Week 16 - Player Picks

Please note this edition ignores the current UK weather conditions. We will deal with any potential postponements closer to the deadline, but for now we have no accurate information on the risk to any particular fixture so I have written my player picks for a perceived full schedule.

First off this week, I was really pleased with the fantastic response to last night's post regarding "Goalkeepers - My Story So Far", with over 70 comments in just 12 hours helping us build an extremely interesting picture of methods for success. Thanks to everyone who was bored enough last night to get involved!

It (unsurprisingly) shows that I have one of the very worst records out of all blog readers, with only a couple of lower totals appearing in the replies. I was surprised however, to see Arsenal_Bergkamp (overall leader) has scored only marginally better than I have with his keepers...imagine how far ahead he'd be now with a bit more luck!?

Anyway, it appears pretty much everyone scoring highly in this department over the season settled on a reasonably solid keeper quite early on (Hart/Foster being most popular, but the key being a GK who generally makes a lot of saves, even in defeat) and stuck with him, no matter the fixture. It's something I have decided to do and see how it works out (it can't get any worse, can it?), so will be looking to settle on one over the next 2 weeks. It's likely to be Fabianski, Robbo or Jussi, apologies if you have any of them :)

Moving swiftly on to Week 16 (which is ROUND 4 of The Blog Cup!) and I'm determined to break 100 for only the 7th time this season after a number of frustrating "nearly" weeks in the 90s. One of the key points I (and many other managers) have to decide on is what to do about Van Der Vaart if you hold him at 6ish. I find it very odd that we've had absolutely no news from Tottenham about the extent of his hamstring injury, only that he was due to have scan on Monday.

Is no news a good or bad thing? Perhaps it's not as bad as first feared? Perhaps it's worse!? I'm not sure, but we should know more in the next 48 hours...anything more than two weeks out will mean I drop him (3-4 weeks out at this time of year means missing 5-6 games). It will be frustrating to lose the discount, but he would probably drop to 11ish as people sell him, quite an affordable price for set piece + penalty taker.

Right, I'm waffling - let's take a look at the Week 16 Fixtures...

Stand Outs
ARSENAL v Fulham
CHELSEA v Everton

Two big home wins in my opinion - Fulham are struggling to score goals, can't stop drawing/losing games and are in a relegation fight right now, so if Arsenal click in to gear (as they did against Villa) then I could see a 3 or 4 goal victory. Everton are just a point ahead of Fulham, without a win in five games and will also be without the influential Arteta through suspension. I get that feeling that Chelsea will hammer someone soon, and it could be this weekend.

Should Win
SUNDERLAND v West Ham
MAN UTD @ Blackpool
MAN CITY v Bolton
LIVERPOOL v Aston Villa
BLACKBURN v Wolves

Sunderland were one of the "stand outs" originally, but West Ham will be lifted by two great wins over Wigan & Man Utd respectively, so while I still see a win for the home side it may not be as simple as first assumed. Speaking of Man Utd, they should have too much for Blackpool, but you just don't know what Holloway's men may be capable of, so again it won't be a walkover.

Bolton have been excellent at home but showed signs of a slight drop against Blackpool, and a trip to Manchester City will be tough, so I reckon it'll be a first defeat for Coyle since October. Liverpool impressed at White Hart Lane and I'm fully expecting them to beat injury stricken Aston Villa, and Blackburn rested some of their better players at Old Trafford and are very decent at Ewood Park, so vs Wolves it's another home win for me.

Close/Draw
Birmingham v Tottenham
West Brom v Newcastle
Wigan v Stoke

Three games that could go either way, but I can see all draws here. I'm actually tempted to chuck a fiver on the three-draw treble at 44/1. I can't see any of them being particularly high scoring matches.

Now on to the players, and there are loads and loads of viable options this week...

KEEPERS
Fabianski
Gordon
Robinson

I've kept it down to just three keepers this week, and feel they represent the best value given the fixtures if you're buying at full price. Heading the list is Lukasz Fabianski, who has been pretty solid for Arsenal since he ousted Almunia (one mistake when he was out-jumped by Andy Carroll aside) and as mention Fulham are struggling, so he has a real chance of a clean sheet this weekend.

Craig Gordon has returned from injury in really good form, and although Sunderland will be missing their usual centre backs I still can't see West Ham causing an upset, so he's another who makes saves & has a clean sheer opportunity. Finally, Paul Robinson is now below £4m after his -19 in the 7-1 defeat at Old Trafford and again as I stated earlier, Blackburn are a different proposition at home. Wolves also struggle to score goals, especially away, so he's definitely the value keeper pick of Week 16.

If you want to spend on Cech then do, and if you hold Foster, Hart or Jussi on a long term discount then obviously stick with them, but I would avoid Scott Carson. Newcastle are far more dangerous in an attacking sense than Wolves, so if you are looking to spend as little as possible then I would go for Robbo instead. But remember, I've been wrong before..

DEFENDERS
Bale
Kolarov
Koscielny/Squillaci* (*could be out with a knee problem)
Bosingwa/Zhirkov* (*could be back)
Rafael
P.Jones
Bardsley
Tamas
Skrtel
Alcaraz
Carr
Mensah
Konchesky
Jara
Mancienne
S.Caldwell

We're assuming VDV is out, so Bale becomes all that more valuable when on set pieces, and Kolarov (K-Rov?) is fast becoming a favourite, an attacking full back who loves to get forward, shoot, takes corners, with the added bonus possibility of a clean sheet. Both Koscielny & Squillaci are fantastic value (under £6m) at home to Fulham (although look out news for on Squil's knee injury), Bosingwa is also really tempting for Chelsea and we'll await news from Ancelotti on Zhirkov - he could be back & is still priced below £7m.

