tuesday, 15 December 2009
Birmingham v Blackburn, 20:00
Bolton v West Ham, 20:00
Man Utd v Wolverhampton, 20:00
Sunderland v Aston Villa, 19:45

Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Burnley v Arsenal, 19:45
Chelsea v Portsmouth, 19:45
Liverpool v Wigan, 20:00
Tottenham v Man City, 20:00

Week 15 is double week for everyone except Hull, Stoke, Everton & Fulham which means I'll probably rid myself of players like Duff & Baird (if I keep them for Week 14). In a week like this I feel you need all double gamers.

The teams playing 2 home games are: Chelsea, Tottenham, Man Utd, Liverpool, Sunderland, Birmingham, Bolton & Burnley. I wouldn't be getting excited about any of the away teams, including Arsenal & Man City, as they all have at least one very tough fixture. Wolves are surely the most unlucky as they travel to Old Trafford & White Hart Lane.

On the barndoor I'll be looking at attackers from Chelsea, Spurs & Man Utd (Rooney, Giggs, Defoe, Lennon, Lampard, Drogba), Darren Bent could sneak in, as could Matt Taylor. Birmingham defenders also interest me with two easy-ish home games. Torres could be back too...

So that rounds off my stuff for this week. I'm sure I don't need to remind you that Week 14 is the 1st Round of The AM Challenge Cup. 600 Teams, 6 Rounds, 1 Winner!

I really recommend you join my Facebook Group if you're one of the 600 teams. I may well be using Facebook to communicate with managers regarding the AM Challenge, with fixture reminders (which week each round falls on), notifications of results etc.

Let me know your Friday dilemmas. What's your team looking like? Thought about the barndoor yet?

Cheers,
AM

59 comments:

Anonymous said...

had traore but ditched him. can't rely on on almunia and verm & another ars def for 3 clean sheets..all eggs in 1 basket etc. plus traore loves a yellow card. 2 games played in lge, 2 cards, and got carded vs man city in lge cup !
they were all tougher games though. this one might end up being a cushy one for him. S.P.

Anonymous said...

What about Luke Young?

-mng-

Anonymous said...

Hi AM, I agree with your picks and i am also contemplating taking Rooney out and putting Defoe in his place. Everton just look horrible and Tottenham are looking great!! Have Rooney at 16 and i wish i had BDed Defoe at this point but we cant have everything. My team is looking like this...Kirk/Alex,Cuellar,Verm/Duff,Kpb,Taylor,Eagles/Drogba,Rodallega,Rooney(Defoe). Dilemma now, Good luck to all of you!! Vincent87

Owain said...

No love for matt taylor this week AM? Playing against a poor wolves side and is the heartbeat of the bolton team.

Anonymous said...

My biggest dilemma right now is Baird/Paintsil, while price isn't a factor in the decision. Baird plays in midfield and gets less yellow cards, while unlike Paintsil he's not a sure starter with Murphey back. They both get about the same amount of phantom points as well.
If anyone has any helpful information I'll be glad to read it.

SF

Assistant Manager said...

mng - Warnock & Collins could be back, in which case Luke Young would be dropped. Not a risk I'm willing to take.

Owain - Taylor was in my inital picks but this is my narrowed down list. With Villa & Arsenal at home I can't justify spending close to £16m on him.

SF - I'm concerned about Baird also.

Cheers,
AM

Afif said...

ahh.. the AM cup is up..good luck all

Anonymous said...

Carew or Eduardo - got 4 arsenal players already and not sure having 5 is a good idea.

Pahos Toffee

Anonymous said...

No love for SFletcher??

Owain said...

Ok, thanks for clarifying that AM. My team as it stands.. Kirkland, Vermaelen, Baird, Hreiderrson, Giggs, Duff, Boateng, Taylor, Drogba, Rodallega, Eduardo with 6.5 million left to spend. Was thinking of upgrading Baird to Scharner. What do people think? Could the money be better spent elsewhere?

Thanks in advance

Assistant Manager said...

Anon - No, there isn't any love for SFletcher, otherwise he'd be in my picks! He may well score but if he does I won't be regretting it. There are far better options about for the money.

Pahos - I'd go Eduardo as I've heard Carew has a hamstring strain.

