Week 14 - Player Picks

You only need to look at the Premier League table to see what a crazy season we have on our hands. The leaders Chelsea have lost almost a quarter of their matches, 3 in 13, Arsenal have also lost 3, yet they're ahead of an undefeated Man Utd side & Mancini is under pressure despite City finding themselves in the top 4.

After 13 games just 9 points separate the 15 teams between the Champions League places & the relegation zone. At the same stage last season the gap was 14 and nine teams had passed the 20 point mark already. The times they are a'changin...it seems everyone is beating everyone else at the moment,  the so-called "smaller" teams appear less scared of losing this season and it's producing more upsets.

The congestion this is causing means two wins and you're chasing Europe, two defeats and you're in a relegation fight...it's exciting, unpredictable & I'm loving it!

My only problems with it are
1. The football media are pissing me off (even more than usual) with their ultra-reactionary reporting. Two weeks ago Chelsea were running away with it, now they're in complete crisis. Next weekend it'll be someone else.
2. Spurs keep losing games they should win.
3. My accumulator bets keep losing me money.

It also makes Fantasy Football slightly more difficult to predict, but as usual I'll start my look at the week with analysis of the the upcoming fixtures in the hope of providing some useful guidance on the teams to focus on.

Stand-Outs
MANCHESTER UNITED v Wigan
LIVERPOOL v West Ham

Manchester United aren't playing that well but surely they'll have too much for Wigan at Old Trafford, and despite the fact Liverpool are actually a pretty awful side this season, they are certainly better than rock bottom West Ham, so I can see nothing but an Anfield win to cheer up the Scousers.

Should Win
CHELSEA @ Birmingham
ARSENAL v Spurs
MANCHESTER CITY @ Fuham
BOLTON v Newcastle
WEST BROM v Stoke
BLACKPOOL v Wolves

As I mentioned, the reaction to a couple of Chelsea defeats has been ridiculous - they are still strong, they are still top and they will still win the league in my opinion. Birmingham don't lose many at home but I expect Chelsea to cope far better with the loss of both Terry & Alex than they did vs Sunderland & they'll have enough in attack to win the match, although I don't expect it to be a walkover.

Arsenal always beat Spurs at Highbury/The Emirates, I reckon Man City will bounce back at Fulham  and in-form Bolton should beat Newcastle at home. West Brom have had a few defeats of late but are a different team in front of their own fans (plus Stoke don't travel well) and Blackpool face a struggling Wolves side in the midst of a defensive injury crisis, so for me it's another home win.

Draws
Sunderland v Everton
Blackburn v Aston Villa

Sunderland Everton should be a good close game & I'm expecting a high scoring draw while Blackburn are tough to break down & Villa are missing a lot of players, can see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

With that in mind, we move on to the players...

KEEPERS
Reina
Carson
Jaaskalainen
Kingston (Gilks is still out)
Fabianski
Given (could replace Hart due to injury)

DEFENDERS
Bale (only at big discount)
Kolarov (should continue after impressing last weekend)
Boateng
Bosingwa (pretty much guarenteed a start with Alex & Terry out)
Zhirkov (Essien still suspended, Lampard still injured)
Squillaci
Koscielny (back from suspension)
M.Kelly (could replace Skrtel due to injury)
Konchesky
Coleman
Onuoha
Steinsson (back from suspension)
P.Jones
Ibanez/Jara (Jara's return from suspension could affect Ibanez)
O'Shea/Brown/Rafael (depends on starting news for right-back spot)

MIDFIELDERS
Nani
Fabregas (getting back to his best in time for Spurs, typical)
Gerrard (subbed for England with hamstring injury, could be doubtful)
Brunt
Holden
Adam (picked up injury for Scotland, one to watch)
Van Der Vaart
Malouda
Nasri
Silva
Milijas (won't stop shooting)
Kuyt (hunch he could do well)
Henderson
Guthrie (on set pieces in Barton's absence)
Park (watch for team news, could be a bench risk)
Meireles
Hoilett (playing on the wing for Blackburn, very cheap)
Scholes (back from suspension)

STRIKERS
Gyan (on-fire, although not literally)
Torres (news suggests he'll recover from his ankle injury)
Odemwingie
Elmander
Berbatov (should continue despite disappointing at Villa)
Chamakh 
Tevez (if he's not dead-to-you after last week!)
Drogba (losing patience...)
Hernandez/Macheda (Macheda could be given a chance)
K.Davies
Carroll (keep an eye on injury news)
Varney
Van Persie (Would Wenger risk unleashing him in the derby?)

That's it for another week of player picks. There are a number of things to be clarified by team/injury news (plus any fall-out from tonight's international matches) before the Week 14 deadline so I'll be back with a full update post on Friday.

Please vote in the Poll: http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/508809

My current team: Carson, Coleman, Kolarov, Bale, Adam, Brunt, Van Der Vaart, Nani, Gerrard, Gyan, Van Persie

This will not be the finished product...RvP is very unlikely to stay unless I get confirmation he'll start, but I've accepted I need at least one Arsenal player in there somewhere (YUK!). Drogba, Elmander, Odemwingie, Torres, Holden, Kuyt, Malouda, Fabregas, Zhirkov, Kelly, Squillaci & Reina are all still in my thoughts and I'll be making plenty of changes before the deadline.

I'll leave it there! Please let me know how your team is shaping up...any hunches this week? Who do you think will flop? Any players you'd add to the lists above?

Cheers,
AM