Week 15 - Sunday
For 45 minutes I thought that was the best I'd seen Liverpool play since their great run back in April/May; they made life impossible for Arsenal with their pressing, played neat, quick football & fully deserved their half time lead...it should've been more than 1-0.
But there is no excuse for the terrible 2nd half showing. They lost their energy, their fluency & their confidence. It it appeared their only solution to Arsenal levelling & then taking the lead (from a wonderful Arshavin strike) was to hoof long balls from defence in to the box. Unfortunately for them they found an outstanding Thomas Vermaelen in their way, managed no more shots on target & in the end Arsenal just about deserved their 1-2 victory. Where Benitez goes from here I have no idea.
In fantasy terms there were decent points for Arshavin, Vermaelen & Kuyt, but that was it really...Alumunia owners will be happy with the 5 points after it had initially looked like it could be a very bad day at the office. I didn't do any barndoor work as I'd already brought in Arshavin on Saturday.
From yesterday's gam I only had The Verm so the 7 points pushed me on to a distinctly below average 71 points after the first round of games. I know I need a massive midweek performance to get back up the standings, but I'm not confident. Kranjcar could be on the bench after his showing vs Wolves & I'm terrified of the backlash Chris Kirkland may face at Anfield. I can only hope Drogba, Valencia, Rooney & Defoe will fire for me to bring some respectability.
Now I'd like to say a huge thank you for all the wonderfully positive comments in response to my Saturday post - your support has been amazing & it's made me realise exactly why I put the effort in. I agree that I'll need to get a thicker skin & ignore the fools who offer nothing but criticism & hopefully with your help the blog will continue to go from strength to strength.
Thanks again, roll on the midweek fixtures! How are you doing at the half way stage?
Cheers,
AM
46 comments:
Kranjcar has been disappointing for me virtually everytime I pick him. (much like Bent is for you AM). If I were Harry, I don't think I'd play him mid-week.
Fingers crossed for more Didier magic though.
Wolfy Dave.
I ended with 121 points, but dropped 200 or so places, bit gutted with that.
I have been busy with the barndoor and have the below for next week, but still unsure with Torres at that price when I could get HRod and upgrade some of the midfield, thoughts?
Kirkland
Verm Heitinga Stearman
Aquaman Arshavin Ireland Walcott (really unsure on him)
Drogba Torres Tevez
where are sponsor links???
108.5 thanks to Arshavin,Vermalen and nasri
Amazed that we got the win up there as we were steamrolled in the first half, Wenger must of done a Fergie at half time
Happy with my points so far, a repeat performance this week would be good
Probo
Vermalen,Alexandra,Nelson
Nasri,Arshavin,Mikel,Milner
Drogs,Defoe, Rooney
will wait for mid week before any BD
AM keep up the good work mate
i scored 80points
reid, benitez,ivanovic,bent and arshavin helped me get there.
i would like some good midweek performances from my team
AM, I visit your blog almost every day and look forward to your posts that are incisive and well written, thank you.
Tuncay. 9 points, has patience paid off, we shall see.
100+ so far and have brought in Hennessey, Dunne, Billy, N'zog and Downing for next week.
@alex, are you sure your drop isn't just 'cos of the Arse/Liv points. I'm sure with 120 points you will be up on the week.
Delighted with the weekend. Sat on 117 with a full quota to play tomorrow / Weds.
Picking up Chucho 2 weeks ago has proved to be a great little earner (thanks for the tip). Also happy to see BFAR back on form.
More of the same please!
The question is starting to lurk - is there life after Drog come Jan and the ACN?
i'm sat on 94.5 after the first round of games this week. not quite the 100 points i was looking for by now but not far off. reckon i can still reach 200 with my team's matchups still to come!
As for the BD, i dropped Kuszczczcak, Givet, Larsson, Valencia, Mikel and Bent and currently have the following
Kirkland - who's price will prob drop again after midweek, but faces Bolton at home
RJohnson - keeping him for a while! Good earner!
