Tuesday, 19 January 2010

Price vs Points Analysis


Remember the "rule" we often discuss on here? If you pick a player, make sure you think he'll get at least his value in points that week.

e.g. If you pay £13m for Valencia, you should expect 13 points from him, if you pay £19m for Lampard you should expect 19 points from him.

It's by no means an exact science (discounts come in to it), but if you try to go by this rule & you're pretty good at guessing/your players do the job then you should get close to 100 points per week. 100 points per week throughout a season will get you close to the Top 100 come the end.

As we've just passed the halfway point of the season I decided to analyse all the top players "Price vs Points" ratio. Obviously some people hold players at big discounts, so where this is the case I've tried to include them at both their current & discounted price.

You may have a player at a discount that I don't mention twice & if you do then you probably have a really good bargain on your hands. I've also only included player who have played a 3rd of their clubs games (e.g. 6-7 games minimum).

Despite the fact that there are lots the variables such as opponent (easy games vs tough away games) I still think it makes quite interesting reading....


 Player
 Price
 Average
 Total
 Points / Unit
1
 D. Drogba [Discount]
 10.66
 16.56
 298.00
 1.55
2
 A. Diamanti
 10.25
 9.23
 138.50
 0.90
3
 D. Ngog
 6.26
 5.50
 60.50
 0.88
4
 C. Tévez [Discount]
 13.80
 11.48
 229.50
 0.83
5
 B. Zamora
 9.19
 7.59
 129.00
 0.83
6
 N. Anelka [Discount]
 15.20
 11.97
 203.50
 0.79
7
 R. Blake
 6.29
 4.95
 99.00
 0.79
8
 W. Rooney [Discount]
 17.00
 13.36
 280.50
 0.79
9
 K. Doyle
 9.51
 7.47
 127.00
 0.79
10
 A. Dindane
 8.89
 6.96
 83.50
 0.78
11
 R. van Persie
 19.75
 15.36
 169.00
 0.78
12
 D. Drogba
 21.33
 16.56
 298.00
 0.78
13
 H. Rodallega
 14.24
 11.00
 220.00
 0.77
14
 S. Fletcher
 7.66
 5.88
 123.50
 0.77
15
 Benny McCarthy
 6.79
 5.11
 71.50
 0.75
16
 I. Klasnic
 10.28
 7.43
 104.00
 0.72
17
 L. Saha
 12.08
 8.63
 164.00
 0.71
18
 C. Bellamy
 11.50
 8.19
 147.50
 0.71
19
 C. Benitez
 8.42
 5.97
 113.50
 0.71
20
 J. McFadden
 9.04
 6.37
 121.00
 0.70
21
 J. Defoe
 16.28
 11.47
 218.00
 0.70
22
 Carlton Cole
 10.50
 7.35
 95.50
 0.70
23
 Eduardo
 9.85
 6.81
 109.00
 0.69
24
 D. Kuyt
 10.95
 7.57
 159.00
 0.69
25
 C. Jerome
 10.79
 7.37
 110.50
 0.68
26
 C. Tévez
 16.84
 11.48
 229.50
 0.68
27
 F. Torres
 19.91
 13.57
 203.50
 0.68
28
 K. Jones
 10.87
 7.29
 124.00
 0.67
29
 P. Crouch
 9.99
 6.67
 140.00
 0.67
30
 E. Adebayor
 11.43
 7.62
 99.00
 0.67
31
 G. Agbonlahor
 12.62
 8.31
 174.50
 0.66
32
 J. Roberts
 6.98
 4.56
 73.00
 0.65
33
 W. Rooney
 20.82
 13.36
 280.50
 0.64
34
 D. Bent
 15.15
 9.71
 204.00
 0.64
35
 F. Piquionne
 7.13
 4.53
 77.00
 0.64
36
 E. Nevland
 7.14
 4.42
 57.50
 0.62
37
 R. Keane
 12.53
 7.65
 130.00
 0.61
38
 J. Elmander
 7.80
 4.44
 40.00
 0.57
39
 D. Berbatov
 15.06
 8.56
 154.00
 0.57
40
 N. Bendtner
 7.99
 4.50
 40.50
 0.56
41
 J. Carew
 7.25
 3.97
 71.50
 0.55
42
 Andrew Johnson
 7.33
 4.00
 32.00
 0.55
43
 Robinho
 10.72
 5.80
 58.00
 0.54
44
 N. Anelka
 23.14
 11.97
 203.50
 0.52