Owain - Yeah upgrade either Baird or Herman. Scharner is playing attacking midfield so could be a good option.

One thing I've just thought - Traore may lose his place if Wenger decides he wants Silvestre's better height/heading ability vs a strong & tall Stoke side...any Arsenal fans agree?

Cheers,
AM

blanco said...

I'm no Arsenal fan:) but I saw Arsenal's Carling Cup game against City and Silvestre was simply awful, maybe the worst player on the pitch. SWP ripped him apart on every single occasion. Plus he looked terribly slow as a center back, I can't imagine him playing as full back.
It's a very important game for Wenger (three losses in a row is bad enough), so he could use the match fitness that Traore gained in the last weeks.

This is my opinion, don't hold me responsible for anything :D

As for my team, I can't decide whether I should keep Fab4 and a very bad midfielder or have Nasri+Arshavin or BFAY and an upgrade in defence. I have Verm/Traore/Givet(Hreidarsson).

What do you think AM?

Thanks,
Blanco

Anonymous said...

Team is

Kirkland
Alexander Verm Baird
Dempsey KPB Giggs Eagles
Drogs Rooney AN Other

I have left myself 11.84 to spend on a 3rd striker and need some suggestions.
Whoever starts alongside Defoe (Keane or Crouch)?
Carew against Hull?
Eduardo at 7.12 (Great value) and spend the remaining 4.72 on beefing up the KPB or Eagles pick? Both are close in price I have them at and I could pick up Dunn, Huddlestone, Bily, anyone under 11.50. I'm leaning towards Eduardo and Dunn.

BCB

kit said...

Is there a good chance of Giggs starting both games in a double week?

Anonymous said...

how about gerard this week?
i think he can get goal and many ot

Assistant Manager said...

Hi Blanco - thanks mate. I watched the game too & it was Traore playing at left back who was ripped to shreds by SWP! I think there is enough doubt for me to dis-count Traore just in case.

Your other dilemma is one I'm familiar with. If I have Fabs I have to have a really weak midfielder next to him, so I might go with a different Arsenal midfielder. From your selection I'd go Nasri & BFAY :)

AM

Anonymous said...

Hai AM

can u suggets the best 4 my team?
i have dilemma...

my team is

almunia

vermaelen cuellar alexander

dempsy duff cohen ohara gerrard

drogba eduardo


.........OR........

almunia

vermaelen cuellar alexander

dempsy duff cohen ohara

drogba rodallega agbonlahor


u think which is best?

Anonymous said...

who`s billy?

Afif said...

Fletcher from Man Utd is a good barndoor for next week double game

Anonymous said...

Hai AM

can u suggets the best 4 my team?
i have dilemma...

my team is

almunia

vermaelen cuellar alexander

dempsy duff cohen ohara gerrard

drogba eduardo


.........OR........

almunia

vermaelen cuellar alexander

dempsy duff cohen ohara

drogba rodallega agbonlahor


u think which is best?


-edi-

Bradley said...

My BDing was very spotty this week. I was in transit on Wed. and with relatives on Sat. and Sun. In short, if I drop out of the first round of the AM Challenge Cup, it's all my family's fault. :)

My line-up thus far:

Kirkland
Vermaelen/Cuéllar/Baird
Dempsey/Eagles/Fabregas/O'Hara
Drogba/Rooney/Eduardo

I'll probably replace Baird with WBrown. I'm not happy about Eduardo given that he's been looking less than sharp. I wanted Carew instead, but he's turned gimpy. Sadly, my less than stellar BDing has left me little room to manuever. I could of course drop Fabregas for someone cheaper, but Rooney's not going anywhere.

Anonymous said...

Hey guys since Carew is a doubt would it be wise to take Heskey? He has scored 2 goals in d last 3 games

Anonymous said...

@Bradley you might want to look into replacing eduardo with doyle, doyle is consistent and is playing a blackburn team that doesn't keep clean sheets.

My team seems a but risky to me so any feedback would be appreciated.

Kirkland
Alexander Gallas Ivanovic
Eagles O'hara KPB Kranjcar
Rooney Drogs Doyle

Saitofall

Enjolras said...

