Early Picks - Week 1

Okay, so with 3 weeks still to go, a bunch of new signing still to come, and some existing players still to be added (the disappearing Dirk Kurt & Tim Cahill), it's very early to be picking a team...however, I have done just that. While I'm not going to reveal my exact team (it's going to change anyway) I have listed a few players on my mind at this early stage.

It's worth noting how I pick my players. I reckon that if you can be hitting an average of 90-100 points per round of fixtures (double that in 2-game weeks) you've got a pretty good chance of finishing in the Top 500. You have £100 million to spend, so I look at a player's price and decide if I think they will "return their value"... a player who costs me £6 million should really earn me 6 points. If all my players return their value, I'm looking at 100 points. It doesn't always work out exactly, but it's an effective way to approach the game each week.

e.g. For Week 1...
Didier Drogba has a market value of 10.68. He is playing 2 games, so the question I ask myself is: Do I think he will get around 21 points (2 x 10.68 = 21.36) for the week? If I do (which I do) then he will be considered.

However, if I look at Steven Gerrard, he has a market value of 20.45 & is also playing 2 games, so do I think he'll score 40 points (2 x 20.45 = 40.90) for the week? Despite the fact he is a great player, it's a big ask with an away fixture against Tottenham first up, so it's possible he is a bit too expensive for Week 1.

I hope that makes sense - I'm sure a lot of you do the same thing.

I also try to pick 1 player each week who I feel very few other teams will have. A good example in the past has been my unlikely hero, Danny Higginbotham, who scored twice for me on the 2 occasions I picked him in the 07/08 season. Sunderland had home games on both occasions & I'd noticed he was getting forward for corners in previous games I'd seen on TV. I got lucky the 2 weeks I picked him, but a lot of the successful players take risks & get lucky. I'd encourage anyone playing the game this season to make 1 "hunch" pick each week - it's very satisfying when it works!

Anyway, bare in mind I am only interested in players who I feel will definitely have 2 games in Week 1. The teams involved in 2 games (assuming Fulham reach the next stage of the Europa League) are Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, Wigan, Sunderland, Portsmouth, Stoke, Hull, Birmingham, Wolverhampton & Burnley.

So based on that...

STRIKERS:-
Rooney, Drogba, Torres, Berbatov, Defoe, Owen, Anelka, Rodellega, Doyle, Ebanks Blake.

From these the dream team is clearly Rooney, Torres, Drogba given the match-ups, but it's impossible to afford all 3 without gutting the rest of your team. Rooney is the premium pick ahead of Torres in my opinion, while Drogba is great value.

There are some alternatives in a cheaper bracket, such as Rodellega, who finished the season strongly and has decent fixtures for Wigan, whilst Berbatov & Owen are affordable, but who will start both game? Defoe will always rack up points with the number of shots he takes, and real outsiders are Wolves' Ebanks Blake or Kevin Doyle, who both only needs 2 shots on target in each of their 2 games to return their value for the week. Doyle has Premier League goals & experience, so could be a good dark horse. You also have Ricardo Fuller & Fraizer Campbell (who costs under 5) as cheap options, but I doubt I'll be considering them.

At the moment my front 3 will come from these 10 players, but of course a few new signings will be arriving before the season kicks off and with new forwards always added around the price of 6.37, there could still be some bargains to come. My top pick at the moment is Drogba - he offers the best value for money vs fixtures & potential points return. He'll be in my team if the team news says he's fit.


MIDFIELDERS:-
Lampard, Gerrard, Valencia, Malouda, Zhirkov, Lennon, Jordi Gomez, Sebastian Larsson, Kightly, Lawrence

Outside of my Strikers I will always try to pick players who take freekicks, corners &/or penalties. You must do this if you want to be successful - players who take set pieces will always put up points, even if they're on the losing team

My dream midfield would include Lampard, Gerrard & Valencia but again it's not really possible as it would cost me over 50% of my budget. I think it's going to come down to a choice between Lampard & Gerrard, I'm leaning towards Frank because he's a bit cheaper and has better fixtures. Valencia is also a great pick.

After that it comes down to players who are likely to attack & take set pieces. From an attacking point of view, Lennon & Malouda will both be flying but are a touch expensive. Jordi Gomez will probably feature for me as he has a great left foot as witnessed for Swansea and I believe he'll take alot of Wigan's corners & freekicks (and is very cheap). We know from previous seasons that Larsson does the same for Birmingham and is another great option. Lawrence does the same for Stoke but they don't have great fixtures (@ L'Pool) & Zhirkov, while cheap, still doesnt have a work permit so may not be match-fit for the new season (and will have to overtake Malouda).

Kightly is an interesting one; an attacking winger for Wolves and having seen many of their games last season he is a player I'm really excited about seeing step up a level. He's cheap and could be a decent "hunch" pick for Week 1. Finally, if you want to fill a space to save some £££, good ol' Aaron Mokoena has been shifted into midfield & can be snapped for under 1.5 units, although he's likely to get more game time for Portsmouth, so expect plenty of yellow cards.

My top pick: Lampard is a no-brainer in my opinion - buy buy buy!


DEFENDERS:-
Bosingwa, Evra, Painsil, Ricketts, Givet, Hreidarsson, Wilkinson, Queuedrue

Anyone who played last season will know that Bosingwa and Paintsil were a Godsend, especially if you'd picked them up in Week 1 for around 5 units each and kept them for the whole season. This year they both start more expensive, but are both still good options, as is Evra.

However, I never spend too much on my defence unless I have spare money left over, so i'll be keeping it cheap & simple, probably avoiding Evra & Bosingwa, with Givet or Wilkinson likely to be slotted in at under £5 million...and I'm keeping an eye on Sam Ricketts, Hull's attacking fullback who I believe is on his way to Portsmouth to replace Glen Johnson, and costs just 5.85. There's really not a lot of choice defensively, so I'm hoping some more cheap options might show up as transfers happen in the next 3 weeks.

My top pick/s: Sam Ricketts, if he moves to Pompey*, and MAYBE Evra if I have money left over!

* He has now moved to Bolton, who have 1 game...so he's no longer someone i'll consider, perhaps looking at Herman Hreidarsson instead.

KEEPERS:-
Kirkland, Van Der Sar, Cech,

Not too much to talk about here. I almost always go for the cheapest keeper who isn't likely to get trounced 4-0. My pick is likely to be Chris Kirkland as he's good value and has decent fixtures...but if you find yourself with loads of money left over you could be greedy and go for Van Der Sar or Cech. One note of caution - avoid Paul Robinson like the plague, no matter how cheap. He has cost me so many negative points over the past 2 seasons because he only seems to make 1 save a game and often concedes 2 or 3.

My top pick: Kirkland

That's it - they'll be another post on player picks nearer kick off! Please feel free to comment on this post / post your team up for me to rate.

Cheers,
AM

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