 Player
 Price
 Average
 Total
 Points / Unit
1
 D. Dunn
 10.35
 9.63
 115.50
 0.93
2
 T. Cohen
 6.53
 5.72
 91.5
 0.88
3
 J. Stanislas
 6.07
 5.27
 79
 0.87
4
 R. Giggs
 12.44
 10.60
 159.00
 0.85
5
 L. Bowyer
 9.64
 8.16
 155.00
 0.85
6
 J. O'Hara
 8.06
 6.78
 108.50
 0.84
7
 Jordi Gómez
 5.87
 4.92
 88.5
 0.84
8
 K. Boateng
 8.60
 7.20
 108.00
 0.84
9
 A. Reid
 12.01
 10.03
 170.50
 0.84
10
 Lee Chung-Yong
 8.17
 6.80
 102.00
 0.83
11
 F. Fabregas
 17.51
 14.50
 246.50
 0.83
12
 Sebastian Larsson
 10.03
 8.20
 164.00
 0.82
13
 D. Fletcher
 6.18
 5
 85
 0.81
14
 M. Jarvis
 6.94
 5.55
 105.5
 0.80
15
 M. Petrov
 9.57
 7.65
 99.50
 0.80
16
 Deco
 8.82
 7.05
 77.50
 0.80
17
 N. Milijas
 7.98
 6.36
 89.00
 0.80
18
 D. Duff
 13.61
 10.74
 204.00
 0.79
19
 V. Abou Diaby
 9.61
 7.50
 127.50
 0.78
20
 M. Diamé
 5.06
 3.94
 63
 0.78
21
 M. Essien
 9.77
 7.32
 102.50
 0.75
22
 A. Lennon
 13.51
 10.06
 181.00
 0.74
23
 C. N'Zogbia
 10.94
 7.98
 159.50
 0.73
24
 J. Collison
 7.75
 5.62
 95.5
 0.73
25
 C. Eagles
 9.67
 6.98
 139.50
 0.72
26
 D. Bilyaletdinov
 9.35
 6.65
 86.50
 0.71
27
 J. Milner
 13.01
 9.20
 184.00
 0.71
28
 T. Huddlestone
 9.41
 6.65
 133.00
 0.71
29
 N. Kranjcar
 11.75
 8.28
 165.50
 0.70
30
 E. Eboue
 6.66
 4.64
 51
 0.70
31
 W. Elliott
 6.02
 4.19
 88
 0.70
32
 M. Etherington
 10.16
 7.03
 140.50
 0.69
33
 F. Lampard [Discount]
 18.79
 13.00
 260.00
 0.69
34
 S. Hunt
 12.90
 8.83
 185.50
 0.68
35
 M. Taylor
 15.49
 10.50
 189.00
 0.68
36
 S. Wright-Phillips
 10.76
 7.26
 123.50
 0.67
37
 D. Murphy
 9.59
 6.46
 77.50
 0.67
38
 Z. Gera
 7.02
 4.65
 79
 0.66
39
 M. Wilson
 5.98
 3.96
 55.5
 0.66
40
 Denilson
 12.83
 8.45
 84.50
 0.66
41
 J. Koumas
 6.75
 4.44
 35.5
 0.66
42
 Nani
 14.45
 9.33
 84.00
 0.65
43
 C. Dempsey
 14.11
 9.05
 190.00
 0.64
44
 A. Riera
 7.59
 4.78
 43
 0.63
45
 S. Gerrard
 17.71
 11.12
 189.00
 0.63
46
 A. Ramsey
 7.62
 4.7
 70.5
 0.62
47
 Y. Benayoun
 10.31
 6.28
 125.50
 0.61
48
 G. Barry
 10.77
 6.53
 130.50
 0.61
49
 F. Lampard
 21.47
 13.00
 260.00
 0.61
50
 M. Ballack
 11.40
 6.85
 116.50
 0.60
51
 S. Pienaar
 13.89
 8.17
 122.50
 0.59
52
 Antonio Valencia
 14.45
 8.45
 177.50
 0.58
53
 A. Arshavin
 13.43
 7.74
 147.00
 0.58
54
 L. Modric
 11.27
 6.38
 51.00
 0.57
55
 E. Diouf
 7.43
 4.19
 67
 0.56
56
 T. Walcott
 7.23
 4.06
 32.5
 0.56
57
 M. Carrick
 7.66
 4.15
 83
 0.54
58
 Ashley Young
 14.24
 7.53
 150.50
 0.53
59
 F. Malouda
 13.23
 6.97
 111.50
 0.53