Silvinho -depends whether bridge comes back or not but produced just over his value so far
Traore - will have to see if he is fit v Hull, otherwise Silvestre comes in
Aquilani
Arshavin -both Aquaman and Arsh will stay for a couple of weeks. Aqua will want to prove himself soon and Arsh is only man up front for the gunners
Bily - is bily. So had to get him back
N'Zog - hard to ignore him at the moment. Again could prove a nive earner v Bolton
Drogs - for now
Tevez -
Agbonlahor - Both played well, so far this week, depending on injuries and 2nd games, one could go to be replaced by HRod. not sure yet
I may yet bring back Larsson as Brum are the in form team right now, but will only bring him back after they've played Chelsea and United (so prob early Jan)
As far as ACN goes, some people are saying they will keep Drogba to see when Ivory Coast drop out so as not to lose too much discount. Also, Ivory coast have come 4th and 2nd in the last 2 competitions and haven't won it since 1992, but with Drogba undoubtedly one of the best strikers in the world at the moment, and the strength of their squad, I think they will want to make the most of it and push for the win this time around. So...I will probably offload him and jump on Anelka (not literally) when I get the chance before his price jumps. But he stays at least until he jets off for the tournament!
A.M, something i've benn giving a lot of thought to latley is Drogs and the ANC as metioned above!
I am seriously thinking about holding on to him during his absence, I ,as many others do, hold him at 10.66, on current form he should leave us with his value in or around 20-21. A substantial disscount, now I've noticed that players values only drop when their average points ratio drops, so if a player does not play, like Arteta, his value will only drop in small increments,maybe a set value....who knows!! what I'm tring to say is this...Is anyone prepared to sacrafice 50 or so points u might score with a replacement during the ACN or take a gamble and hold him?I've had plenty of o.k weeks with 10 players and I've tried this tactic recently with Billy during his suspension, now it hasn't paid off spectacularly but I still have a good discount and I think, a decent FF Player. I'm top of my private league, sit in 1279th overall and scored 115 points this weekend, my thinking is that maybe I can afford to take this gamble and reap the benifits later in the season ,or will it all blow up in my face ?
Another disappointing Weekend for me, only 1 goal from Arsh, and then he got a Yellow card.
No assist for Fabregas, and I'm sure Matt Taylor flicked on for one of Boltons goals, or was i imagining it?
So that's 12 points that could have been mine if i were a little luckier.
Just over 50 points has left me hanging on in the top 3000 after being in the top 200 just a few weeks ago.
I seriously need points mid-week. I do have better match-ups on the whole to come on Tuesday and Wednesday so i'm Hopefull.
So far i barn doored Tevez, but i'm interested in getting Torres if he gets his sharpness back on Wednesday. Also bought back Bily, and got in Aquilani.
My early team for the weekend is...
Kirk
Verm, Alexander, Hreidarsson
Arsh, Fabs, Bily, Aquilani
Franco, Tevez, Rooney
I'm reasonably happy with how it looks, Hreid will probably change if a cheap option becomes available.
I'm looking for Franco, Jerome, Fabregas, Arsh and Mtay to do big things during the week and restore a bit of dignity to my stuttering side. I know how Rafa feels now, dumped out of the cup, and falling fast down the league :P
I'm having a great week so far, with 121.5 points after the first round of games. I think I really deserve it after the horrible weeks I had - 11, 12 and 13 (54.5, 37 and 68 points repectively). Almost the entire year I was around the 1500th place, and on those 3 weeks I dropped to below 6000th. Last week, with 100.5 points, I gained about 800 spots, and for now this week has brought me to 2828th in the ranking. It will still take a lot to overcome the damage these weeks have caused me, but be sure I'll do anything to get back on my feet.
For next week, so far:
Almunia
Vermaelen Bassong Cuellar
O'Hara Nasri Arshavin Bily
Drogba Defoe Tevez
I'm not very pleased, but there aren't many good options as most of the match-ups are really tight. Almunia is a question mark, but at home to Hull he'll probably stay, while Tevez's consistency will be tested on mid-week. I'm trying to get rid of Bassong, maybe for Heitinga, but I currently don't have the money. Other fears are about Nasri and Bily, but I believe that with decent match-ups they're phantom points machines, and both are worth goals.
