Week 27 - Update

Loads to get through - and lots of if has a big impact on the upcoming double week - so lets get right into the details.

- Tottenham will definitely be without Bale, Modric & Van Der Vaart for their trip to Sunderland. Not only is this bad news for Spurs as they have a really tough game, but it's bad news for VDV discount owners. There's no guarantee he'll be fit for the 2nd double game either & Spurs don't have a game in Week 28, so at least 2 (possible 3) zeros are on the horizon... I'm afraid the time may have come to let him go. It hurts.

- Djourou and Song should be back for the Gunners, while Van Persie & Fabregas have made miraculous recoveries from their midweek illnesses, but Rosicky & Nasri are out. Arsenal NEED 6 points from these next 2 leagues game, and Wenger knows it. "Cesc and Van Persie will both be playing" he said on the club's official website. Game-on.

- Ben Foster is fit for Birmingham, and Martins could get a start after impressing in training. My gut tells me he'll be on the bench in his first game, but he should get at least one start across the double. Zigic should continue as McLeish had realised that David Bentley crossing to a giant works quite well.

- West Brom have a caretaker in-charge for their first game & Roy Hodgson in-charge for the second game, which makes it even more difficult to guess how they'll line-up. Fantasy Football Scout are reporting Chris Brunt, Boaz Myhill, Graham Dorrans and Marek Cech are all back in full training, so they have a full strength squad to choose from.

- Blackpool will probably make changes to the side that lost at Everton, so it's difficult to pick from their array of attacking options. One thing we know is Charlie Adam is definitely available for the first game. Whether he's available for the second game depends on his discipline. Carney represents fantastic value in defence for under £4m. With Crainey out he's the only available left-back, so he'll surely start both matches. Goalkeepers Paul Rachuba & Matt Gilks are both possibly out for the season.

- Leon Best and Nile Ranger are back for Newcastle.

- Stephen Hunt & Dave Edwards remain out for Wolves, so Jamie O'Hara should continue & represents good value.

- Tony Pulis has a full squad to pick from but may will probably keep the same team that beat Sunderland last weekend.

- Louis Saha will be out for up-to 3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Such a shame for him after hitting his best form, but unfortunately it's been the story of his career.

- Chris Smalling will start the Manchester derby alongside Vidic after Ferdinand & Evans were ruled out through injury. Hernandez also likely to miss out after returning late from international duty.

- Luiz will start for Chelsea

- Suarez will start for Liverpool

- Robbie Keane is out for 6 weeks after tearing his calf (ouch).

I'll keep updating this as more news filters through throughout the day.

Now; I saw Ken ask an excellent question  in the comments section of the last post about inconsistencies in keeping discounts, along the lines of "why do you keep some players at discount but drop others?". I'd say it comes down to two things - cost and return.

Keeping a cheap player at discount (VDV, Kolarov) is less of a burden because you still have plenty of funds to play with. Keeping Nani in for a week you'd rather not have him for can take up 17% of your budget.  People who own VDV at £6m have been getting an average of over 12 points per game, that's a 200% return. Nani has been averaging an excellent 14 points per games, but at £17m that's a much smaller return, which makes it easier to drop him in weeks like this. Another thing to think about is the overall Top 10 - how often do you see them holding discounts in weeks like this? Very rarely.

As I said in my player picks post, if I had Nani at £11m-13m I might keep him, but at almost £18m I can do too much with money to justify it when so many other players have a double week. As for keeping Adam @ 8 (small outlay compared to 17 for Nani) despite his 9YC situation - we're taking a risk that he doesn't get booked in the first game, but even if he doesn't he can easily score 16 points in that first game.

That's how I feel anyway, but I'm probably trying to justify my own decisions(!) so I'd like to hear other opinions. One thing I think we'll all agree on is dropping players at the right/wrong time can be the key to success/failure. I'm probably dropping Nani & VDV this week knowing it could make or break my season.

Here's how it looks:

Szczesny, Carr, Kolarov, Olsson, Koscielny, Adam, Bentley, Pennant, Fabregas, Odemwingie, Van Persie

It's 4-4-2, it has 10 DGers, and I really like it. I'll wait until the morning to pull the trigger on saving it so Carew, Nani & VDV are still there behind the scenes, but I'm 99% certain it'll be my final team.

That's it for Week 27 - I'm likely to see you all in the chat-room tonight/tomorrow morning, but until then please let me know what you settled on! Are you dropping Van Der Vaart @ 6? Are you dropping Nani @ 17 (or less)? Are you risking the dreaded 10th YC for Adam?

Cheers,
AM

UPDATE: Something interesting has been pointed out to me (via the comments section - thanks Dez) regarding Manchester United's "double" in Week 28 (@Wigan, @Chelsea), and it is this: If Chelsea beat Everton in their FA Cup replay next Saturday then their 5th round tie against Reading would take place on March 1 or 2, meaning Chelsea v Man United would be postponed, which would leave United with a single week. It may not change your approach, but I thought it was worth mentioning.