Week 1 - Player Picks

Week 1 is almost upon us, but sadly the usual excitement about the start of a new Premier League season has been overshadowed by the riots here in England. The country is in turmoil and all Police efforts are understandably focused on things other than stewarding sporting events.

As yet there's been no confirmation regarding postponements but a statement released earlier today by the Premier League suggested some games in London are at risk. That would mean Tottenham v Everton, Fulham v Aston Villa and QPR v Bolton. However, with all games still on I have to write this post as if all games will go ahead.  

UPDATE: Spurs v Everton POSTPONED. Other 9 games are ON.

Now this will be one of the most difficult post I write this season. We have no real idea of starting XI's, we have no true indication of the form or fitness of individual players, we have no way of knowing if new signings will adapt to the rigours of the Premier League, so it's very difficult to produce a list I feel 100% confident with. However, having analysed the Week 1 Fixtures in a previous post, I've identified the sides with favourable matches (Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal & Fulham in particular) and put together my recommendations based on that.

I've copied my fixture analysis summary below:

Stand-Out
MAN CITY v Swansea

Should Win
LIVERPOOL v Sunderland
MANCHESTER UNITED @ West Brom
FULHAM v Aston Villa
ARSENAL @ Newcastle

Could Win
CHELSEA @ Stoke

Draws
Tottenham v Everton OFF
Wigan v Norwich
QPR v Bolton
Blackburn v Wolves

Now for the players sparking my interest for Week 1. Those marked with an asterix* are still doubts due to fitness/injuries and I'll be able to give more details in my Friday Update post.

Here we go...

KEEPERS
De Gea
Hart

De Gea may not have had a great start in the Community Shield, but he's a quality keeper, and the opportunity to buy and keep Manchester United's #1 for just 6.03 (5.91 if you were quick enough) when they are clear favourites to win the title again is not to be sniffed at.

If you really don't trust him (and to be fair away to West Brom certainly isn't an guaranteed clean sheet) then I'd be spending the big money on Joe Hart, but De Gea is the smart long term investment. Those are the only two Week 1 options in my opinion - not a Kirkland in sight.

DEFENDERS
Vermaelen*
Gibbs*
J.A.Riise
Agger
Richards
Kelly
Caldwell
Brown
Smalling/Fabio (one should play)

It was all looking so easy for fantasy managers a week ago as the majority of teams I'd seen posted had snapped up the bargain that is Kieron Gibbs for under 2.50 and perhaps the even bigger bargain, Vermaelen at a shade over 7.00. Then, of course, the Arsenal injury curse struck in their final pre-season friendly, with both players picking up injuries. We've had no official news regarding whether they'll be ready to feature on Saturday, but if they are then they remain two of the top picks for Week 1. Hopefully Wenger will provide the info we need in his press conference on Friday - he's usually pretty good at stating who's ready to play.

Aside from them an old fantasy favourite, attacking full-back John Arne Riise, returns to the Premier League at Fulham at a great price and with a good fixture, Daniel Agger is a fine player when fit, has one of the best long strikes I've ever seen in a defender and also had a nice fixture with Liverpool at home to Sunderland. With City being the stand-out fixture of the week it would make sense to consider one of their defensive options and the value pick appears to be Micah Richards. He started the Community Shield at right-full back and there is certainly the opportunity for him to make the position his own this season if he can stay fit.

Next in the list is a 2nd Liverpool defender, Martin Kelly, who impressed everyone with his form when Kenny arrived last season. He picked up a nasty injury which ended his run in the team but he should be fit to start at the weekend with Glen Johnson injured and he's proved to  be a consistent points scorer. Gary Caldwell's appearance above may surprise some but as Wigan's captain he's a guaranteed starter, he has a home fixture against a promoted team and he's cheap at 5.10.

Sunderland's recent signing Wes Brown is a great cheap option at just 3.02 despite a tricky match at Anfield and we await news on who's set to start at right back for Manchester United. It's likely to be Chris Smalling after he was excellent vs Manchester City last Sunday, but it could even be the bargain Fabio. If news suggests it'll actually be his twin brother Rafael then I'd avoid as he's a little too pricey at almost 8.00.

MIDFIELDERS
Nani
Young
Van Der Vaart
Taarabt
Silva
Duff
Ramsey
Hoilett
Moses
Obertan

One of the toughest decision of the opening weekend is which premium midfielder to go for and the players I'd be considering are Manchester United duo Nani, new signing Ashley Young and Tottenham's Rafael Van Der Vaart.