SF
AM
i think you need to realize that it is cyclical. your average results, lately, are part of the season. i am in that position too. i have dropped off the face of the planet. i have been giving advice and reading everyone else's, but when it came to my picks i get the mids who get 2 or 4.5 points. everyone else, gets 14 or 21.5. it is so annoying. it is also heartbreaking to see the drop in standings. earlier in the season, i was between 15-20th place in the barn door group and flirting with top 1000. you and toffee dave were comfortably behind me. now you are ahead me i am 56th and you are in 32nd spot. your teams have done better than mine, so i thing you need to relax and wait for some of the better weeks to happen. i hope i can catch up with you before that, though. here is an example of how bad my teams have been, so that you can put less pressure on yourself: 45, 114, 30, 107, 62.5, 59 and 116.5 so far this week. my teams were all great looking teams, but the players just didn't perform. it was so hard to constantly tell people that i had 45, when everyone else had 75 or 110. that was really the toughest thing.
oh by the way i am ranked 4424th in the whole game
My team this week was :
Kirk
Verm, Ivan, Bassong
Valencia, Nasri, Malouda, M. Taylor
Tuncay, Drogba, Rooney
& scored 80 points.
Am a bit gutted this so many other teams have done well as this score dropped me 400 places, normally this would see me climb a few.
Am sure I will more than double that midweek tho with my team having easier 2nd games & Malouda hopefully starting.... My only fear like AM said is Kirk having a nightmare game.
BD
So on the BD I have grabbed R. Dunne, Arshavin & Cech.
Dunne & Arsh for the match-ups, Cech because his price has dropped. If Chelsea's defence goes back to it's normal ways then Cech at his current price will more than cover his value. However it's hard to field a strong midfield now with Drogba, Ronney Arsh & Cech taking up around 60% of my budget.
You not tempted with Cech AM ?
I currently have 5 points spare & an empty midfield space so someone will have to go. Also I really want to fit downing in as I he seems to pick up Phantom Points quite well so if he gets an assist or goal every game or so he will more than be worth his current value & in a team that is reaching for the top 4 he i bound to get opportunities.
Team Crispy
Happy with my 110points. Bowyer, Benitez(scoring no goals)Anelka, and O Hara doing the main dmg. Krancjar better up the ante on Wednesday as Modric returns. BD'd Tevez looking forward for midweek games before settling on a team. Been reading this blog for 2months I've soared to top of my league despite taking the gamble on taking drog out. Cos me and my fellow league member had too similar teams and took a gamble the one week that drog was out injured and didnt get the chance to BD back. Thanks anyway to AM and other bloggers for the advice even tho i take my own gambles. :)
I'm on 88.5. Not bad, but I was expecting a lot more because from my premium players (MTay, Defoe, Rooney, Drogba) only the Drogs did the business. Jussi gave me a positive 0 and the back three (Verms, Givet and Bassong) did OK. BFAR and Mikel did OK also, but not Cohen.
So I'm really hoping the non-performing premium players redeem themselves midweek.
Ovche Pole Blancos
73.5 points with 10 to come in midweek - really could do with adding 100+ from this lot to give me a decent double week score.
Barndoored Walcott, Almunia, Traore and Aquaman, but to be honest not sure if I will keep any of them yet. Thinking of Young and Brown instead of Aqua and Walcott, or changing to 3-5-2 and picking up O'Hara instead of Eduardo.
Either way, not going to over-think it at present - will wait till Thursday before doing anything
Paphos Toffee
Hi guys, can anyone tell me how to barndoor players?
I have tried doing that but after their games are played, their values still changes accordingly. Do i need to save the changes in order to successfully barndoor players.
Any advice will be appreciated.
Yep, you need to save changes mate
I had 107 pts at the midway mark.
I have been thinking about what to do with Drogba during the ANC since September and I still can't decide if I keep him or lose him...
STLRam01
Is it just me, or does Arshavin's facial expression during goal celebrations make him look like he's suffered blunt force trauma to the skull?
