Week 7 - Player Picks

Week 6 turned out to be completely unpredictable - the huge number of shock results meant a lot of low weekly totals and I know everyone will be keen to bounce back by breaking 100, but having looked at the fixtures for Week 7 it ain't gonna be easy.

When I analyse the fixtures each week I look at form, the premier league table, make my predictions for each game based on this data (and my gut feeling) and separate the stand-out fixtures (predicted easy wins) from those I think could go either way - nice and simple.

However, when analysing the fixtures forthcoming weekend I found almost every game incredibly difficult to predict with many matches likely to be close battles and probably low-scoring ones at that. It makes it slightly trickier to recommend players when you're not sure which teams are set for wins/clean sheets etc and I certainly won't be putting an accumulator on this weekend!

The only real stand-out fixture is Manchester City vs Newcastle, with City on a high after their fantastic win over Chelsea. Saying that, Newcastle have been far from useless this season with great victories at Everton and the thumping of Aston Villa, so it won't be easy for them. Liverpool v Blackpool would've been a banker home win when the fixtures were released back in the summer, but the Reds are really struggling at the moment and Blackpool have surprised us all. I still think Hodgson's men will have too much for Holloway's, but as I said earlier I'm certainly not putting money on it.

The biggest game of the weekend is Chelsea v Arsenal, 1st vs 3rd, with both sides looking to bounce back from defeats. Despite Chelsea's excellent record vs the Gunners it certainly isn't going to be a walk-over, but I do wonder how an Arsenal defence who can concede 3 goals vs West Brom are going to cope with attacking trio of Drogba/Malouda/Anelka as well as Essien/Terry/Ivanovic/Alex at set pieces. I think it'll be a narrow home win.

Manchester United have been consistent away from home - draw at Fulham, draw at Everton, draw at Bolton. Sunderland outplayed Liverpool last weekend and Steve Bruce will be relishing the chance to do battle with his old boss so I could quite easily see that one being another draw for Sir Alex. Tottenham and Aston Villa have both had inconsistent starts to the season and I can't tip Spurs after a Champions League game so I'll have to say draw too.

Stoke vs Blackburn will be scrappy & could go either way, Wigan v Wolves will be tight, as will West Brom v Bolton with both sides playing well. West Ham will be on a high after their first win last weekend and they face a Fulham side with no strikers, but Mark Hughes will have Fulham set up to combat that and it's yet another game which I can see ending all square. To round things off, Birmingham v Everton...draw.

See what I mean? Loads of tight games really do make it difficult, but we've all got to pick a team so I've compiled my player recommendations below...

KEEPERS
Hart
Reina
Foster
Carson
Green

There's quite a nice variety when it comes to goalkeepers this week. Joe Hart is too expensive at his current price of almost 12 but I know many of you have kept the faith for a number of weeks so probably hold him at around 8. You're very lucky if you do, because Newcastle at home gives him another great chance of a clean sheet.

Pepe Reina hit negative points for the 3rd time this season vs Sunderland but is tempting priced under 9 with a home game vs Blackpool and Ben Foster has been in good form all season. Birmingham have not lost at home for 12-months so I'm probably going to be hanging on to him for the third week in a row.

Two much maligned (former?) England keepers complete the list - Scott Carson has been solid for West Brom and I can't see Bolton going goal-crazy, while Rob Green returned to form vs Spurs and faces a Fulham side who don't actually have any strikers available. It's slightly risky, but he was under £5m on the barndoor so perhaps you'll feel it's worth it.

DEFENDERS
Bale
Kompany
Salcido
O'Shea
Carr
Jara
Skrtel
Jacobson
P.Jones
Collins
Coleman
Gohouri
Berra
Boateng

Opinions are understandably split on Bale, but he has a home game and should be back on the left wing so I'm set to give him another week. Consecutive sub-10 point weeks will give me something to think about and if there's a suggestion he'll be shifted to left back permanently to accommodate Modric and VDV then it's definitely time to drop him. We'll see how this one pans-out.

Kompany continues to put up fantastic points for City and attacking fullback Salcido has made an exciting start to his career in England. If I am going to get rid of Bale in the near future then I could be looking at a back 3 of Salcido, Bosingwa, Boateng/Kolorov once the latter three return from injury, and I'd advise you to do something similar when the time comes ;). O'Shea is the token Man United defender and Ferreira would be Chelsea's, but it appears Ivanovic is back in favour.

Carr, Jara and Skrtel are all around 7 and have winnable home games/clean sheet chances for Birmingham, West Brom & Liverpool respectively, with Jacobson the bargain of the week as a guaranteed starter at home for West Ham at under £5m. Blackburn's Phil Jones keeps putting up the points in midfield, Danny Collins is the cheapest Stoke defender (assuming Faye returns for Wilkinson) and Seamus Coleman is likely to continue as Everton's right-back ahead of Tony Hibbert.

I could easily see Wigan v Wolves being 0-0 so if you're desperately scrambling around for cheap defenders you could do a lot worse than taking either Gohouri or Berra in that fixtures. Both cost around £6m and not many other people will pick them up, so they could also help if you're looking to do something a bit different. We'll keep an eye on Boateng, but I'm not sure he'll start just yet and even less sure he'd get more than 70 minutes if he did get the nod.