While I am not one for betting for / against Bolton (thx Neal + Jeremy), I can't help but seeing this as a must win game for Wolves. Last week was so bad that I figure I'll take a flier on Jarvis and Ebanks-Blake.

Anyone else have thoughts on the wolves game?

Anonymous said...

Hi AM, here is my line up
Kirk
Samuel/Bassong/Emerton
KPB/BFAY/Nasri/Krancjar/
Rooney/Yayga/Eds

I'm having dilemma, im planning to get Ngog replace yayga and upgrate Nasri to Arshavin. how you think AM? Arshavin or MTaylor? arrrghh...

Sephiroth

Bradley said...

The postponed Arsenal-Bolton match has been slated for Jan. 5 or 6 (date to be confirmed on Monday):

http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/arsenal-v-bolton-wanderers-fixture-update

Another double game week into the mix.

catlio said...

Hi AM. I think is a good write up talking about BD. I guess that's kind of missing from the main Fantasyepl blog.

I am considering Jummy + Billy against Rodallega + O'hara...which one you think is better pair?

Anonymous said...

Hi AM Good Write-up about the BD. I guess for fans like us, BD is important. I have bullard+Bily for this week, should I drop them for O'Hara + Rodallega?

For next week, i think BFAR is quite a good option.

Anonymous said...

Hey AM - I've heard no mention of Ngog from a single person, he's sure to start with torres out. what do you think, Ngog instead of Dindane or Eduardo? Also who's the better option, Rooney(at discount) or MTay...I'd have to switch my lineup of course.
Thanks,
(Honduran-Saul)

greginho said...

Sephiroth
mtaylor is a way better option he is the most consistent midfielder period. not one other does what he does week in and week out. he does not have as high a ceiling as some of the others. he has had only 4 weeks under 10 and they were 6, 6 7.5 anf 7.5 points. he doesn't get love here on AM's blog because AM doesn't like him and the other regulars stay away for some reason. arshavin, is so trendy, everyone is waiting for him to do what he did last year, again. arshavin has only had 4 weeks over 10 points and they were all 11. he is owned by 12% of the people and taylor is only owned by 1.68%. arshavin is averaging 7.05 for a cost of 13.87. he only puts out half of his cost. taylor gets 11.63 each week at a cost of 16.01. that is not ideal, but when you look at the other big players he seems better priced.
drogba 21.63 for 18.62 avg.
rooney 21.13 for 12.88 avg.
lampard 20.00 for 12.54 avg.
gerrard 19.69 for 12.50 avg.
defoe 18.68 for 13.33 avg.
van persie 18.91 for 15.36 avg.
torres 18.84 for 16.00 avg.
fagregas 17.02 for 13.92 avg.
giggs 16.43 for 12.68 avg.
bullard 16.27 for 9.38 avg.
taylor 16.01 for 11.63 avg.
wright phillips 15.60 for 8.69 avg.
lennon 15.20 for 11.58 avg.
rodellaga 14.64 for 12.14 avg.
i realize many people have some of these players at discounts but if you are buying from square one, you can have an idea that taylor is no different than most and slightly better than the popular ones.

Bradley said...

@Honduran-Saul: With Torres out, I'm also considering taking a chance on Ngog.

Anonymous said...

@Enjolras, I'm giving Jarvis a go this week too. sold duff. just a hunch really. bolton always concede lots of posession & chances even when they win. & jarvis scored q well last week considering how bad wolves played overall. with kightly injured, jarvis will hopefully not get subbed either. S.P.

greginho said...

honduran saul and bradley,
ngog was supposed to start last week, but kuyt got the start and the goal

Anonymous said...

@greginho - Thanks, I'll take that into consideration and keep an eye out at the liverpool news. I'll probably opt for either Eduardo or Dindane.
(Honduran-Saul)

Anonymous said...

ngog did start last week at everton as the main striker. kuyt got his usual inside-right spot in the 4-2-3-1. S.P.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/8377203.stm

Bradley said...

Actually, Ngog did start. He got subbed off for Benayoun at the 75th, but yes, Kuyt did get the goal. Ngog got only 2.00 points, but then again, Eduardo got 1.00 against Chelsea and 0.00 against Sunderland.