 Player
 Price
 Average
 Total
 Points / Unit
1
 T. Vermaelen [Discount]
 6.00
 8.48
 178.00
 1.41
2
 C. Baird [Discount]
 5.00
 5.88
 94.00
 1.18
3
 G. Alexander [Discount]
 5.60
 6.02
 126.50
 1.08
4
 R. Stearman
 4.02
 3.8
 57
 0.95
5
 T. Vermaelen
 9.96
 8.48
 178.00
 0.85
6
 C. Samba
 8.46
 6.84
 130.00
 0.81
7
 R. Nelsen
 7.58
 6.08
 115.50
 0.80
8
 A. Wilkinson
 5.8
 4.63
 69.5
 0.80
9
 B. Ivanovic
 9.47
 7.33
 110.00
 0.77
10
 C. Berra
 6.77
 5.23
 78.50
 0.77
11
 S. Distin
 6.79
 5.22
 83.50
 0.77
12
 Roger Johnson
 10.70
 8.17
 171.50
 0.76
13
 J. Collins
 11.42
 8.65
 112.50
 0.76
14
 S. Dann
 8.71
 6.59
 105.50
 0.76
15
 J. Craddock
 9.10
 6.84
 109.50
 0.75
16
 R. Dunne
 10.37
 7.78
 155.50
 0.75
17
 S. Carr
 7.38
 5.48
 109.50
 0.74
18
 G. Givet
 7.16
 5.30
 106.00
 0.74
19
 Ashley Cole [Discount]
 10.50
 7.74
 147.00
 0.74
20
 R. Carvalho
 9.21
 6.72
 107.50
 0.73
21
 L. Ridgewell
 8.52
 6.14
 86.00
 0.72
22
 P. Scharner
 8.27
 5.83
 116.50
 0.70
23
 T. Ben Haim
 7.77
 5.47
 87.50
 0.70
24
 E. Insua
 9.83
 6.92
 131.50
 0.70
25
 Y. Kaboul
 9.79
 6.89
 124.00
 0.70
26
 T. Mears
 7.76
 5.38
 113.00
 0.69
27
 W. Gallas
 10.17
 7.05
 148.00
 0.69
28
 C. Cuéllar
 9.62
 6.58
 131.50
 0.68
29
 S. Jordan
 4.49
 3.05
 64
 0.68
30
 W. Bridge
 7.76
 5.25
 73.50
 0.68
31
 E. Boyce
 9.11
 6.16
 98.50
 0.68
32
 G. Johnson
 13.44
 9.06
 154.00
 0.67
33
 D. Higginbotham
 7.53
 5.05
 50.50
 0.67
34
 J. Bosingwa
 9.28
 6.19
 49.50
 0.67
35
 G. Cahill
 12.25
 8.08
 153.50
 0.66
36
 R. Shawcross
 8.56
 5.64
 101.50
 0.66
37
 L. Baines
 13.63
 8.98
 179.50
 0.66
38
 J. Pantsil
 8.62
 5.64
 101.50
 0.65
39
 M. Dawson
 11.21
 7.31
 95.00
 0.65
40
 P. Chimbonda
 9.71
 6.31
 113.50
 0.65
41
 J. Terry
 9.85
 6.40
 134.50
 0.65
42
 M. Turner
 8.72
 5.65
 96.00
 0.65
43
 B. Sagna
 10.21
 6.61
 125.50
 0.65
44
 L. King
 9.88
 6.35
 63.50
 0.64
45
 J. Heitinga
 9.06
 5.82
 99.00
 0.64
46
 B. Emerton
 8.75
 5.61
 78.50
 0.64
47
 P. Evra
 11.76
 7.52
 165.50
 0.64
48
 M. Richards
 8.97
 5.72
 91.50
 0.64
49
 P. Bardsley
 5.56
 3.53
 60
 0.63
50
 K. Touré
 10.95
 6.94
 118.00
 0.63
51
 A. Hughes
 8.32
 5.26
 110.50
 0.63
52
 Luke Young
 8.27
 5.20
 52.00
 0.63
53
 N. Belhadj
 11.57
 7.23
 79.50
 0.62
54
 B. Assou-Ekotto
 12.20
 7.58
 151.50
 0.62
55
 J. Lescott
 9.84
 6.07
 85.00
 0.62
56
 W. Brown
 9.34
 5.73
 74.50
 0.61
57
 G. Clichy
 11.30
 6.89
 62.00
 0.61
58
 D. Agger
 9.11
 5.55
 61.00
 0.61
59
 S. Warnock
 11.15
 6.75
 121.50
 0.61
60
 V. Corluka
 9.07
 5.48
 115.00
 0.60
61
 A. Gardner
 9.01
 5.40
 81.00
 0.60
62
 Ashley Cole
 13.03
 7.74
 147.00
 0.59
63
 M. Upson
 8.75
 5.19
 83.00
 0.59
64
 K. Zayatte
 9.34
 5.50
 99.00
 0.59
65
 G. McCartney
 5.58
 3.26
 62
 0.58
66
 C. Basham
 4.93
 2.86
 20
 0.58
67
 F. Aurelio
 9.14
 5.29
 63.50
 0.58
68
 T. Bramble
 9.56
 5.43
 108.50
 0.57
69
 M. Figueroa
 9.28
 5.26
 89.50
 0.57
70
 R. Huth
 9.45
 5.33
 80.00
 0.56
71
 Abdoulaye Faye
 8.72
 4.88
 97.50
 0.56
72
 N. Nosworthy
 5.23
 2.89
 26
 0.55
73
 L. Jacobsen
 4.77
 2.62
 34
 0.55
74
 J. Tomkins
 9.28
 5.00
 70.00
 0.54




