Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Week 36 - Player Picks

The end is nigh - just 3 fantasy weeks to go until the end of the 2010/11 season. Week 36 is our final double game week this term and unfortunately it's one of those annoying occasions when only two teams have two games.

Those teams are Tottenham Hotspur & Manchester City. City are in form, Spurs are not, but Spurs have a nice fixture at home to Blackpool (probably the stand-out game of the weekend in terms of attacking fantasy points), whereas City have a tough trip away to Everton. The sides then meet at Eastlands where City are favourites, but a draw wouldn't be a great surprise.

The big question is - which players do we think are certain to start both fixtures? When you think about it there aren't actually that many we can be sure of getting two games. Spurs will field their strongest side in both, but City have an FA Cup final coming up, so with 4th almost in the bag they could rest some players.

I see it like this:

Spurs DG certainties: Gomes, Gallas, Dawson, Sandro, Modric, Bale, VDV
City DG certainties: Hart, Kompany, Lescott, Kolarov, Yaya, Silva

Balotelli, Lennon, AJ, Dzeko, Defoe, De Jong, Pavlychenko, Milner, Crouch, Barry, Kaboul & Zabaleta are all likely to get one start (except maybe Defoe) and some may start both, but I'm less confident about them. Strikers are a big problem for Spurs as none of them are likely to start both, with Dzeko & Balotelli likely to get a start each & Tevez's possible return for the second game only adding to the confusion.

Kaboul could go down as a certainty at right-back if Corluka's injury is as bad as it looked (with Bale moving to left-back) and Zabaleta the same if Richards isn't ready. Both sides are struggling defensively at the moment so there isn't a lot of room for rotation, although Boyata & Bassong are available. I've ignored Jenas, Pienaar, Hudd, Vieira & Wright Phillips as I doubt they'll see much pitch time.

Now of course it's not only the DGers we have to worry about, there are 18 other teams playing once in Week 36. There aren't really any real stand-out fixtures but there are some decent ones.

Should Win
SPURS v Blackpool
BOLTON v Sunderland
ASTON VILLA v Wigan
WEST BROM @ Wolves
ARSENAL @ Stoke
LIVERPOOL @ Fulham


After Spurs I reckon Bolton & Villa are probably my favourites here against two struggling teams, followed closely by massively in-form West Brom at Wolves. Arsenal have no pressure and Stoke have one eye on the FA Cup final so I think the Gunners will shade it, while Liverpool are on fire under Dalglish so may have too much even for a vastly improved Fulham. Definitely some nice SGers about from these teams.

Close/Draws
Man Utd v Chelsea
Newcastle v Birmingham
West Ham v Blackburn
Everton v Man City
Man City v Spurs


All these games look close on paper, I can't really favour either side, so while the odd SGer looks appealing I wouldn't go crazy. I'd especially avoid spending big money in the Man Utd v Chelsea match as I expect that one to be as fiery as it gets!

We move on to the players and while I always say you should fit in as many DGers in as you can, I think there are plenty of doubts over City & Spurs players playing twice, so use the information above/below and your own initiative to make your decisions.

KEEPERS
Gomes
Hart
Friedel
Carson


DEFENDERS
Kolarov
Bale
Kompany
Gallas
Lescott
Dawson
Kaboul
Luiz
Shorey
P.Robinson
Craddock


MIDFIELDERS
Van Der Vaart
Silva
Modric
Yaya Toure
A.Johnson

Lennon
Sandro

A.Young
Brunt
Hitzlsperger
CY Lee
Nolan
Arteta


STRIKERS
Balotelli

Crouch
Dzeko
Pavlyuchenko
Suarez
Sturridge
Bent
Van Persie
Odemwingie
Keane


That's it - I'll try to do some analysis later tonight or tomorrow, but I think it's quite self explanatory this week.

My own team page currently looks like this:

Hart, Kaboul, Kolarov, Gallas, Yaya, Modric, Silva, VDV, Suarez, Dzeko, Crouch

I'm not certain on it at all & could actually see myself ending up with just 6 or 7 DGers.

Kaboul's place depends on team news so Luiz (held behind the scenes) could stay. I may downgrade Hart to Friedel/Carson and look to bring Sturridge (if fit) in for Dzeko or Crouch (although I have a hunch he may score well vs Blackpool).