FWIW, Ngog got the goal in the CL but got subbed off for Benayoun at the 77th (I'm noticing a pattern).

bp9000 said...

@anon (2:46 PM) - "Billy" is Diniyar Bilyaletdinov of Everton. You can see why he has been assigned a nickname!

billthegrunt said...

Eduardo for Carew, KPB for Jarvis and I'm locked down!

Kirkland
W. Brown / Hreidarsson / Dunne
Fabregas / Milner / K.P. Boateng / Bilyaletdinov
Drogba / Agbonlahor / Eduardo

bean said...

@greginho - love the avg. point analysis

i've been tinkering a lot, but keep coming back to only changing a few from last week:

Captain Kirk,
Verm,G.Alex,Hreid
A.Young,Dempsey,O'Hara,Giggs,Nasri
Drogba,Rooney

that's with dropping Dunn,C.Cole because of injury and Wilk because I don't want him.

others still considering:
DEF-ivano,brown,scharner,l.young,dunne,baird
MID-mtay,lennon,kranj,swp,bily,jarvis,aqui,downing
ATT-H.Rod,Doyle,SEB,Eduardo,Carew/Heskey,Franco

btw, England v. USA go yanks!!!

Bradley said...

@bean: Obviously I'll have to root for the USA, but it's a little painful given that England's my backup team (i.e., the one I back after the US gets knocked out).

After France was picked for Group A and the booing and Charlize's "it's better that I say nothing" comment, Domenech looked like he'd eaten a bug.

bean said...

anyone know if K.Boat is taking set pieces? or is O'Hara still on that duty?

Anonymous said...

KPB takes penalties, O'Hara takes the rest.

SF

bean said...

@Bradley - stay loyal my friend, we'll need all the help we can get. i'm a bit worried with Davies out of the picture, but i'm used to being worried with the USMNT.

@greginho - back to the avg. point analysis, i was thinking it would be helpful to assign an avg points/cost ratio. MTay would be 11.63 avg divided by 16.01 cost to get a ratio of 0.73

Drogba 18.62/21.63 = 0.86 (or 18.62/10.76 = 1.73! at discount price)
HRod 12.14/14.64 = 0.82
Fab 13.92/17.02 = 0.81
Rooney 12.88/21.13 = 0.61 (or 12.88/16.05 = 0.80 at discount price)
MTay 11.63/16.01 = 0.73
Arshavin 7.05/13.87 = 0.51
etc...

would like to factor in amount of games played too, not sure how that would work. so a player that has a great avg over 1 game is not the same as great avg. over 10 games..

billthegrunt said...

Too bad YFF keeps numbers by week sted by game, breaking down the double-game weeks would make stats keeping more accurate.

Next season I'm keeping a log of all FF points by game. Shouldn't be difficult to do with Excel or even the old fashioned way, with a paper ledger and a pencil.

greginho said...

bean i was leaning towards doing the per cost avg, but became lazy.

Anonymous said...

Anyone know of good defenders at just less than 11.01? I have R.Johnson but if there's a beter replacement please let me know.

Anonymous said...

Finally saved my team. Thankz for ur advise gredinho, im decided to gamble on MTaylor and giving up Nasri and get O'hara.Here is the final line-up.

Kirkland
Traore/Emerton/Hreidarsson
O'hara/KPB/MTaylor/BFAY
Roonie/Yayga/Eds

Good luck to you all too.

Sephiroth

Anonymous said...

Looks very strong Sephiroth. Me, I've made so many changes this friday that I may have screwed everything up. Who knows...
Kirkland
Verm/G.Alexander/R.Johnson
Nasri/Young/Milner/Boateng
Rooney/Bent/Ngog
I still have enough cash to upgrade Ngog to Eduardo but EdS has been so terrible. Who knows, maybe with Nasri back they'll pose a greater attacking force...specially with Arsenal having 70% percent pocession in almost every one of their games. What do you guys think? Also, is Hreidarsson that good...I've noticed that most of the Fantasy Football participants have him or is it just that he's so cheap?
(Honduran-Saul)

Anonymous said...

go for dindane..he'll sure score tonight..believe me..

mehicoradio said...

interesting thing looking at MTay, if you take out his best and worst game (18.5, and 6 i believe) he only loses about .13 off his average.