Nani is my top pick but with a price over 21 he may prove slightly too expensive for some managers (including myself) despite his brace and impressive performance against Man City. Over 3.00 cheaper is Mr Young, who I currently have in my team, who looks like he'll get the majority of set pieces, looked at home in a United shirt and assisted Smalling's goal with a beautiful cross last Sunday. Van Der Vaart is the only man of the 3 likely to be on all free-kicks, corners and penalties, so by that logic alone he'll be a fantastic pick, but I'm less confident if a Spurs victory than I am of a United win, so that dents his potential slightly.

Another player who should be at the fulcrum of everything his side does is newly promoted QPR's Adel Taarabt. Given his price I think he should be in everyone's team for Week 1 as he could be this season's Charlie Adam, but it remains to be seen whether he'll cut it in the Premier League. The guy is hugely talented but also incredibly stroppy when things aren't going his way, he can be greedy and unbelievably lazy. He's worth the risk for Week 1 but it'll be an interesting one to monitor. While on the subject of Adam, I don't feel spending 15 on him is worth it until we see what share of free-kicks/corners he gets. Even in Gerrard's absence, Downing & Suarez are likely to pinch many of these from him.

David Silva is my pick of the Manchester City attacking midfielders (as he's the only one guaranteed to start) and should have plenty of space to operate against newly promoted Swansea. A slightly controversial call follows with Damien Duff my Fulham midfield pick for the game against Aston Villa, ahead of Clint Dempsey. My reasons? He's 3.00 cheaper, on set pieces and Dempsey is unlikely to find himself played as a striker this season with Zamora, Johnson & Dembele now all fit, which will hurt his fantasy return.

At the cheaper end of the scale is Arsenal's Aaron Ramsey, who should be key to Wenger's plans now Fabregas is finally on his way (and possibly Nasri to follow). He's priced under 4.50 and should play further forward than Wilshere, so expect a better fantasy return than young Jack is likely to ever bring. Live-wire Junior Hoilett is the sole Blackburn representative as he has that N'Zogbia-like ability to make things happen, Victor Moses will be expected to fill the N'Zogbia-sized hole in the Wigan midfield and Obertan is a dirt-cheap filler option being tipped to start at his new club Newcastle.

STRIKERS
Van Persie*
Suarez*
Rooney
Gervinho
Carroll
Aguero*
Dzeko
Zamora/Johnson

More doubts in the 'Strikers' section, with Arsenal's Robin Van Persie another player injured in that pre-season friendly. He had been in my team before it happened and if he's fit then I'll probably look to get him back in, but if there's any chance he may not start then he's simply not worth the risk of spending almost 22.00. Again, we await Wenger's press conference for an update. Doubt #2 is Luis Suarez, who played a full part in the Copa America and has not featured in Liverpool's pre-season. He returned from his holiday this week and has trained but is unlikely to be match-fit, so again we need Kenny to confirm this before the deadline. If he'll start he's is a must-pick for Week 1 given his match-up.

Hernandez is still recovering from concussion and Berbatov appears out-of-favour, so the only Manchester United striking option is Wayne Rooney. Sir Alex believes this pre-season has shown Rooney close to his best so if you're looking for a premium striker and don't want to risk Van Persie then he could be your man. Back at Arsenal, and Gervinho has got fans excited with his pre-season performances. Pace, strength and goals, he's exactly what the Gunners need to take the burden off RvP and he's at a game entry price of 6.58 against a generally porous Newcastle defence.

I currently have Suarez in my team but if he's out then I could move to Andy Carroll who should be in much better condition than he was at the end of last season after 3 months out injured. On his day the man is impossible to play against and as a Geordie he'll be bang up for it against Sunderland. Aguero is the 3rd striker listed who's a doubt and for the same reason as Suarez - he's had no pre-season matches and has hardly trained since he arrived. If he's set to start it's hard to leave him out, but if not then the Manchester City striker interesting me is Edin Dzeko. Hehad a disappointing start to his career in England but he should've settled now and I'm expecting big things from him this yea

Finally if you're looking to do something a bit different then you could do worse than going for one of the Fulham strikers. Bobby Zamora is a certainty to start when fit and Andy Johnson has been scoring goals for fun in the opening rounds of the Europa League, so I expect the pair to line-up together against Villa.

That's it!

My current team looks like this:

De Gea

Caldwell, Richards, Riise

Silva, Taarabt, Duff, Young

Gervinho, Dzeko, Suarez

Still waiting on team/injury news regarding Gibbs, Verm, Aguero, Suarez & Dzeko before making any final decisions and may still try to go Young > Nani. Things will become a lot clearer as we aproach the Saturday deadline.

How's your team shaping up? Any players you feel I've missed from the lists above?

Cheers,
AM