I haven't counted out trying to fit Bale in somewhere. I quite like my midfield but could trade Yaya to Hitzlsperger closer to deadline. Kolarov, Gallas, Modric, Silva, VDV & Suarez will stay.

I'll leave it there for this week but I'll be back on Friday for a full Update post (no weddings!). Please let me know how your team is shaping up for Week 36. What's your opinions on the DGers?

Cheers,
AM

49 comments:

Nikhil said...

good post. i like that you have gomes higher than hart, not the better quality goalie but that blackpool game is very attractive and spurs can pull off a win against city.

but of course ill care more about the chelsea game then anything else haha keep the blue flag flying high

kwyjibo said...

I was having a little fun this week while waiting for the player picks post...Check it out:

Twins

Let me know of any more!

Fleeties said...

I can see John Terry as Mr. Burns now!

Anybody else seen Demba Ba's price rocket?

joo said...

Great Post as always but AM,
YP Lee??? There was a former Spurs LB Young Pyo Lee...You mean Chung Young Lee Of Bolton?

-Ryan

bengoh91 said...

Wrote a long post yesterday which failed to publish. Wasted effort. Now I finally figured out how to post comments.

Team stands at this atm

Gomes
Kolarov Bale Kompany
VDV Silva Yaya Modric
Suarez Balotelli Pavy

I have tried to cut down on getting players who are rotation risks. Lots of funds to play with this week as I have VDV@6 and Kolarov@5. Not that I am complaining.

kwyjibo said...

As far as team picks go, VdV + Bale is really a big chunk of cash. Also, although I have Hart @9.69, he makes me nervous with two tough matches. I'll probably keep VdV, but Bale and Hart may get down-graded.

Currently:
Hart
Kolarov-Gallas-Bale
Silva-Toure-Hitz-VdV-Modric
Suárez-Dzeko

9 DGers, but not all together happy with it. Some major reshuffling may be in the works...

kwyjibo said...

@Fleeties - the effect would be even better if I could figure out how to give Terry a bald spot, and make it look realistic!

Assistant Manager said...

-Ryan - Correct, not sure what made me think of YP! I meant Bolton's Lee :)

paddyfc said...

first time here, anyone think thomas vermaelen might get a start, stoke away probably not the best team to make your comeback against

KRB said...

Prefer Hart over Gomes.

I am looking at the following week, and I like Hart's (stoke) match up better than Gomes' (liverpool), and Hart maybe a tad more expensive after his DG this week.

- Spanner.

HarambeeStars said...

@paddyfc
If Vermaelen plays I would get him on BD rather getting him for this week. It'll be better to get DG defenders.

Hart
Kol Luiz Gallas Bale
Hitz VdV Silva Modric
Suarez Balo

This is what I had saved on Saturday so I will be making a few changes...Balo in particular is giving me doubts.

Not sure how fast Tevez is recovering, but if he features in one of the games it's not worth getting a city forward and I don't trust any Spurs strikers...Bent or Sturridge...hmmm

Thatguy said...

what is the story with Defoe? Is he injured or do people just think that he won't play either game.

Thanks

kwyjibo said...

@Thatguy - Defoe isn't injured, he's just not guaranteed playing time.

Here's a good article on the Spurs DGers. It's for the FPL game, not YFF, but still some good info...

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2011/05/04/scouting-the-doubles-spurs/

There should be a similar Man City article up there some time before the weekend, too.

izwan mohamad said...

Great post AM!!!As always :) regards from south east asia.I'm a Liverpool's fan and yet my team are banking on Spurs to win both games.How ironic is that :)

Gomes
Kolarov Gallas Kaboul
VDV Silva Yaya Modric
Suarez Crouch(ouch!) Pav

Just got a feeling that Spurs will burn Blackpool.And maybe a tough away win.Make or break :)

Gud luck 2 all...

kendo said...

I'm loading up on city players think it's
Worth the risk

Hart Kol lescott silva yaya Dejong ballotelli

Suarez rvp Adam @ 5.40 Luiz @ 5.95

kwyjibo said...

