Week 17 - Player Picks

First things first...we had a couple of points adjustments yesterday afternoon but I'm confident they'll be the last we see this week, so I'll be preparing the Blog Cup Results tomorrow morning - make sure you check back!

Now, it's still very cold here in the UK, but the good news is the snow has passed so we should have a full programme of fixtures in Week 17. And what an interesting programme it should be, with 4 of the Top 5 locking horns - Manchester United v Arsenal & Tottenham v Chelsea.

None of the top teams have been able to take control of this title race as yet - Chelsea threatened to run away with it early on but have faltered badly in the past month, Man Utd are undefeated without playing that well, Arsenal are playing well but look defensively fragile, and Spurs are only outsiders. The team that could profit most this weekend are Manchester City, who travel to rock bottom West Ham.

Let's take a full look at the fixtures...

Stand-Out
MANCHESTER CITY @ West Ham

Despite missing a certain Mr Tevez due to suspension I still feel this is the real stand-out game of the weekend and a certain win for the away side. West Ham briefly rallied with two wins in a few days last week, but they were poor again at Sunderland and I just think City will have far too much quality for them.

Should Win
EVERTON v Wigan
BOLTON v Blackburn
STOKE v Blackpool
LIVERPOOL @ Newcastle

Everton let us all down against West Brom in Week 15, but I can't see the same thing happening at home to Wigan after the boost of a well deserved point at Stamford Bridge last weekend. Bolton are a very decent side at the Reebok and should have too much for Blackburn (although I'm sticking with Robbo!) and Stoke are in good form so should edge out an open Blackpool side.

Liverpool are starting to hit their stride face a shell-shocked Newcastle, so I see an away win. Hughton's sacking was completely unfair, the players are unhappy and they'll hardly be overjoyed by the news that the uninspiring Alan Pardew will take his place. The whole thing stinks and after 18 months of staying out of things (which coincided with some actual stability), Mike Ashley has once again turned the club in to a laughing stock.

Draws/Close
Manchester United v Arsenal
Tottenham v Chelsea
Fulham v Sunderland
Aston Villa v West Brom
Wolves v Birmingham

Half the fixtures are really tough to call this weekend, including the two big games. I think both Manchester United v Arsenal and Spurs v Chelsea will end in score draws, but reckon we'll see really entertaining battles as all four sides will feel they can win and will know what a huge result a win would be.

Fulham v Sunderland has 1-1 draw written all over it, and we finish with two Midlands derbies - Aston Villa v West Brom and Wolves v Birmingham. All four are bitter rivals, the atmosphere will be feisty and both games could go either way. Again, I'm predicting score draws.

KEEPERS
Jaaskalainen
Howard
Friedel

As I said last week, if you have a solid keeper at a big discount then it certainly seems success comes from sticking with them no-matter the fixture. I'll be doing exactly that by staying with Paul Robinson for the foreseeable future, but if you're looking to buy at full price then then three men above are my choices for Week 17.

Blackburn are hardly prolific scorers, especially away from home, so I fancy a Bolton clean sheet and good points for Jaaskalainen. I mentioned Everton's rotten performance at West Brom - which was the week many of us took a -12 point hammering from Tim Howard - but I'm tipping the American stopper to have a better week this time around and he's priced below £5m. An another American, Brad Friedel, is still a top keeper and costs under £7m for the first time ever, so he's definitely worth thinking about if you fancy Villa to improve.

DEFENDERS
Bale
Baines
Kompany
Coleman
Toure/Lescott
Bosingwa  Injured
Knight
Shawcross
Konchesky
Richards
Dann
Enrique
Tamas
Elokobi
Pantsil
P.Robinson

A few new names this week as some of the smaller teams have clean sheet chances which offers some good value defenders. At the other end of the scale, Bale will be facing the fairly useless Paulo Ferreria after Bosingwa was ruled out with an injury & Leighton Baines has been performing well , has a clean sheet chance & will be on set pieces in Arteta's absence. If you can't afford Baines then Seamus Coleman could be the answer - he's back in the team & was named as the clubs Player of the Month award for November.

It's a bit of a lottery when it comes to predicting Man City's back four this weekend - Kolarov is suspended Boateng seems out of favour for some reason & Toure is an injury doubt. The back four could be Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Zabaletta, although if Toure makes it then Lescott could move to left fullback with Zabaleta or Richards at right-back. We'll need to wait for team news, but Richards is undoubtedly the pick of the bunch if he's set to play, priced at just £6m.

Knight, Konchesky, Dann, Shawcross & Enrique are all priced between £6-£8m and I feel all are really good options this week for clean sheet chances or attacking points, or a combination of both for Bolton, Liverpool, Birmingham, Stoke & Newcastle respectively. Out of the five I've got a bit of a hunch that Ryan Shawcross may pop up with a goal against Blackpool, but unfortunately I can't fit him in my team this week.