MIDFIELDERS
Malouda
Gerrard
Van Der Vaart
Nani
N'Zogbia
Kuyt
Adam
Silva/Johnson
Etherington/Pennant
Brunt
Barton
Yaya
Holden
J Cole/Mereiles
Scholes
Etuhu

Very familiar looking midfield picks so I won't go in to too much detail about the usual suspects. Sagna was skinned alive by Jerome Thomas so what could Malouda do to him? Gerrard vs Blackpool is obviously a great pick while Van Der Vaart is scoring points for fun and still only costs £9m...if you haven't grabbed him yet do it now!

Nani is in fantastic form and will have extra pressure on him with no Rooney, Valencia or Giggs...expect all free kicks, corners and penalties to come his way for the next few weeks. N'Zogbia is back in the Wigan team and taking everything for them, Nasri the same for Arsenal with Fabregas unlikely to make it (surely they won't make the mistake of rushing him back again?).

Kuyt is back and good value at £11m, I'm still recommending Charlie Adam seeing as he can score 6.5 points despite scoring an own goal in a Blackpool defeat, and either David Silva or Adam Johnson have to be tempting options depending on which one is set to start vs Newcastle.

Etherington at home to Blackburn is more attractive if Pennant is still out BUT if Pennant is back then he'd actually be my preference due to cost. Brunt and Barton are two more set piece takers, but I'll admit Barton is not as attractive since I realised Nolan takes penalties.

Yaya is another City middie at a more affordable price and Holden is Mr Consistent for Bolton putting up above his value almost every week. I'm putting Joe Cole & Meireles in because of their price + fixture, but neither has done anything to suggest they'll score much more than their value (Cole averages zero!) so it would be a gamble. Scholes & Etuhu are fillers who could go +10 or -3.

STRIKERS
Drogba
Tevez
Berbatov
Odemwingie
Torres
K Jones
Obinna
Bent
Chamakh
Rodallega

I toyed with the idea of dropping Drogba for Tevez this week - I feel both are set for really good weeks but liked the idea of saving £3m+. Then I thought about it some more, looked at the averages, remembered what Didier has done to Arsenal in the past and changed my mind. I still think Tevez is set for a bumper score vs Newcastle but at the moment I'm sticking to my guns.

Berbatov should do well at Sunderland as the focal point of all United attacks (no Rooney), and my tip of the week (one many of you had already decided yourselves) is Odemwingie. I'd had my eye on him for a few weeks without being able to fit him in but he's getting better each time I see him and a home game vs Bolton is enticing. I also think Torres will get back amongst the goals vs Blackpool, but I'm not certain enough to spend £16m+ on the hunch!

Kenwyne Jones has quickly settled in at Stoke, which is little surprise given how he suits their style of play perfectly - definite chance of a goal vs Blackburn. Obinna has been really exciting for West Ham so far, shooting from everywhere and is surely ready to open his account soon. Darren Bent keeps scoring against the big boys and will be looking to add Manchester United to his season that already included goals vs Arsenal & Liverpool.

A lot of people will be jumping off the Chamakh bandwagon as they can drop him for Chelsea and bring him back in for only a slight loss afterwards, but he showed enough class last night to suggest his form is improving and the blues will need to keep an eye on for him this Sunday. Finally, Rodallega at home to Wolves - have you got the guts?

That completes my Week 7 Player Picks! As always a lot can change between now and the deadline - injury fall-out from European games, unexpected team news etc, so keep checking back for updates.

Please remember to vote in the weekly poll to help us picks the Blog Team...Bale, Malouda & Drogba are all included again!

http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/502684/

I'll admit I'm finding it difficult to pick a team at the moment and this is mainly down to me missing a couple of great picks on the barndoor. I knew exactly who I wanted to bring in but unfortunately can't get close to them at their current values, so I'm currently on...

Foster, Jacobson, Salcido, Bale, Adam, Barton, Van Der Vaart, Malouda, Odemwingie, Obinna, Drogba

Bale, Drogba, Malouda, Adam, VDV, Barton & Salcido are all held at decent discounts and I believe it's still a bit too early in the season to start dumping anyone for having one poor week. However, it's a something I've been looking in to.

Adam and Barton are set-piece takers averaging over 9 points at a cost of under £5.5m...I can't see where else I can currently get that return? Losing Bale or Drogba (or both) would give me so much more room to manoeuvre, but they are proven point scorers. Could I use the extra funds more effectively? Possibly Bale's if Van Der Vaart is stealing his stuff (do I really need/want 2 Spurs players every week?), but losing Drogba @20 still feels like a big risk to me (I scare easy).

I think I may keep things pretty much as they are for Week 7. Obinna isn't a certainty and I'll possibly drop Barton just to give me a City or Liverpool player, but that could be it. After this weekend we have a break for international fixtures so I'll have plenty of time to reflect on the first seven weeks of the season and think about strategies for Week 8 and beyond, but I'd really like to hear your opinions now...

Are you keeping discounts? Are you dropping your pricier players to get a better balance? Is Drogba gone? Are you losing faith in Bale with VDV on the scene? I'd be interested to read the different approaches people are taking...I'm sure it could spark some lively debate!

Cheers,
AM