1
 P. Robinson
 2.58
 3.89
 85.5
 1.51
2
 E. Van der Sar [Discount]
 8.14
 10.83
 65
 1.33
3
 A. Begovic
 3.02
 2.63
 21
 0.87
4
 T. Sørensen
 8.73
 7.47
 142
 0.86
5
 B. Foster
 8.96
 7.19
 57.5
 0.80
6
 M. Hahnemann
 9.87
 7.88
 63
 0.80
7
 C. Cudicini
 10.93
 8.71
 61
 0.80
8
 T. Kuszczak
 10.61
 7.88
 63
 0.74
9
 J. Hart
 10.95
 8.03
 160.5
 0.73
10
 B. Friedel
 11.47
 8.12
 170.5
 0.71
11
 S. Given
 8.25
 5.76
 121
 0.70
12
 H. Gomes
 12.05
 8.1
 121.5
 0.67
13
 B. Jensen
 6.72
 4.33
 91
 0.64
14
 M. Almunia
 8.71
 5.34
 85.5
 0.61
14
 E. Van der Sar
 17.91
 10.83
 65
 0.60
16
 P. Cech
 10.45
 6.2
 124
 0.59
17
 M. Schwarzer
 8.95
 5.25
 105
 0.59
18
 R. Green
 8.3
 4.24
 89
 0.51
19
 B. Myhill
 8.78
 4.47
 67
 0.51
20
 J. Jääskeläinen
 5.39
 2.71
 51.5
 0.50
21
 J. Reina
 9.22
 4.6
 96.5
 0.50
22
 W. Hennessey
 4.24
 1.54
 20
 0.36
23
 T. Howard
 10.16
 3.64
 76.5
 0.36
24
 M. Fülöp
 1
 0.31
 4
 0.31
25
 D. James
 4.9
 1.5
 18
 0.31
26
 C. Kirkland
 4.48
 1.08
 20.5
 0.24

No surprise that Drogba & Vermaelen lead their positions at their discount prices, but certainly a surprise that David Dunn & Paul Robinson lead the midfield & keeper sections respectively. Diamanti, Cohen & Baird also rank very highly.

Any surprises for you? What do you think we can read in to this?

Cheers,
AM

Posted by Assistant Manager at 8:29 am

63 comments:

Merv said...

Ngog at 3rd place! Damn!

11:22 am, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Greetings AM

Ive been reading your blog for some time now and can only say.. keep up the good work!!

interesting analysis.. little unfair for capt.Kirk u didnt get him a discout price calculation included, at 1.36 he could have been way better ranked

I was wondering do u know how many teams are there in fantasy football alltogether?
my current rank is preety bad since i missed the first round so Im sitting on 1666 points now, hopefully 666 turns out to be lucky number this week

Cheers from Croatia
Mrljo

11:37 am, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Yeah, some surprises in there, for sure..
The only problem with this sort of analysis is, a player with a value of 6 and ratio of 1 would get 1 point on the week in which I have him (or worse, doesn't play at all) and 11/12 points on the week that I don't.. :P
But great work, AM, nonetheless :)

-firus-

12:15 pm, January 19, 2010  
Assistant Manager said...

Mrljo - Thanks for comments. Yeah Kirkland is one of those who I could't really remember the discount on so he's being harshly judged...others in a similar situation will be people like O'Hara/Billy/Fabregas, but as I said, these are the "top players" so if you have a player at a better discount than I've put on the list then you should be happy :)

Firus - Exactly the same for me mate :)

12:40 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

it sure is interesting! However this set shows what a player would score with A) a guaranteed start against B) an average opponent. Adding a "likeliness of playing" ratio (i.e. matches played/total matches or big fat 0 due to injury/absence) and an standard deviation (i.e. Dindane with one game @40+!!) things would be different!
Interested in your opinion guys!

cheers bigwest

12:44 pm, January 19, 2010  
Assistant Manager said...

Bigwest - I agree there are loads of variables that I've not included in my analysis that would change things for sure, but at a basic level I think it throws up some interesting stats.

To be honest I just wanted to do a post that was a bit different to my usual, so hopefully people find it interesting to read & discuss!

Cheers
AM

12:51 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

No worries AM, I highly rate your reads!
Keep up the good work!

