Week 18 - Player Picks

Never in my time playing Yahoo Fantasy Football, have I ever seen so many big name/big points producing players at such low values. Just look at six of the biggest names in the Premier League:

Lampard @ 12.23
Van Persie @ 11.82
Fabregas @ 14.93
Rooney @ 14.81
Gerrard @ 15.23
Torres @ 15.07

There was a time when each and every one of these players would average upward of 15 points per game & would cost you up to £20m+, but a combination of absence through injuries, poor form & token cameos have changed all that.

I saw a post on the Starting11 Forum earlier this week by a YFF manager who had managed to fit all six of the players above in his team by adding in budget players in the remaining five slots. It was done as a joke, but it was amazing to see that it could be done. In seasons gone by you could not have got close.

So which of them should you be getting in to your team? Well you certainly don't want them all (especially as many of them are still big doubts) but picking the correct one or two before a price jump over the next two weeks could set you up with fantastic value long term picks & be key to the 2nd half of your season. Lampard & RvP stand-out for me provided they can both stay fit, but you may have your own ideas!

Anyway, before we go in to any more details on players, I can confirm that the cold snap is well & truly returning to the UK, with a risk of temperatures as low as -10 and more snow forecast throughout the country over the next few days. It's not meant to be as bad as the weather in Week 16, but there may be a risk to some matches. If I hear anything it will be posted here immediately, but for now I've written this post assuming all games will go ahead

The Week 18 fixtures...

Stand-Out
ARSENAL v Stoke
LIVERPOOL v Fulham

The above games are the only two that I see as stand-outs this week. Arsenal face Stoke at the Emirates & I think their movement combined with quick passing will see them run rings round Tony Pullis' men. Stoke are a solid side & if it came down to a battle of strength like it often does at the Britannia then I'd see a far closer game, but its a banker home win for me.

Liverpool are the current Jekyll & Hyde side of the Premier League; horrible away, but pretty damn handy at home, with Torres' form mirroring his team's. Fulham are just bad everywhere at the moment, struggling with injuries, losing/drawing far too many and find themselves in a relegation battle. Don't expect Hodgson to do his old side any favours, I see a comfortably Anfield win.

Should win
MAN CITY v Everton
BLACKBURN v West Ham
SPURS @ Blackpool
WEST BROM v Wolves

Man City were almost a stand-out, but Everton have form for spoiling games like this by making themselves very hard to break down. I still think City will win, but there was enough of a doubt in my mind when added to the Tevez confusion. As for Blackburn, some people are suggesting they may be a club in turmoil after Allardyce's shock sacking, but they're good at home & their caretaker manager knows the players & will know how to get the best out of them. West Ham are the club in real trouble & are especially bad on the road so I think Blackburn will seal the 3 points.

The game I'm most looking forward to this weekend is Blackpool v Spurs. Two teams who play open, attacking football and who cannot defend to save their lives. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was a 7 goal thriller, but with Blackpool missing the suspended Charlie Adam I think Spurs will win the day with their extra quality. If Wolves are going to stay up it'll be their home form that does it as they are absolutely rotten away (0 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses), and I see that continuing with West Brom taking the spoils in the Black Country derby.

Close/Draw
Chelsea v Man Utd
Sunderland v Bolton
Birmingham v Newcastle
Wigan v Aston Villa

Chelsea v United is the big one, but I can see both sides cancelling each other out in a low scoring (or maybe even no scoring?) draw. Sunderland are missing almost their entire defence, but they are dangerous in attack so I think they'll manage a draw against in-form Bolton & I can also  Birmingham v Newcastle & Wigan v Villa ending all-square.

With that in mind, here are the players...

KEEPERS
Reina
Fabianski/Szczesny (awaiting news from Wenger)
Robinson
Carson

DEFENDERS
Bale
Squillaci
Koscielny
Kolarov (back from suspension)
Jara (bargain)
Konchesky
P.Jones
Carr
M.Dawson
Enrique
D.Murphy (if Ridgewell remains out)
Stam
P.Robinson

MIDFIELDERS
Lampard
Pedersen
Brunt
Silva
Nasri
Meireles (if Gerrard remains out, which seems likely)
Tchoyi
Nani
Fabregas (awaiting news from Wenger)
Barton
Holden
Van Der Vaart (awaiting news from Redknapp)
Lennon
N'Zogbia
Kuyt
Albrighton
Richardson (filler)

STRIKERS
Chamakh/Van Persie (Cham looked sluggish at United...time for RvP to start?)
Defoe
Torres
Tevez/Balotelli (unbelievably there's a strong chance both will play)
Elmander (Sunderland defensive crisis)
Carroll
Gyan (I feel he'll start this week)
Roberts
Rodallega
Agbonlahor/Heskey (Gabby is back but Heskey was good last week)

That's it for another week!

Apologies for the lack of player analysis this week - blame it on a combination of work & Christmas shopping! I will try to add some additional analysis over the next 48 hours if I can, but it's possible I may not return until Friday's update post.

My team currently looks like this...

Robinson, Squillaci, Bale, Kolarov, Meireles, Van Der Vaart, Brunt, Pedersen, Lampard, Balotelli, Van Persie

...which is the same as it was earlier in the week, with almost £4m left in the bank. The defence & keeper will stay as it is, but I'm still considering Nasri, Fabregas, Silva, Defoe & Torres amongst others for my attacking 7...a lot will depend on the VDV, Meireles/Gerrard & RvP news as we approach the weekend.

As always, please vote in the poll:
http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/511116

I'll be back on Friday to update you with all the important weather, team & injury news, plus I'll update you on how my team is looking.

How's your own team shaping up? Any hunches this week?

Cheers,
AM

p.s. We've passed 1100 Facebook members, amazing! Please join us as we move onwards & upwards!