Week 38 - Player Picks

Week 38 - the final week of the 2010/2011 Premier League season - is here, and with that comes my final Player Picks posts of the season.

It's always a very difficult weekend to pick a team for as there's often a carnival atmosphere at grounds on the final Sunday, especially where things have already been secured or there is very little to play for. Manager's are likely to give fringe/youth players a run-out, games can descend in to training ground matches and you end up with some quite strange results.

For these reasons you should look to avoid picking too many players from teams whose seasons are pretty much over already and focus on players involved in the fight for survival and the race for Europe. This has led me to a different approach this week, looking at individual teams rather than stand-out fixtures.

Lets start with the "nothing to play for" teams...

Man Utd
Chelsea
Everton
Aston Villa
Bolton
Fulham
Stoke
West Ham
Sunderland
Newcastle
West Brom

I suppose a lot of the sides in mid-table could still improve on their final league positions which will earn them some extra prize-money, but there's no specific target for any of them, so it's unpredictable how the teams will line-up and how motivated players will be to perform. I don't expect any side to roll-over easily - especially those playing in front of their own fans - but I'm wary nonetheless.

Man Utd are already Champions and have a Champions League final next weekend, so they'll rest most the first choice XI. Chelsea and Everton meet at Goodison where neither side can improve their league position, Villa have a tough home game vs Liverpool and out-of-form Bolton face majorly in-form Man City.

Fulham host an Arsenal side looking to end a disappointing season on a high note, Newcastle and West Brom, two very evenly matched teams, face-off at St James' Park and relegated West Ham and Sunderland meet in a game neither side will want to play.

If I had any preference out of these teams it would be Man Utd, a winning mentality existing throughout the squad, with some big names still involved (Berbs, Nani) and Newcastle, with 50,000 Geordies cheering them on after a fine 1st season back in the top flight and a Top 10 finish possible. Other than that, not a lot to get excited about.

No such worry for the teams fighting to avoid relegation, to avoid the qualifying rounds of the Champions League or to to secure Europa League football....

Wolves - Survival
Blackburn - Survival
Wigan - Survival
Blackpool - Survival
Birmingham - Survival
Spurs - Europa
Liverpool - Europa
Man City - 3rd Place
Arsenal - 3rd Place

Wolves have hit form at the right time and I expect them to beat Blackburn, which will leave Blackburn looking at other results in their hope for survival. Wigan could grab 3 points as they travel to a Stoke team broken by their FA Cup final loss, with injuries starting to mount up.

Blackpool will go for it at Old Trafford, and even though I think United might win, it'll be a very open game with lots of attacking points available. Spurs host Birmingham, with Spurs needing a win to secure 5th and Birmingham needing a win to get out of trouble, so it should be a cracker!

Liverpool have had a great run in the past few months and will still believe they can grab 5th if they win at Villa and Birmingham do them a favour. Man City are flying and I expect them to win at Bolton to secure an automatic Champions League spot, while Arsenal will be trying to claw back 3rd from them to avoid the qualifying rounds.

I expect all 9 of these teams to be setting out with the intent to attack and win their games. This is likely to mean we see less clean sheets, but there'll be more chances for defenders to pick up points by getting forward at set pieces and winning tackles/blocking the numerous goal attempts coming  their way. Obviously it's the midfielders and strikers where you'll really see the benefit, with goals, assists and attacking points galore!

With all that in mind, for the final time this season, here are the players...

KEEPERS
Cudicini
Krul
Hennessey

Cudicini has played the last 2 games for Spurs and conceded just 1 goal, the own goal by Crouch which he had no chance with. The defence looks solid with King alongside Dawson, so he could be a fine option. Krul is dirt cheap and Newcastle have a good chance of a win at home to West Brom (Odem/Brunt giving him save opportunities), while Hennessey is my pick of the relegation threatened keepers, at home to Blackburn.

DEFENDERS
Vermaelen
Fabio
King
Craddock
Kaboul
Wilson
Spector
Heitinga

Quite a random array of options here - even though Verm scored poorly vs Villa we know what he's capable of, so at 5.6 he really is the pick of the bunch. I can't see Fabio starting the Champions League final so I think he'll continue, while Ledley King was immense against Liverpool despite it being his first game since October and I expect him to show his class against Birmingham.

Jody Craddock has been in the list as a filler for the past couple of week, but I've always been aware that he carries a goal threat at set plays (5 PL goals last season) and he proved it last weekend - he remains a great pick this weekend. Kaboul is a cheaper option than King if you want a Spurs defender while Wilson is a guaranteed starter for Stoke at a price that will enable you to spend more elsewhere.