Cheers bigwest

12:57 pm, January 19, 2010  
greginho said...

it is kinda weird to see were the players that are on my team lie. the discount i have for ryan nelsen, when i got him in november for 5.10, makes him second for defenders with and index of 1.19. that gives me #1 and #2 for defense.

i have robinson whom i picked up last week, so i have the #1 goalie.

in the midfield i cesc, nzogbia, valencia and modric. so that gives me #11, #23, #54, and #56. with discounts that changes nzogbia to #2 with and index orf .88 and modric to #32 with an index of .69. so that is #2, #11, #32 and #56. i knew i wanted to get rid of valencia!

upfront i have diamanti, anelka and eduardo. they are ranked #2, #6 and #23. with the 7.40 that i paid for eduardo, he changes to #2 with an index of .92. so i have #2, #3 and #6.

this is kinda cool to realize. i think that had modric been playing regularly he would have been ranked even lower, because his price would have crept up. valencia is in form, so he is ranked so low because he had 8 games of 5 or lower out of his 21 games and more less than 10. it is hard to get the average to rise much with all of those low games. incidentally, i was thinking of changing valencia out for pienaar, who happens to be ranked one spot higher at #55!

1:09 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Good stuff A.M.

All of the double weeks sure have created havoc on "season keepers" . . . I thought I would have a lot more than Nelsen and Drogba on my team at this point from the beginning.

When analyzing the numbers and applying to a double week I suppose you just double the pts/unit which quite simply makes an overpriced player like Malouda (ranked #59 @ .53) into a better pick than an in form #1 D. Dunn playing one game.

The big question of course is long term.... and damn do I hope keeping Drogba pays off!!!!

Tuncay at 1.00 would rank him #1 at 2.17 :)


Tigers

1:38 pm, January 19, 2010  
Assistant Manager said...

Greginho - Looks like your team is in pretty good shape then mate! I also have Robinson now...I initially had Van Der Sar barndoored on Sunday but decided I didn't want to spend over £8m on a keeper it meant I needed 2 fillers to keep the outfield players I wanted. Dropping him to Robbo means I can afford the team I want, & home to Wigan he should return his value!

Tigers - How could I forget Tuncay @ 1.00! :)

AM

1:49 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

I have Donovan at discount. With average point 5,75 and divided with his original price which is 6,82 he will easily slot into 4th position on striker category replacing Tevez. His point per unit is 0,84.

Hopefully he will play against Black cat and should post god point ..

-pupus-

1:59 pm, January 19, 2010  
Assistant Manager said...

Hi Pupus - I decided on a minimum of 7 games for a player to make the list; many players can have a decent average after 2 games, lets see how he's doing in a few games time, but I'll agree he looks bright so far

2:20 pm, January 19, 2010  
greginho said...

AM
i picked up robinson last week because i needed to drop kirkland, i didn't see that shutout coming. i knew the next four weeks for robinson was easy, but i really didn't expect him to shutout, "inform" fulham. the extra points are nice and you should be able to relax for 1 month now for the goalie spot. incidentally, i picked up robinson for 5.15 and he went down that far. i am really happy about the extra 3 bucks to spend.

2:26 pm, January 19, 2010  
Mike B said...

Very nice work AM, nice to see my friend Alexander up there! Likewise with an old favourite of mine Diamanti!

I'm currently doing a bit of stat work myself as it happens. I'm working out from which position every team in the league, concedes the most goals.

Just basic stuff, but it might be nice to know from which position a team has a better chance of scoring from.

And yes, i'm bored haha.

2:28 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Another great post AM! Thanks alot for the effort you put into this blog!!! Wish you all the best!!!

bengoh91

2:30 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

I need some help here, guys. I am considering dropping either kranc or modric for week 20 as I want to fit another everton player in my squad.

Who do you think I should drop?

I am leaning towards dropping modric due to his inferior average points compared to kranc.

But yes, I'm afraid he will have a big week the moment I drop him.

bengoh91

2:35 pm, January 19, 2010  
Fidan said...

And I have Eagles @6.24, so his p/u is 1.12 or #1, AND add the fact that Eagles didn't start first 6 or 7 matches and you got a ave of 9.92 and p/u of 1,59...!!! I think I got a REAL bargain...!!!

Cheers...!!!

2:52 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

^ diaby @ 6.89(discounted price) fyi.

2:53 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Ola!!

will lamps price drop if he scores 12-15 next week??
what is going on with fabregas?? price is down 4mil!?

