Week 19 - Player Picks

PLEASE NOTE: This post is written as if the postponement rule as we know it (i.e. you score zero for a player if his game called off & you do not get the points when the game is rescheduled) is still in place. If the Fantasist confirms the rule change as detailed in this post (i.e. you get the points when the games are rescheduled) then it will change things significantly as you wouldn't necessarily need to drop/ignore players at risk of postponements, but I can't work with "ifs and buts", so we go with what we know. Cheers!

What a nightmare Week 18 turned out to be! The information we had on Saturday morning before the deadline told us that Birmingham v Newcastle, Liverpool v Fulham & Wigan v Aston Villa were were all postponed, but at that point in time all other fixtures were on. In the dying minutes, we chopped, we changed, we dropped discounts & we got as many players in from the other 7 games as possible.

Then at 12:03pm Arsenal v Stoke was called off & throughout the afternoon we were provided with more bad news as all three of Sunday's fixtures were postponed (all justifiable with the exception of Chelsea v Manchester United, which would've been easily playable given the conditions in London on Sunday). This left three matches, Sunderland v Bolton, Blackburn v West Ham & Man City v Everton, and ensured a very very low scoring week.

Some people got lucky; the Blog Team being a prime example. We didn't have time to change it due to an internet disaster for myself & Hans, but our existing Week 17 team picked up 77.5 points to finished 15th in the Overall Weekly Standings. Some people got smart & filled their team with Sunderland & Bolton players as it was the one game100% certain to go ahead. Some people had nightmares & scored zero - a very difficult outcome to accept. It's a shame this happened but we all know postponements are part & parcel of the game & just need to deal with them as best we can!

The news on this weekend is that things are set to ease up a bit but it's still very cold & icy here in the UK. Blackpool v Liverpool is still a big risk due to the lack of under-soil heating so for that reason I will be completely ignoring the game from my picks this week. It's simply not worth considering players from a fixture when the club say they will leave it as "late as possible"to make a decision. 

As for the remaining nine fixtures, they all have a very good chance of taking place, so I have taken them all in to consideration. I will do my best to produce an team/injury/weather update post on Christmas Eve (Friday) & will try to get online very briefly on Xmas Day (Saturday) & Boxing Day (Sunday) morning to provide as much of the available information as possible. 

Please remember, the Week 19 Deadline this week is on SUNDAY 26th DECEMBER at 12:00 noon UK Time.

Fixtures...

Tips To Win
MAN UNITED v Sunderland
BOLTON v West Brom
EVERTON v Birmingham
MAN CITY @ Newcastle
FULHAM v West Ham
SPURS @ Aston Villa

No real stand-out fixtures, but I look at the six matches above and think "they should win that one".

We start at Old Trafford. Sunderland are doing well in 6th, but their only away win was the one-off shock that started the rot for Chelsea, so with Nani flying & Rooney threatening to be good again it has to be 3 points for Fergie's boys. I also think Bolton will be too strong for West Brom at the Reebok, as Holden & Co look to improve their recent form of just 4 points from a possible 12.

Everton have been difficult to predict this season but they will be lifted by their win at Man City on Monday & Birmingham are a team really struggling - especially away from home - so I think the Toffees will edge it. I also think Man City will bounce back & beat Newcastle at St James Park. If you actually watched the game the other night City battered Everton and it could easily have been 5-2 rather than 1-2.

Fulham v West Ham is a huge game; 17th vs 20th, 3 points between them. It sounds like Dembele will be back & a striker who can actually score goals will make a big difference to Mark Hughes' team, so I think it'll be the game that sees Fulham back to winning ways. Spurs travel to Villa Park in the late Sunday game & I think (hope?) VDV's return combined with Spurs' pace & Villa's ongoing injury problems will lead to an away win.

Close Games/Draws
Arsenal v Chelsea
Blackburn v Stoke
Wolves v Wigan
Blackpool v Liverpool

Arsenal v Chelsea is a day later than all other games, Monday evening, and by then both teams could be 5 or 6 points behind Manchester United. I think the pressure will see quite a nervy game, and although it could go either way I think it'll end in a score draw.

Blackburn v Stoke & Wolves v Wigan are both likely to end in low scoring draws, with a slight advantage to the home side if anything, and although I won't be considering Blackpool v Liverpool players, I would expect a draw if the game goes ahead.

Players...

KEEPERS
Hart (below £10m for first time in ages, could be a solid long-term pick)
Jaaskalainen (makes saves & winnable home game)
Robinson (same as Jussi)
Howard (played well at City & appears to have his confidence back)
Hennessey (slightly riskier than the above keepers but a cheap option)

DEFENDERS
Bale
Baines
Kolarov
Coleman
Kompany
Salcido
P Robinson
Jara
Ricketts
Koscielny/Squillaci
Ferreira
Salgado
Wolves Defenders (awaiting team/injury news to specify)

MIDFIELDERS
Nani
Cahill
Silva
Pedersen
Van Der Vaart
Holden
Arteta
Barton
Brunt
Dempsey
Nasri
Lampard
Milijas/Hunt
S Davies
Pennant

STRIKERS
Rooney
Elmander
Saha
Balotelli
Dembele
Carroll
Davies
Defoe
Van Persie
Ebanks-Blake
Benjani

That's it for another week! I'll try to get some player analysis done throughout the day. but I will not get the chance to do a poll this week so I'll head in to the chatroom tomorrow, get some ideas from people & pick the blog team using that info.

My team currently looks like this...

Robinson, Jara, Bale, Kolarov, Van Der Vaart, Brunt, Pedersen, Cahill, Balotelli, Elmander, Rooney

This team leaves me £2.7m left in the bank and lots of work to do. I need to find a way to get Nani in; I currently can't see a way to do it unless I drop Rooney but I have a huge hunch Rooney will score big against an injury ravaged Sunderland defence, so don't want to make that switch. I could switch Balotelli to Benjani to free up a bit extra, I'd also like to upgrade Jara if I can & I'm still not certain on Elmander or Brunt, but I'll keep Robbo, Bale, Kolarov, VDV, Pedersen & Cahill.

As I mentioned earlier, I'll be back on Christmas Eve/Day to update you with all the important weather, team & injury news.

Merry Christmas to all blog readers, thanks for all your support! How's your Christmas Weekend team shaping up? :)

Cheers,
AM

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