I don't know, the more I read makes me really worried about Man City picks. To quote the Fantasy Football Scout:

"Should City earn three points at Everton, then fourth spot would be secured and that would surely see Mancini shuffle his pack against Spurs prior to the FA Cup Final with Stoke just four days later. Toure and particularly Silva, would then both appear to be vulnerable. Heavy investment in City’s double gameweek prospects could go largely unrewarded..."

Kellz said...

Some one had asked in an earlier thread what the reason for going 100% Hart is over Reina or Gomes, and admittedly I am having a problem choosing my keeper for this week as well.

The way I see it, Gomes is prone to having a gaffe (just see Chelsea match) has only racked up a paltry 7 CS, and even with a decent first match, has a crocked defense in front of him.

Hart has been pretty consistent all year, is the 2nd highest point scorer for GK, has made an out standing 15 CS (same as Cech) and has more difficult but more sturdy defense in front of him. Over two games I'd imagine he'll get more saves, and I would be scared to have Gomes away to Citeh.

Reina is another decent bet, albiet a single gamer, but has amassed 14 CS, but with a defense that is still a bit makeshift with Flannigan, but hell, isn't it working nicely? I'd still go Reina over Gomes.

Bottom line i'd go: Hart, Reina, Gomes, Fridel, Carson for this week in that order.

Kellz said...

Big ifs and buts on my team ATM:

Hart
Gallas, Luiz, Kolarov
VDV, Lampard, Silva, Yaya
Suarez, Balotelli, Defoe

1.71mil left

I could swap Hart, Gallas, Yaya to Carson, Bale, Sandro, but I hate the fact I would be using 2 fillers. However, depending on team news, if Bale will be in MF then he may be worth it, I just feel a goal from him. I think AM is pretty spot on with the players that SHOULD play twice. I am thinking Tevez wont start either, maybe get a run in just for some fitness, but Dzeko could easily replace AJ/Barry if Mancini goes 4-4-2 at home, but I see Balotelli starting and playing both.

Otherwise I am keeping my contingent of SG in Luiz @5.95, Lampard @13, and Suarez @7 who have served me extremely well these past 4-5 weeks. Could be a huge risk with Utd at home, but I am hoping they will be tired from Wed Champions League match. Lampard just seems to keep scoring, even if its been pretty lucky or a terrible miss call by the ref.

Speed addict said...

i hold foster at 7.89 and he give me big -6.5 week 35. Should i keep him or get other keeper for week 36? any comment will be appreciated.

ebi s. said...

Kellz, love your analysis man.

benjitrain said...

Need advice:
Bale and Craddock or Crouch and Kolarov

SCOTT said...

@ benjitrain - Crouch and Kolarov would be my vote mate.

Das Boot said...

@Kellz - I'm rooting for Chelsea as well, but I wouldn't bank too heavily on United players being tired based on today's lineup and the relatively straightforward victory. Still, I like the discounts you have and would most likely make the same decisions (in fact, I am keeping Luiz & Suarez at discount). Good luck!

DasBoot_8

Thomas said...

Why do you think Silva and Toure are guaranteed 2 gamers AM?

If City beat everton thats 4th guaranteed with fa cup final 4 days later and we all know Mancins thoughts on 2 games in a week.

If they beat everton I defo see both being kept for final.

Das Boot said...

Currently on:

Hart
Luiz, Kolarov, Gallas
AYoung, Silva, VDV, Yaya, Hitz
Suarez, Pavlyuchenko

kwyjibo said...

@Thomas - That's my worry, too, which is why I'm starting to rethink my lineup. I had 9 DGers, but now I'm down to 7, and may even go down further.

Currently:
Hart
Kolarov-Gallas-P.Robinson
Silva-Hitz-VdV-Modric
Suarez-Dzeko-Odemwingie

I'm just short of switching Dzeko for Sturridge, I may try to work it out somehow depending on his injury news.

Ken said...

My thoughts of staying on attack over defense has me leaning on Kolarov over Hart at (9.69). Would have to cut more then I would like to fit in both.