Guilermo

3:14 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

a quick mention for Nene of Monaco in the french fantasy lge. averaging 19.94 , i've got him for 10.24, and he was even cheaper the week before. a staggering 19.94/10.24=1.95 ratio.
better average than messi ( 18'ish ). almost leading every ranking- most goals 12, 2nd only to gignac in shots on target, 10 more cw's than anyone, and 20 more fw's than anyone. top weekly scorer this week for umpteenth time with a whopping 36.50. all praise to the fantasy god that is Nene ! S.P.

3:24 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

same thoughts as Bigwest .

if we take club games into consideration, it may make a clearer presentation. for example, drogba will be having only a worthiness of 1.33 as chelsea played 21 games, even thought he isn't going to be playing some games now(ANC & suspension). And 21 games was used as the price of 10.66 was from game 1 of chelsea. 1.33 isn't bad...lol, quite good, but it will 'drop' as the season progress till he is back to play. by then, big possibility , at feb his worthiness will drop to '1.215'. unless he can keep at a minimum of 13pts per game or that worthiness going to drop(note: 1.215 is GOOD, i'm not blind or biased). FYI, his last 5 eligible played games he had just 54(i.e. ave10.8pts). And with this season's cranky weather, pretty lots of DGs already and more to come. a versatile squad will be handy for the second half. (note:had been studying the Drogba conundrum quite sometime)
~Newbie

3:31 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

And looking at Verm, he played 21 (i.e. All games of Ars) thus, his worthiness of 1.41 is truely OUTstanding. just to add both side of the coin. great work btw.

~Newbie

3:36 pm, January 19, 2010  
Assistant Manager said...

I see exactly what you mean Newbie, and I agree as the season progresses & a player plays more games it becomes more & more difficult to keep that average up above a point per game.

3:44 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

^ glad you understand my point of view ( unlike my group managers)

oh, you miss out on Lucas (21GP@4.85 ave 3.90 = 0.804) potential rank 14-17 (quite close to Fab even after a massive -3.5week , lol) . oh , how can we miss out tweet-me-out-babel (10GP@4.77 ave 3.55 = 0.744)potential rank 22 (same as lennon , hahaha). well,well,well. what a surprise!
~Newbie

3:53 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

While I consider this type of analysis fairly often when considering my next week's matchups, I wish Yahoo would record the number of minutes a player has played on a weekly basis, so we may figure out how many points a player may get if he were to play the entire game. I do know that you can look at the player's profile to find the number of minutes out, but Yahoo do not have player's profiles for many guys. This kind of analysis will be very useful especially when evaluating bench players would fare if you knew they were going to start the next game.

-SK

4:18 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

This is like gold dust AM...cheers, merci, grazie, danke, gracias, go raibh maith agat!!!

Btw Yahoo used to include these ratios in the "research" section of the old style fantasy web pages...what the hell happened? These stats are always very useful for player decisions (although of course should not be used literally for absolute selection).

5:08 pm, January 19, 2010  
Mike B said...

Has anyone else noticed that Man U forward, Diouf has been added to the system now?

When did that happen!

5:09 pm, January 19, 2010  
STM said...

Mike B - Could be earlier today.

For those interested, G. Caldwell, S. Gohouri (both Wigan) and Michel (Birmingham) have been added as well.

5:22 pm, January 19, 2010  
Caleb said...

Hi AM, very nice work. Thank you very much for it!

One of my mate is having Nelson @ discount of 4.XX, which make him very great value. Also, the good thing for him is that he will never worried about the defense, which is always the hardest part in YFF, with Ver and Bale in his team.

BTW, Yahoo hasn't add Maxi of Liverpool in the system yet.

5:26 pm, January 19, 2010  
init said...

Very useful as a guide, AM, thanks for sorting.

Obviously it can only be used as a guide because like all models used for predicting stuff, they are based on our knowledge of what happened in the past...

The other thing which of course it can't factor is the match-ups, ie Dunn might be top but I wouldn't pick him away at Chelski...

5:27 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

@Caleb, yes, it is strange. i thought Maxi was already 'in the system' with their la liga fantasy. wonder why it took them ages to 'port' him over.

6:31 pm, January 19, 2010  
ToffeeDave said...

Good post AM but I see a major flaw in this analysis from the discussions taking place. The index only works if you held players the entire season for their price. If you simply buy Robbo now and say "i have the #1 keeper", well, you dont because you never got any points from him based on his price he could even deliver -10 points and be the worst keeper, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. The one regret I have all year, is dropping rodallega after first week. He should've been a season keeper for me.

6:40 pm, January 19, 2010  
greginho said...

caleb
your mate and i have similar tastes. vermaelen, nelsen and bale.

6:57 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

need some advice A.M. or anyone else. i have rafael at 6.50. rested at wk/end for g nev. :( typical that rafael plays tonite in lge cup semi. so what does that mean for Sat vs hull- will he rotate again ? . we all know giggs virtually always alternates- plays 1, then rests, then play. S.P.

