Week 1 - Player Picks

Readers from last season will know my Weekly Player Picks posts normally appear a couple days before the weekend, Wednesday or Thursday, but with this being the first week I thought it would be nice to get them up early!

I'll start by saying that this will be the most difficult post I write this season. We have no real idea of starting XI's, we have no true indication of the form or fitness of individual players (pre-season tells us very little), we have no way of knowing if new signings will adapt to the rigours of the Premier League, so it's very difficult to produce a list I feel 100% confident with.

However, having analysed the Week 1 Fixtures in a previous post, I've identified the sides with favourable matches (Chelsea, Man Utd, Wigan & Aston Villa in particular), and put together my recommendations based on that. There's likely to be some players here who don't end up making the line-up come next weekend, but hopefully this will become apparent towards the end of the week as team news starts filtering through from the manager's press conferences (in Ancelotti's case, his actual starting team for the West Brom game - gotta love him!) and I can update accordingly.

So, for the first time this season here goes...

KEEPERS
Kirkland
Hilario

No mucking about here, Chris Kirkland is currently fit and Wigan face Blackpool at home, so at a cost of under 4.00 he's the keeper pick of the week by a country mile. Blackpool have not been able to bring in any quality over the summer, they will struggle to score goals and I fear for them - I see a repeat of the Derby County scenario from three seasons ago.

Van Der Sar & Friedel both have good chances of clean sheets at home to Newcastle and West Ham respectively, but are too pricey in my opinion, so the only other viable option for Week 1 would be Hilario. With Cech injured, the Portuguese keeper  looks set to start the season ahead of Turnbull and Chelsea have the best fixture of the opening weekend, but if you do go with him you must be aware that he is capable of almighty rickets as we saw with his -9.5 points vs Man City last season.

DEFENDERS
Bale
Kolarov
Evans
Terry
Dunne
Vermaelen
Boateng
Figueroa
Koscielny
Ferreira
O'Shea/Rafael/Fabio
Foley
Berra
Steinsson
Bardsley
Jacobson

I'm really torn on Gareth Bale; 13+ is a hell of lot to spend on a defensive spot, and it will mean I need to scrimp elsewhere, but he's likely to continue on the left wing, was consistently putting up 15-20 points per week towards the end of last season, and he's been outstanding in the 3 pre-season games I've seen him in. I really need to make a decision on Bale before I start constructing my midfield/forwards because of the swing in available funds that decision will produce.

I have no doubt that Kolarov will be in my team when the deadline passes on Saturday, he'll get forward and take plenty of set pieces, so there's every chance he could become this year's defensive "season-keeper" (previously Vermalen, Bosingwa, Paintsil, Bale). If you're spending money then Evans (in Rio's absence), Terry & Dunne all have great chances of clean sheets and are proven to score fantastic fantasy points, while Vermaelen's goal threat is always worth considering. However, I think I'll either be spending big on Bale or going with some of the cheaper defensive options.

These cheaper options include the other new City signing Jerome Boateng, Arsenal's new boy Koscielny and Man Utd's fullbacks - two from O'Shea, Rafael & Fabio should start (with Evra not ready to start the season). Paulo Ferreira could start at right back for Chelsea and is very reasonably priced if that's the case, while Figueroa will bomb forward for Wigan and pick up plenty of decent attacking points, along with a possible clean sheet.

Some outside bets to save cash include Wolves duo Christophe Berra & Kevin Foley, Bolton's Gregor Steinsson, Phil Bardsley at a cost of under 5.00, who could start due to Sunderland's injuries and suspensions carried over from last season, and the similarly priced Lars Jacobson, who's been getting plenty of pre-season minutes for Blackburn.

MIDFIELDERS
Lampard
M.Petrov
Malouda
Nani
Valencia * (added)
Adam
N'Zogbia
Nasri
A.Young
Hitzlsperger
J.Cole
Kuyt
Dunn
Etherington
Jarvis
Silva
Rodwell

There's a reason you'll pay over 20 for Frank Lampard - he's a fantasy football points machine, on set pieces, on penalties, and he faces West Brom, at home. Much like Bale, it's very difficult to argue against his inclusion...it all comes down to price, and whether you can include Lampard in your side without causing too much unbalance. If you can't find the funds then Malouda is a fantastic alternative, as he now operates as a left sided forward, a move made by Ancelotti which has revived FloMo's Chelsea career.

Martin Petrov's move to Bolton is an exciting one for fantasy managers, as he's another who is capable of producing fantastic points as a goal threat from midfield. At under 10 he's a must have for Week 1, with my only concern being his injury record, although it will be interesting to see if he can wrestle set piece duties from Matt Taylor. Nani is also right up there in my thoughts for the first week, he's back from injury and if he starts he'll take most corners/free-kicks at home to Newcastle. (* Valencia has been added after his Community Shield performance.)