I have 120 points so far, which is a nice comeback after last week's 53 (my worst so far). Eagles, Larsson, Reid, Drogba, and Chucho were the standouts. Vermaelen and Steinsson also deserve credit for returning 7.0 and 7.5 respectively w/o the benefit of CSs. Sadly, Kaboul's goal at the last minute chopped 15 points off Fülöp's score (no CS, goal conceded, draw instead of win).
As I recall, in each of the DG weeks so far, the second round was a let down for me, so I'm hoping for better this time. At a minimum Rooney and Lennon need to step it up.
120 for me after the weekends. Having a good week so far but I hope I get similiar results in the next coming matches, thats what having Robbo make you.
Didnt do much BD besides Anelka and he might gotta go for Torres ( or Rooney go instead). BD Anelka this early for the preparation of ANC, he will be the highest forward in Chelsea formation and Kalou or someone else will fill in his shoes as the second striker/wing striker. I figure Drogba has one ( probably only one game) or 2 games left the most and that wont have time for Anelka price to go down. Chelsea also has great fixture during ANC so I need to consider this carefully. Might as well dropping Rooney ( as he cost more than Anelka) but I still have time for thinking.
Cheers!
Ruki - Kalou leaves for ANC as well. He's playing for Ivory Coast just like Drogs.
Yeah i forgot about that, but the more reason Anelka is going to be the spearhead.
I'm torn on the Drogba / ACN thing as well. I think it's totally sound to keep him, but I've made enough mistakes and fallen far enough behind that I probably can't afford to. I've got to take risks at this point, and I really can't afford to leave points on the table. Basically I've got to hope that my picks those 4 weeks return like 75-100 points instead of 40-50, that Drogba is actually out the maximum amount of time possible, and that some good cheap striker talent (come on down, David Villa and Kun Aguero!) comes in on the window. None of those things are impossible, but just keeping Drogs is the safer bet to me. I can easily see Drogba only being out 2-3 weeks, me picking around the points with guys like Bent, Defoe, and Gabby like I usually do, and only getting like 20 points out of dropping him, which would be a disaster.
I'm around 2600th right now. If I really nail the holiday schedule and get up between 1000th and 1500th, I'll probably keep him. If I'm still chasing by then, I've gotta drop him and hope I can pick well in his absence.
Personally I think it time to leave the good ship Drogba, and start looking for his replacement before he (whoever that might be) gets too expensive.
Fair enough, someone might turn up in the transfer window, but its a gamble.
Plus if you think, you can do without ten mill (the minimum i think) funds for at least four games, then good luck to you.
What about Torres? Is he just faking it? or is he back? He would soften the loss of Drogba, but Torres price is way too high right now.
If the rumors are true about Pato, Drogba might have less playing time.
a-dog
A disappointing 82.5 points on the first leg of the double gameweek. Fulop came within minutes of the CS and 10 more points and Berbatov could have had two goals but was clearly not in form. Hopefully that changes tomorrow.
My early team for next week:
Kirkland
Dunne/Traore/Neill
Bily/Arshavin/Milner/Walcott
Tevez/Saha/SEB
They way Tevez is playing right now, he's a must have in almost anyone's side, even though at 16.25 he's bit steep. BDed him at 13.16.
Glad to read I'm not the only one who's tanking over the last few weeks. It wasn't that long ago I was in the top 10 of my blog league. Now I'm bumping along in 27th place. I'm spending just as much time on my picks but I'm down to my last Week One starter (Drogba, of course). I started losing my touch when Diamanti got hurt, but that can't be the reason. At any rate, going into the midweek games with 80.5 points, hoping that Drogba, Defoe and Chucho come through, and that Kirkland doesn't embarass himself again.