John Spector is playing midfield for West Ham and is below 4, while Mr Heitinga closes the defenders list. He's only a filler, priced below 2.00, but be prepared for possible negative points from the tough tackling Dutchman.

MIDFIELDERS
Adam
N'Zogbia
O'Hara
Larsson
Nani
VDV*/Modric (*injury dependent)
R.Taylor
Hitz (@5 only)
Ward
Scholes

A definite relegation feel to the top 4 in this list, Charlie Adam, Charles N'Zogbia, Jamie O'Hara & Seb Larsson are the set piece takers for Blackpool, Wigan, Wolves & Birmingham and I expect them to be behind everything good their sides do this weekend, with plenty of successful crosses and various other attacking points. My preference is the order I've listed them, although Adam will stretch the budget at full price.

I'm fairly certain Nani will start the CL final on the bench with Fergie preferring Park, Giggs, Carrick, Fletcher & Valencia in the bigger games. I therefore think he'll get a start this weekend and you have to think he'll (a) be looking to impress, and (b) have plenty of chances to score great points in an open game. Van Der Vaart would be a great pick but he's a doubt with a calf injury - Modric would take set pieces & penalties in his absence with Bale out.

Ryan Taylor is an old YFF favourite, a fantastic option with terrific dead-ball delivery when fit, which sadly for him has been rare this season. The good news now is he's back, and I grabbed him on the barndoor at 5 last weekend, but even at current price he's a good pick. Hitz should be kept if you have him at 5, Ward is still priced at 4, playing as a support-striker and Paul Scholes could be set for his final Old Trafford appearance.

STRIKERS
Tevez
Berbatov
Van Persie
Fletcher
Rodallega
DJ Campell
Suarez
Ba
Owen

Tevez was back with a bang on Tuesday night and as noted by Neal in The Week Ahead, it looks like a straight shoot-out for the Golden Boot between the City man and Dimitar Berbatov. They're currently tied on 21 goals each, so expect both to start - and shoot at every opportunity! Van Persie would've been up there had he been fit, but 17 goals is still a fine return and I'm sure he'll add to his total at Fulham.

The pick of the relegation strikers are Wolves' Fletcher, whose goals have been vital in the run in, Hugo Rodallega, who is dangerous and should score more goals and DJ Campbell, a player who has surpassed everyone's expectations with 13 goals. All 3 are fine choices as they look to fire their teams to survival.

Luiz Suarez goes to Villa looking to finish his half-season at Liverpool with another strong performance so I'm probably keeping him at 7. Ba is one of the few bright spots in West Ham's torrid campaign so despite his price he's not a bad call and the final player in my players list is Michael Owen, who should start alongside Berbatov and who costs just 1.75.

Done for the season!

My own team looks like this at the moment:

Krul, Craddock, Wilson, Vermaelen, Hitzlsperger, R.Taylor, N'Zogbia, Adam, Suarez, Van Persie, Tevez

I'm still holding Cudicini & Kaboul at discount behind the scenes and I'm still considering Fabio, O'Hara, Nani & Berbatov. There's no doubt my strike-force + Adam is hurting other areas of my team, so it's possible I make some quite big changes before deadline. I'll let you know what those are once I know!

Remember that the deadline for Week 38 is midday (UK time) on SUNDAY, so my Update post will be written on Saturday afternoon. I'll be at my mate (Wolves fan) Luke's birthday BBQ all day/night and I'm taking my laptop with me to write it, so expect the post to be written in stages, with the quality taking a severe nose-dive as beer consumption increases. Hopefully Wolves will be celebrating survival come Sunday - out of all the teams they're the side I'd most like to see stay up.

Two final things:

1. With no football over the summer I'll be taking a bit of a break from blogging in the off season, but I'll definitely be back next season. There may well be some changes coming, so please join the AM Blog Facebook Group or follow me on Twitter to allow me to keep you updated on any exciting developments!

2. Thank you so much to each and every one of you for all your amazing support this season. The blog continues to be hard work but it is 100% worth it when I see the community we've created here; the fantastic comments offering advice to your fellow players, the non-stop assistance in the chatroom and the amazing success people have had, with the [AM.Blog] tag littering the leaderboard. I'm very proud to have started it all but I'm even prouder to be a part of what it's become.

I'll leave it there. Please let me know how your final team of the season is shaping up and I'll see you back here for the drunken Saturday Update post!

Cheers,
AM