Charlie Adam will be a new name for many who don't follow the Championship, but he was instrumental in Blackpool's promotion last season and will be at the heart of everything good they do. He'll take all kicks and as a new player he's available at the bargain price of 5.43 - jump on the bandwagon! Charles N'Zogbia has been angling for a move away from Wigan, but he should still be there on the first day of the season and will be looking to impress potential buyers, Nasri has had an outstanding pre-season for Arsenal and is an option at Liverpool, while Ashley Young is another set piece taker whose stock rises if Milner completes his move to Man City this week. He'll also be boosted by his inclusion in Capello's new-look England Squad.

Joe Cole will want to make an instant impact at Anfield, and there would be no better way then a strong performance in front of the Kop vs old foes Arsenal. We'll have to wait to see how he settles in, but at a shade over 7.00 he could be worth a look. West Ham's new boy Thomas Hitzlsperger has been in the Premier League before, and I remember him as the player with hardest shot I've ever seen. Aston Villa away is tough, but he'll have his chances to shoot from distance and he never turns those opportunities down. Plus, he's dead cheap!

David Dunn, Matt Etherington and Matt Jarvis are three favourites from last season who will take set pieces (noticing a pattern here?) and all are nicely priced between £8m-£10m, Kuyt is now listed as a midfielder, while David Silva is sure to become a favourite at City and is very tempting at 5.43. However, I'm not sure he'll be ready to face Spurs having only joined up with the squad a few days ago, so wait for team news before making that leap (barndoor!). The final player on the list is Everton's Jack Rodwell - this will be his real breakthrough season, I see him as a future England star, and he should be given more match time by David Moyes this season. He costs under 5 and I'm considering him as my first hunch pick of the season if team news suggests he could start at Blackburn.

STRIKERS
Drogba
Rooney
Anelka
Agbonlahor
Bent
Chamakh
Boselli 
Rodallega
Biram Diouf
N'Gog

Not too many strikers interest me for Week 1, which explains why the list is a lot shorter than other positions. The uncertainty of fitness levels combined with high prices and tough fixtures means players like Torres & Van Persie are excluded, but the big question we're all asking is - will Drogba start? And if he does start, how fit will he be? We'll have to see if he comes off the bench in the Community Shield today, but luckily for us (as mentioned earlier in this post), Ancelotti will probably name his team to face West Brom in his Friday press conference. If he's playing, I will almost certainly pick him. If not, I'll go with Anelka.

I also really want Wayne Rooney, who will be looking to bounce back from his shocking World Cup, and has a great scoring record vs Newcastle, but fitting both him and Drogba in one team will be very difficult to achieve. For that reason I'm almost hoping Drogba doesn't make it, as Anelka will leave me an extra £6m to spend.

Gabby Agbonlahor is a strange player when it comes to fantasy football - he never seems to score many points when I pick him, even when he scores goals, but his pace will stretch West Ham at Villa Park, so there are far worse options and he's a good alternative if you don't want to follow the crowd by going with Drogba/Rooney. I'll throw Darren Bent in for the same reason, a great goal scorer, on penalties, and playing at home vs Birmingham.

We then come to two new strikers, Chamakh for Arsenal, who has looked really sharp in pre-season and Boselli of Wigan, who as we know face Blackpool. It's always a risk picking new strikers, because (1) They might not start, and (2) I think it's the hardest position to settle in to in the Premier League. However, they offer the chance of goals at bargain prices, so I will probably go for one of the newbies. If Hernandez impresses vs Chelsea today then I'll be adding him to the list above.

Hugo Rodallega was dead to many of us last year after constantly disappointing when selected, but I can't completely ignore him given his fixture. Biram Diouf, on loan from Man Utd, is a player I like, he'll start for Blackburn and scored on his debut last night, while David N'gog seems to have improved dramatically and could be be a good choice for someone looking to do something a bit different.

That completes my Week 1 Player Picks, and desite the fact it's taken me almost 4 hours to construct, it's good to be back! This is what sits on team page at the moment...

Kirkland

Koscielny  Kolarov  Bardsley

Malouda  Petrov  Adam  Nani

Boselli  Rooney  Anelka

...but a lot will change before the deadline, with Drogba and Bale still possibilities (among others).

How's your team shaping up for Week 1? Anyone you feel I've missed?

Cheers,
AM

p.s. Blog League 8 (the final one) details now up: http://yahoofantasyfootballuk.blogspot.com/2010/07/join-blog-leagues.html