Ross said...

I like Dindane too. Much better than Eduardo having watched Arsenal's last few games...

Other thing I am not sure about is Milner v Arshavin...

Kirkland
Nelson(cheap)/Verm/Dunne
Duff/Ohara/Giggs/Milner
Drogs/Rooney/Dindane

Anonymous said...

Well, my thoughts about Barndoor are actually focused right on - how do I get rid of Kirkland? Wigan are so unstable, and with 2 away games I actually count on them to lose both, or at least one, with Kirkland not getting much points.
Keepers:
Gomes - I think he's the best option in prospect. Of course Cech is better and has easier match-ups, but I'm not going for a keeper at 15mil+. Gomes has an easy encounter at home with Wolves, and if ManC lose heavily today, even Gomes' mid-week match will seem comfortable.
Fulop - Sunderland have 2 home games. One of them against Pompey. The catch? The second is against Villa, Pompey are improving, Sunderland aren't, Fulop is 8.58mil. It will be a huge gamble, which I won't take as I have O'Hara, but it can be worth it. He did get 7 saves last week.
Green - Cheaper, good. 2 away games though. And against Bolton and Brum, I just can't predict the scorelines. WH are unpredictable, and Green got 3 negative numbers on a row.
Robinson - He doesn't get negatives, and has 2 light match-ups, Brum and Hull. Both away from home. His cheap, and I believe he'll do well, but will it be good enough?

I think the keeper choice will be important for the double week, and as for now I'm going with Gomes, with PRobbo in consideration.

Good luck!
SF

Anonymous said...

Ross..i think its not between milner v arshavin..but giggs v arshavin..
since u dont have any arsenal's mid and forward, i think u should have arshavin in there..
u already have rooney in the team..so better spread you points..

Alex said...

OK, this is a tough week, my problem is the arse, no not in the medical sense.

See I has Fabregas and EdS all week, but then thought, hang on Stoke are no mugs, they have won at the emirates before and I even heard Wenger saying "but they are too physical, they hurt my beautiful players".

So here's where I am, Din Din's is in, Pompey I think will run away (that now means they will lose 4 nil!!) and am stuck with the below question?

Downing and Fabs
Milner and Arse Shaving
Young and Nasri which gives cash to upgrade Hairdrier at the back

Thought?

Anonymous said...

Gabriel Agnonlahor...Goals, Goals, Goals

Anonymous said...

who are these KPB and BFAY?

init said...

Alex, Downing/Milner/Arse SHaving/Giggs(12)/Fab/Nasri/EdS are also my problem area...like you I have settled on Dindane...

Downing - will he start? I think probably but is that good enough?
Milner - middle or wing?
Arse - Lightweight v Stoke but waiting for him to score 4 again and he is a great player
Giggs - hard to drop this season but always a chance of not playing
Fab - 17, could do well but might be expensive
Nasri - great value and likes a shot
EdS - due to start scoring but hasn't looked great and Prof Yattle may decide to give Vela a chance...

Got 2 places for these players. Currently Milner & Giggs...I have a funny feeling that although Arsenal don't appear to rely on Van PErsie when he is playing, that their 3 losses v his injury is too much of a coincidence...

Aarrrgghhhh....

Anonymous said...

Hello AM,

I have noticed you have totally skipped Berbatov from your list but since he is back and his price tag 12 justifies having him especially in a double week with 2 home games next round. I made a mistake and kept him for 2 straight weeks and he returned 0 points but since I am Bulgarian I am a little bit biased :) Now he is back to full fitness and on Wednesday he won a very prestigous non-football award "Man of the Year" in Bulgaria. This will boost his morale up and I believe we will see 3 games with 20+ points for him. This is my team so far:

Kirkland,
Verm, Alexander, Dunne
Giggs, Dempsey, Bily, KPB
Berbatov, Rodallega, Eduardo

If you have any recomendations - feel free to share them with me. Good luck today and enjoy your weekend guys! I love this blog! AM you deserve to be well paid for this blog! Keep up your fantastic work!

Rob said...

Is Benayoun a good bet? Will he play a full game (at home) and will he score if he does?

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