7:38 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

looks like Diamanti Lee Chun yong and Robinson would be good picks this week

7:52 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Averages in YFF are a funny thing because point totals vary so widely from week to week. Someone like Agbonhlahor might spring for 30 pts in one game and then go cold for the next month. It's like the old saying about having one foot in ice water and the other in the fire.

I've been wracking my brains this season to find a better way of tracking a player's consistency (YFF not breaking down double week points by game doesn't help). Someone here a while back suggested throwing out the high and low scores -- that was a good idea. Or maybe some kind of wave theory to show when players are likely to get a high point score.

It's incredibly difficult to know when a player will get hot. But I've said it before, it's like the stock market -- drop the losers (Arshavin, Eduardo) and let the winners ride (Drogba, Diamanti).

8:04 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

@anon, i would recommend J Evans over rafael. those players that keep on rotating(as you had noted) are generally off my radar(unless i get words that they will definitely start). afaik, vidic could still be out , Rio will be out for some time. and when vidic is back, brown may also be a contender for RB!
~Newbie

8:04 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

One problem that could be easily rectfied would be to take the average price of the player as players like Hunt would have a much higher ratio with the aforementioned changes. This is a very good way of setting paradigms for your team choices
saitofall

8:07 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

@billthegrunt, you mean showing the median scores? yea, some one like dindane was living on some special games while others like barry was doing consistently unsurprising/outrageous scoring.

~Newbie

8:11 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

for keeper, look at CS; for strikers, look for goals; for defenders, CS as well. But what is the key indicator for Midfielders? goals? assists?

~Newbie

8:15 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

@Anon 7:38 PM, still want to get Rafael? not sure Fergie will want him in next game following his mistake (coonceding pen).

8:52 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Newbie - I think the key indicators depend not broadly on D/M/F but rather their more specific position that they play. By your method, all defenders as long as they play enough to keep the CS is the same. I suggest the following indicators:

GK - CS & Saves/GA ratio
Center Back - CS & Blocks+Last Man Tackles
FullBacks - CS & Crosses+Corners Won
CM/2nd Striker - Goals & Assists & SOT
Wings - SOT & Assists & Crosses+Corners Won
CF - Goals & SOT

I think the key thing to remember is that no one stat is good enough to adequately evaluate a player

- SK

10:02 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

points are IN!

~Newbie

10:04 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

some prices UPDATED!

(note: finally drogba's price is dropping)

~Newbie

10:14 pm, January 19, 2010  
greginho said...

my 122.5 points have moved me up 2939 spots. that is so cool, if i move up 2939 two more weeks in a row, i will be in first place. it sucks to be so far out. i can thank cesc, robinson, nelsen, vermaelen and

10:18 pm, January 19, 2010  
greginho said...

how awesome was the 2 goals scored by tevez against manure. ferguson has got to be having an ulcer. maybe he will retire now. why didn't tevez run the length of the pitch taunting the reds fans? he didn't even stomp on the back of rooney's head. since, adebayor did that, i assumed all disgruntled ex-players did that when they score against the hated team.

10:21 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

110 pts, yet with 8 man-games more to play for. Lovely especially my nearest rivals had way lesser man-games. =)

too bad about tevez. no man city's game. otherwise he'll be HOT. Tevez is class professional. love the way he display the "TALK TALK TALK' sign and the "can you hear me?' sign.
fot tevez, it will be 'Scoring MWG against Man U - Priceless' .
~Newbie

10:32 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

those looking for minutes played.. skip across to the official premier league game and on the players profile history gives you a list of all the games they have played with minutes played and basic stats (though granted not all the point scoring opportunities in the yahoo game)

Even if you dont play this game it is also useful for the injury/suspension indicators next to the players names.

10:35 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

just scanning the list it occurs to me that quite a few experienced/old players are towards the top of the list.

I hypothesise that the older players are better/more consistent at picking up the points??? Is it because they use their experience to pick up more phantom points or are the more focal points for the play of teams?

Just an interesting thought to ponder....

10:41 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

thanks sk. just read through your post.

~Newbie

11:12 pm, January 19, 2010  
Anonymous said...

So gutted this week. On 61 pts with only to play, but wait, it gets worse. I have Nasri and Agger, both of whom were injured in training the day before the match with no warning whatsoever. Basically I need Arsenal and Liverpool to win convincingly, both with clean sheets, goals by Rosicky and Eddie, a few saves by Almunia, and for Agger to somehow make a miraculous recovery. The reality is neither Eddie nor Rosicky are guaranteed to play, so I may just be shit out of luck. I may be the most unlucky player in the world. I had three Wigan players when their match was canceled. Have been screwed out of a number of goals and assists by piss poor Yahoo scoring but am somehow still in the top 1000. Unbelievable.