I find it a little amazing that some managers are considering holding Drogba for 3-4 games. We're not talking about "wasting" a striker slot with a $1 non-playing Tuncay, at minimum it's $10!! (up to 16 or 18 for some, though I imagine he'll be easier to give up for those who have him expensively). For me that's a huge chunk of change to forfeit over 4 games. The risk of $1-4 player getting a zero is different that $10 in my eyes when you consider what you could get for that amount. Maybe not super striker choices right now, but off the top of my head,MF players like Nasri, Bily, Walcott, O'Hara, Deco, Eagles, Etherington, Benayoun could be had for under $10. I would rather try to get some points from the likes of them over 4 games than get a fat goose egg from a non-playing Drogba. Any additional points will help. Sure, I don't expect anyone to deliver Drogba-esque returns, but something is better than nothing I feel.
In order to effectively make up for missing 4 games, Drog will have to really go on a HUGE tear and score well and then some each time after he's back. Can he maintain his average? Maybe. Don't forget that he had a couple 3-5 point games in between the great returns.
Put another way, will he score enough points the rest of the way (after his return) to cover off 4 weeks of zero, compared to the scores you could get during those 4 weeks PLUS the rest of the way? I'm not sure the difference will be great enough to take a zero 4 times.
This doesn't even consider if he gets hurt in the ACN...
Anyway, some early food for thought. Say, AM, closer to the ACN, I think you should do a post about the "Drogba Dilemma" and we can all have a more full discussion about it...
great to hear ur view dave, gives me more perspective on my dilema, agreed some points from a 10+ player during his absence will defo help, and the prospect of him gettin injured or loosing form has come to mind in deliberating, the one thing that tilts me toward keeping him tho is that IF he returns to current form after the ANC, he will be a must have again for FF managers, so most people would buy him back and then I would have 10m more to spend than my rivals, so i take a hit for four or so games but have an advantage for the remainder of the season.
A paltry 74.5pts for me so far and the next person above me in 2 of my leagues just pushed a 130.5pt first weekend score. Oh man if my team doesn't pick it up I am doomed!
Put another way, will he score enough points the rest of the way (after his return) to cover off 4 weeks of zero, compared to the scores you could get during those 4 weeks PLUS the rest of the way?
Well, quite possibly. He's scored 83 more points than the next-best player in the game so far. And, for those of us who have him for 10.66, he's scored far, far more than the next-best player available under 12.00 at this point. Bent, Yayga, and Saha are the reasonable possible replacements, assuming you can dredge up an extra 2-3 units, which would be difficult for me right now and probably require a downgrade to a filler elsewhere.
When he leaves, there will be 18 games left. Assuming he misses 4, he has 14 games left to score when he comes back. If he averages the 18 points he is now the rest of the way, that's 252. If you get Yayga's production of 11 per game (Bent and Saha are only 9.5 per) out of the full 18 games, that's only 198, and you're likely paying more for it too. So, yeah, it's totally defensible, because Drogs is just that good this year.
But, it's by no means a lock. Maybe you pick really well in that slot and luck into some Keane or Defoe-like huge weeks, and are able to average significantly more than 11 a week. Or maybe a great new player comes in at transfer prices and scores on a level close to what Drogs did(but nothing's keeping Drogs owners from adding them too, of course.) Or maybe Drogs drops off form, or gets injured. But if he does keep anywhere near that pace and people you are up against hold him @ 10.66, you'll be very, very hard pressed to keep up with them those last 14 weeks. It'd be like having to compete against people who own C.Ron for 10 units in years past, which was never even a remote possibility. He is by far the must-own player in the league this year, which has been disguised a bit because everyone has owned him relatively cheaply. Once you have to pay full price to own him and be able to keep pace, things get quite a bit more difficult.
@ J. Dunn - thx for the numerical analysis! That is exactly what I was suggesting be considered and thinking of calculating, but handn't yet gotten my lazy butt around to doing or to looking up the details LOL. You beat me to it, and the info is helpful. Cheers, sir!
great thoughts/analysis on Drogs here..
don't think i have much more to say. Only that he's averaging 18.00 per game, which is almost 3 units higher than RVP, the next highest avg.. anyone remember what CRon was avg. last year? I feel like it wasn't even quite that high..
Anyway, the main gamble is if he maintains his form after he returns.. Even if he wasn't leaving for ACN, that would still be a question to consider. Could he possibly maintain this kind of form all season? Especially with the Chelsea squad adapting to not having him for a few weeks... real tough call with over 10 unit discount.