Rafael seems to have cemented his position as Man Utd's right back and loves to fly down the wing, Blackburn's Phil Jones has been solid all season and has a clean sheet chance, while Phil Bardsley continues to scores really well for Sunderland. West Brom's Tamas is extremely cheap if you fancy a clean sheet at the Hawthorns, Skrtel will have to be the rock for Liverpool with Carragher out, while Alcaraz is back from suspension for Wigan and has a very decent average this season.

Steve Carr is the most affordable Birmingham defender if you want to cover their possible clean sheet, John Mensah is a cheaper alternative to Bardsley to cover Sunderland,  Paul Konchesky has dropped below £7m after a bit of a horror show at Spurs and Jara is a slightly (very slightly) cheaper West Brom defender if you just don't like the look of Tamas. If you're looking for mega budget defenders then Mancienne & Stephen Caldwell are probably the best bet.

MIDFIELDERS
Nani
Nasri
Brunt
Arshavin
Malouda
Meireles
Pedersen
Wilshire
Rosicky
Silva
N'Zogbia
Larsson
Etherington
Adam
Barton
Kuyt
Henderson
Pennant
Hoilett

Nani has been consistent all season and is the top points scorer so far, so you really need to have him your team, and I assume most blog readers do (although I'm surprised to see only 25% of all teams have him). Nasri often steps up in Cesc's absence and has a great fixture, Brunt is back to fitness as we saw with his superb free-kick vs Everton & Arshavin will be on a high after a great performance in Week 15.

Malouda is showing signs of getting back to his early season form and I fancy him to grab a goal, Meireles is taking kicks and really impressing in Gerrard's absence, MGP is having his best season in years, Wilshire was surprisingly on corner duty ahead of Nasri last week, while Rosicky had a very good game slotting in just behind Chamakh, was rested in the League Cup so should play & costs just a shade of £6m - bargain alert!

David Silva is maybe a touch lucky to find himself in the lists each week because he rarely actually does that much, but it's the fact he's always affordable and has a chance of a big week because of his quality that means he makes it. N'Zogbia will be behind all Wigan's good work with Hugo missing, Larsson is having a fine season & is now on penalty duty too and Etherington is hitting some great form, although admittedly he's a bit pricey.

I'm still on the Adam Bandwagon because he's still outproducing his cost of 5.4 most weeks, and I just know he'll bang in a free kick or penalty as soon as I drop him, Barton returns from suspension, is around £9m and will be straight back on set piece duty for Newcastle, Kuyt is on pens for Liverpool & may be pushed upfront to replace N'Gog with Joe Cole returning. Henderson has a great fixture, Pennant will get his share of set pieces & Hoilett is a bargain filler option.

STRIKERS
Chamakh
Tevez
Bent/Wellbeck/Gyan (*waiting for team news on which 2 start)
Drogba
Rooney
Berbatov (pre-update price, obviously)
Balotelli
Kalou
Odemwingie
Torres
Carroll
K.Jones
Obinna
Di Santo

Chamakh will retain his place at the top of Arsenal's attack after a hugely impressive performance at Villa last Saturday, and even if you missed the barndoor he's still a very affordable option, while Tevez was a disaster last weekend with -4.5, but if he follows his pattern of good week/bad week he's due a cracker! Bent & Wellbeck both scored again last weekend so they're the most likely to continue, but we await team news incase Gyan has forced himself in to Bruce's plans.

As mentioned earlier, one day soon Chelsea are going to batter someone, and on that day it is very likely that Didier Drogba will score a hat-trick, 35 points+, and very few people will have him in their team. Essien is their heartbeat & him returning will make a big difference - if you can find £21m from somewhere then Drogs could make your week. I'm also expecting an open game and lots of goals at Blackpool v Man Utd, so Rooney or (a pre-update) Berbatov both come in to play.

Balotelli scored a brace in Europe last night and could be the perfect VDV replacement (albeit in a different position) seeing as he's priced below £6m. He was subbed with an injury last night, but Mancini said it was "only a little knock" so I'm sure he'll be fine. Kalou is a cheaper Chelsea option if you can't afford Malouda or Drogba, Odemwingie says he feels back to full match sharpness now so he's an option, and Torres faces depleted Aston Villa on a run of defeats.

I have a real hunch that Andy Carroll will do well at West Brom, which is one of the main reasons I'm not recommending Scott Carson - Barton's return will add to the threat as he's supplied assists for 4 of Carroll's league goals this season. Kenwyne Jones will get plenty of goalscoring opportunities at Wigan, Obinna is finally starting to live up to his potential (a goal and 5 assists in his last 2 games) & Di Santo will lead the line for Wigan at a budget price.

That's it for another week!

My team currently looks like this:

Robinson, Koscielny, Kolarov, Bale, Adam, Nasri, Brunt, Nani, Balotelli, Chamakh, Rooney

It's unsaved...Fabianski, VDV & Elmander are still held at discount, and while it's unlikely to be the finished product I actually quite like it. Admittedly I'm likely to have to let Rooney go as I will need funds and space for a Chelsea representatives (Bosingwa, Malouda & Kalou are possibilities) and may try to bring in one of the Sunderland strikers.

As always, please vote in the poll:
http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/510195

I'll be back on Friday to update you with all the important weather, team & injury news, plus I'll update you on how my team is looking.

How's your own team shaping up? Any hunches this week? Are you in the 4th Round of The Blog Cup?

Cheers,
AM

p.s. We've passed 1000 Facebook members, amazing! Please join us as we look to pass 1100 before the end of the year! :)