12:48 am, January 20, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Meant to say with just 6 to play, not including Agger.

12:49 am, January 20, 2010  
Anonymous said...

I haven't had to change my back line for weeks now...Verm @ 6.02, Alexander @ 5.58, and Nelsen @ 5.10. That ranks 1, 2, and 4 at those prices. Nelsen has been a points machine.

Hooterville Rutabagas

2:39 am, January 20, 2010  
ToffeeDave said...

After playing this game for a few years now, it seems that a consistent way to score high points, is to basically find cheap fillers who score big points, so you have the available capital to spend on premium players on great match-up weeks. For example, if you bought the steals Drogba, Verm, Boateng, Rjohnson, N'Zogbia, Rodallega you would have an amazing 1135 after 19 gameweeks using only roughly 40.00 in capital. Giving 60 units to spend on 1 striker, 1 defender, 2 middies, 1 keeper. So on a good week, you could add Rooney/Vpersie, Fabregas and/or Lampard/Gerrard and still have 20.00 to spend on a defender and keeper. I wish I had all those players from the start as my total points are only 17xx right now. Hindsight is 20/20

Another rule of thumb I'm developing is to stick with players until they score less than the initial price you bought them for after a few weeks of owning them and not selling right after 1 week. So if you buy at 5.00 and after 3 weeks he scores <15 you keep them or >15 you sell. I bought Boateng earlier this year at some rediculous price of 5 or something, then within 2 weeks of owning him he scored 40+ points. I held him for 3 weeks until I got scared by a -2 performance. If I stayed with him he would've got me another 50 points in 5 weeks averaging 10 per game. So I decided to not do that with Billy when I bought him for 4.71. He scored 28 points in 2 weeks of owning him so I stuck with him even through his red card. 8.45 is what he averaged over the 10 games he's played for me (had to take 2 0's for a red card though) so he is effectively a season keeper and I will only sell if he fails to score 5+ points for the rest of the year.

2:41 am, January 20, 2010  
greginho said...

8 weeks of hell might have just ended. i just realized that in AM group 2 i have the most points of all of the players. i do have 8 players left to play, so i might be able to keep that 1st place. this is important for me because i starting tanking in week 8 and have dropped from 1010 to 7785 in that time frame. every player i picked up would stop performing. i would hear everyone harp on a player and i would pass and the player would go off. i hope this means that the players i pick can keep performing.

2:42 am, January 20, 2010  
Anonymous said...

70.5 with seven players going tomm:
M.tay Arsh Bale Defoe Crouchie Eduardo Vermaelen, I had picked Ramsey and Nasri too bc they were at discounts it would've been nine...but at least having faith in Robinson kinda made up for them not playing!

3:17 am, January 20, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Paul Robinson that is, he scored 18 points...gosh he has been my best player lately, minus the -10 last week

3:19 am, January 20, 2010  
Anonymous said...

Any chance that Belletti starts for Chelsea next match?

SF

8:07 am, January 20, 2010  
bean said...

i'm thinking of:

E.VdS
Ivano,Verm,Bale
Modric,Fletch(er),Aqui,Pienaar
Rooney,Anelka,Lando

but that's dropping Fab discount. Have too many discounts,have to drop one, maybe drop VdS(should have done like AM and picked up PRoblem on the BD) and keep Fab...

@SF - i would think Beletti will start. Mikel away, Essien away and injured. his price is tempting, but will he just be the next Mikel?

9:44 am, January 20, 2010  
Anonymous said...

I got 70.5 with 11 players potentially to play tonight. (Ngog sure on the bench?)

Anyways my free fallin in the overall standings continues. I havent climbed in the total standings for 3-4 straight weeks. Oh well.. I just have to keep my chin up and hope for things to turn around :)

When are they gonna add Maxi Rodriguez to the Liverpool lineup?


////Andy

10:20 am, January 20, 2010  
mrljo said...

fabs price went up again! to 22.97, really don't know why was he so cheap on BD when he scored 20something last game.. good thing i got him for 17.5 :))

10:21 am, January 20, 2010  
chris m said...

Most of this is intelligent and interesting. Once again, this is THE place to hang for people who try to approach YFF with some thinking.

That said, I am trying to wrap my feeble mind how I managed to come in #2 in YFF group two for the 1st half of this week with 115 pts and still go down 334 places in the YFF overall standings sinking to 2913. A lot of people outside our closed circle must have had great weeks.

good luck to all today. Go Spurs

11:55 am, January 20, 2010  
Mandara said...

here my team..please rate..

cech
ivanovic bale evans
collison s.reid aquilani cohen
rooney anelka kalinic

i kinda love this one..what do u guys think?

10:48 am, January 21, 2010  

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