AM,
your blog is my best reference for the selection of my team players.
mwhile yahoo fantasy blog also my reference for the opposite propose players.
thanks and keep up the good works!
NB
@Bean: I seem to remember CRon having around 12-13pt average at the end of the season. He had some really great games then that 5-6 week stretch where he got a Red card and produced very little.
I am seriously considering keeping Drogba and opting to buy Anelka given Chelsea's fixtures. Probably sacrifice a bit in midfield to accomodate Rooney, Drogba, Anelka.
Come one Utd 5-0 (Valencia x3, Rooney x1 w/ 3 assists and Gibson x1) Whoa did I really just root for Utd? I need my Liverpool boys to get back up to par. Still fiathful believe come on you Reds!
DROGBA "To keep or not to keep"
An attempt at bad math:
Drogs has played 15 with average of 18 pts (two of those were .5 and 2)
Chelsea (and others) have 18 games left once ACN starts. Drogs will play 14 games after ACN (assuming he gets his 5th yellow before ACN).
I have him at 10+..... so, the question is, "WHO at 10+ can average 14 x 18 = 252 over 18 games; so, 252 / 18 = 14 pt. avg.?"
If you look at current prices and those who have 14 point averages (only Torres, Defoe, and a few others come close) and ALL of their prices are well over 10+
This also assumes that you do not buy him back at 21 (current rate, post ACN rate?) If you do buy him back you would then essentially be spending an extra 10 a week over his 14 remaining games.
So, can you find two players combined at a cost of 21 that can match his average? (right now Dunn 10.88/10.5 and Verm 9.97/9.1 are the only two players combined that come close to spending 21 to get 18 pt avg.)
If you can, then drop him; if you can't then keep him.
I just reread this and am not sure how much sense this makes.... sorry if your head is spinning, mine is. Like I said, "Bad math"
Good luck!
Tigers
@ JDunn .... took me so long to write, did not read your post. Sorry for the redundancy.
Good work!
I'm seriously considering keeping him and just let him get a 0. I did that with Bily during his suspension, and now I have him at 4.7. Though recently his points are not that good, he still seems to be a popular pick. I might do the same with Drogba this time
5 Jan, Stoke City v Fulham
6 Jan, Arsenal v Bolton Wanderers
Anyone has idea which game week will these two games belong to?
1) they go to gw17 (these 4 teams then have a triple week!)
2) they go to gw18 so only these 4 teams have a double on gw18 (the most ideal)
3) they become a separate game week with only 2 matches (will ruin a lot of people's long term plans)
thoughts?
hoping arshavin will start doing his points like last season =)
go gunners!
as for the weekends, got 132.5 and didnt realize i was holding on to wilkinson of stoke...1 gamer and 0 point! whack!
anyway, im predicting something from walcott...BD?
I had 83 points..this week was a disaster!!!!!!!..and I would rather see Morreypaul gay porn video..
I'm very worried about tonight - only 4 players from my team are playing, while the other 7 play tomorrow. I hope I won't drop down the ranking. For that to happen I need CS from Brum (RJohnson&Hart), which probably won't be that hard as they are at home and against Blackburn "two 0-0 in a row" Rovers. A goal from Benitez should also do the trick. I hope for a good performance from Valencia too, and if he'll do well without causing Rooney to score well too and ManU to win, I'll be the happiest man alive!
I'm eager to watch Tevez and Cuellar again as they're my BDs, and also watch Bily in the Europa League. Nasri should stay against Hull along Arshavin, and if I find a way to switch Bassong with Heitinga, be sure I'll use it.
Great games tonight, I can't wait.
SF
@ anon 3.04am
Wow. Not having games on the weekend of 2nd & 3rd January does make things messy.
I hope it's not a triple week.
how the hell did cech f*** up so bad.
ruinned my week. Managed 85, but cant help wonder how much that coudl have been with a performance from cech.
P.S. Never gonna spend more than 10 on a keeper again. (have almunia bd'd in my squad) :P
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