Currently holding
Carson
Luiz/Gallas/Kolarov
VDV/Silva/Hitz/Modric
Suarez/Bent/Odemwingie

Wish I knew more about Modric and his current play. I did see last weeks game and Sandro looked in good form but most are saying Modric is the way to go. Also think it is wise to avoid having both Silva/Yaya as pitch time (may) be a factor.

Actually believe Fridel to be best bargin goaltender this week and may still work him in once I decide on Modric...

@kwyjibo
Appears, looking at our teams, we are reading all the same material, although I am not considering adding Sturridge.
No reason..just not.

Good luck this week:

alvin said...

hi guy.. any comments on my team atm :-

carson
kola/ bale / kaboul / gallas
vdv / hitz / valencia
sturridge / odem / carlton cole

only city player is kola i know , but with the fa cup coming up soon after the match against tottenham too many man city players are lottery. so staying away from them except kola who i got for 4.43. going with loads of tottenham def hoping the keep clean sheet against black pool and anything extra against man city is a bonus! valencia is in form, and i hope the rest of the team outscores city's DGers!!

any thoughts?

The LC said...

Hi Guys.

Im reasonably happy with my team for this week

Hart
Kolorov, Lescott, Luiz / Gallas
Silva, VDV, Sandro, AJ
Balotelli, Crouch, Bent

I know about the rotation risk with City, but even if they do rotate i cn see 2 city wins. (I hope not being a Utd fan, but i can see it.)

Any suggestions?

Thanks
LC

Ken said...

Trying to follow the logic on the (possible) rotation of City players.

Seems to be agreed upon that Tottenham should do well against Blackpool with a couple possible goals and dare I say.. a clean sheet.

Now, IF City Beat Everton and the rest/rotation factor comes into play, that rest/rotation of players would be against the Spurs and even though it will still be a tough game, it is possible that the Spurs would be facing a somewhat "diminished" City team. Seems like if that IS the case players like Bale, Modric, Sandro, Gallas, and VDV, could be the better play. Oh, and whatever Spurs striker you may roll the dice on.
I have reconsidered Odemwingie and have move in Bale as a 20 point game from Odemwingie is now a very manageable 10+10 from Bale.

Worth the risk I believe..

Am I buying to much rotation hype?

paulyff said...

PAULYS FAB FILLERS - WEEK 36

As you all know this week is a DG week, but, apart from Sandro (Tott) & de Jong (ManC), unlikely that any other fillers will play 2 matches.
So here's the best of the rest if you need cheap & cheerful with good match-ups:

GK
Friedel AVilla 4.08 H **
Krul Newc 3.39 H *
Carson WBrom 2.06 A *

DF
Robinson Bolt 5.96 H **
Spector WHam 4.75 H **
Jiranek Bham 5.99 A *

MF
de Jong MCity 5.08 DG **
Hitzlsperger WHam 5.79 H **
Valencia ManU 5.89 H ** ?
Scharner WBrom 5.46 H **
Sandro Tott 6.33 DG **
Tioté Newc 4.01 H *

FW
Keane WHam 6.00 H **
K Davies Bolt 5.63 H **
Moreno Bolt 4.58 H *(if Sturridge out)
Varney Bpool 5.98 A *

That's it for this week- we're counting down now for the finish so good luck to you all!

Pauly

Thomas said...

Nope Ken you're not.

Even if City draw with Everton I still think Johnson will be rested for SWP,
Tevez will cut short either Baoltelli/dzeko and possibly Silva, Viera will come in for De Jong or Barry and Richards for Zabaleta or Kolorov.

kwyjibo said...

It sounds as if Sturridge will play:

"[Owen Coyle] also revealed that Daniel Sturridge and Gretar Steinsson should return to training today, in time for the game. He admitted that the fixture will probably come too soon for Mark Davies though."

Kellz said...

@Ken: The hardest part of Double Games is picking the right players, and even then its still a crap shoot as even the best players can have off days. But regardless of the matchups in this double week, I think its important to go atleast 7 DG players, and I think AM has assembled a good list of probable 2 gamers who will beat the dreaded sub rotation.

Kellz said...

Biggest dilema I am facing currently is Defoe/Gallas or Crouch/Dawson. I am leaning towards the latter, it was Crouch after all that put Spurs into the Champions League last season with a winner against Citeh. Also looking at how ineffective Pav and Defoe were last game, hoping Aryy throws a bone to Crouch for the first match atleast. 2 SOT and i'll be happy for the week.

ebi s. said...

When you're all through, i need someone to pick my team for me because alone i wouldn't be able to do it

Currently on

Hart
Luiz Kolarov Zabaleta Bale
Vdv Touré Silva
Suarez Balotelli Pav/defoe

Dylan said...

I can on only choose 2 which ones should i take: sliva, modric, or kolarov

kwyjibo said...

Seems rather quiet in here without the anons!

@Dylan - are all three at full-price? Modric will most likely play 2, so I would pick him. As for the other 2, it depends on what happens in the Everton match, but both have a chance to have their playing time limited in the second.

If you have Kolarov at discount (@4.xx) like many of us do, keep him for sure. At full price it's almost a toss up. Get Silva if you need extra funds elsewhere, plus the fact that he won't be affected if Man City loses the clean sheet.

Hope this helps. Good luck!

steven said...

does anyone think piennaar will play? he came on as a sub last week and I think harry will put him back in this week. it's no coincidence spurs poor form has coincided with him being injured (I think so anyway)

Ian Sanderson said...

Here's a strange choice that's causing me a headache.....

Van Persie (17xx) or.......Bale (17xx)

RVP's done well for me lately, but Stoke tend to muscle him out the game a bit also I'll be dropping him next week so discount doesn't come into it.
Bale, obviously, has 2 games but hasn't prooved himself since his injury.
Hold RVP but leaning towards Bale, thoughts appreciated.

Chaos said...

Well I'd say Bale over RVP for sure.

However after your now infamous rants about DG's maybe you shold hold on to RVP.

Currently 32nd overal, will be having Bale in my team for sure.

Ian Sanderson said...

Thank you Chaos, I think, lol.

Ken said...

I have come to the conclusion that the more you know and understand about the SPORT the harder this GAME becomes.

My main concern has been with Kolarov (full price) and I have decided to pass. Seems like if there is no clean sheets all City defenders over the past 6-8 weeks have very low returns. Going with Lescott which allows an upgrade of two players, both double gamers...nothing I can do about possible rotation as it applies to such a wide range of players,oh well!

Team with projected points totals...

Friedel...20 points
Luiz..23 points
Bale...30-points
Lescott...12 points
VDV (Hat Trick)....38 points
Silva.....28 points
Hits and miss berger. HIT...22 points
YaYa....19 points
Modric...23 points
Suarez (Hat Trick)...38 points
Bent (Hat Trick).....33 points

Total--286!

Good luck all...

David said...

AM--

Just wanted to congratulate you on the decision to shut out the anons. Much more pleasant blog now that the idiots have lost their platform.

BTW--I now log in as "David" but was formerly "Dave."

ebi s. said...

@Ken, i think Lescot will score the mwg, so you're looking at an extra 14 points that'll take your total 300. good luck

@David, the idiots been all those who posted anonymously previously? the blog will surely be better without the extra insults i think.

BTW i now log in as "Ebi" formerly "anon"

paulyff said...

Lol Ebi !

NB Filler Update :
Scharner (WBrom) is suspended so I belatedly remove him from my Picks. Sorry for the bad info. The Fantasist Formerly Known as Anon

Irons said...

Cock-Suckers, the lot of you..

:p

kwyjibo said...

That's kind of strange...teams 20-19-18 all start with 'W', as they have for much of the season, but now 17-16-15 all start with 'B'. OK, yes, I know, I'm a geek for noticing...

Anyway, there is a great article about the trouble with choosing City players:

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2011/05/05/the-masterplan-city-investment/

The most telling stats, I feel, are this:

"If you extract their recent 5-0 humiliation of Sunderland, City have mustered just six goals in seven outings. Away from home the statistics are more damming – just two goals in four games with three defeats in that run; hardly form that suggests we can prepare for heavy attacking returns from Mancini's men."

Ian Sanderson said...

@kwyjibo - fantasyfootballscout is analysing games for the 'official' ff game not the Yahoo game; that game focusses much more on points for goals scored, whereas Yahoo game has a much broader scope for points.

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