If you're looking to fill a space from the very bottom of the price scale then we have West Brom's Tamas at 5.4 if you fancy West Brom to keep Villa at bay, Wolves' Elokobi who is set to continue in defence and priced under 5, a previous favourite from two seasons ago, Fulham's John Pantsil, back in at right full-back and costing 5.4 & finally Bolton's Paul Robinson, under £5m & with a decent chance of a clean sheet for Bolton

MIDFIELDERS
Etherington
Silva
Cahill
Brunt
Downing/A.Young
Nani
Milijas
Meireles
Nasri
Adam
Dempsey
Malouda
Albrighton
Barton
Pennant
Gardner
Jarvis
Rodwell

Matty Etherington is playing the best football of his career at the moment and should get plenty of point scoring opportunities versus a Blackpool side who only know how to attack. He's pricey, but tempting nonetheless. One day soon the improving David Silva will score 20+ & he won't get many better chances than at West Ham. Tevez's absence may actually help him as he'll be expected to provide the creative spark, and he's a bargain. Tim Cahill is essentially playing as a centre forward nowadays and is a constant goal threat, while Chris Brunt seems to be over his groin injury and will be on all set pieces at a fragile Aston Villa.

Speaking of Villa, I still expect their midfield to score well. Downing has been the most consistent this season, Young is likely to be on penalties, the two of them will share set pieces, and Mark Albrighton is a slightly cheaper option who often pops up in the box to notch a goal. I wouldn't pay full-price for Nani but if you hold him at discount then hang on to him vs Arsenal, Milijas will shoot all day & Meireles should continue on set pieces, although reports today suggests Gerrard could be back soon, possibly on the bench at Newcastle.

It's difficult to decide on Nasri - he's in fantastic form and scored again last night, but United away is tough. Like Nani I don't think he's worth full-price this week, but if you have him around 10-11 (or cheaper) then it''s really tempting to hang on to him. Adam is up at £9m nowadays but he's due a free-kick or penalty soon & Stoke do concede a lot of fouls, Dempsey is Fulham's biggest goal threat in much the same way as Cahill is for Everton, while Malouda is pricey but also quality & we all know Spurs can't defend, so he could be a good (slightly risky) pick.

Joey Barton screwed a fair few managers over last weekend after withdrawing from the Newcastle squad with an unreported injury suffered in training, but he's due to be back this weekend. Pennant also missed out last weekend but he's expected to return & like Barton, he'll get his fair share of set pieces. Craig Gardner is having a cracking season for Birmingham & faces Wolves, Matt Jarvis is another who continues to impress & Jack Rodwell is likely to start after a fine performance at Stamford Bridge last weekend - a fantastic filler option at under 3.5

STRIKERS
Balotelli
Elmander
Torres
K.Jones
K.Davies
Rooney
Agbonlahor
Gyan
Defoe
Drogba
Carroll
Odemwingie
Obinna
Beckford

Mario Balotelli could score a hat-trick at West Ham, or he could get sent off, or he could do both. He's unpredictable but he's also extremely talented, and he should be in your team for Week 17, whether you grabbed him at 5 or must now pay 8. Next is Johan Elmander, who is in great form & has a nice easy fixture, and I reckon Torres must fancy his chances to score at Newcastle (who as I write this have just confirmed Alan Pardew as manager on a 5-Year deal - mental). Kenwyne Jones is another who is due a goal and will get plenty of chances against Blackpool.

If you can't afford Elmander then penalty taker Kevin Davies is the alternative, Wayne Rooney will score soon and Arsenal can't defend, so it could be this week, while Gabby Agbonlahor looked rusty against Liverpool but can't be ignored at his current price of 7ish. Gyan is my pick of the Sunderland strikers after playing really well vs West Ham, while Defoe & Drogba will face-off at White Hart Lane where there will be goals!

I've already mentioned that I think Newcastle will lose, but that doesn't mean Andy Carroll won't be a handful and I'm sure Odemwingie will cause the Villa defence plenty of problems. Obinna is always good for a few points even in tough home games, and the final option is Jermaine Beckford - he's struggled a bit so far but at least he's scored a couple of goals, unlike Saha & Yakubu.

That's it - all analysis done!

My own team looks the same as it did a few days ago as I plan to have a look at it properly tomorrow night,  but here it is at the moment:

Robinson, Kolarov, Bale, Baines, VDV, Silva, Meireles, Brunt, Etherington, Elmander, Balotelli

I actually quite like it, although Meireles will possibly go if Gerrard is set to start at Newcastle (as he'll lose set pieces), and I'd have around £9m to replace him. The suspended Kolarov stays @ 4.4 for a one week zero, I'm obviously hoping VDV returns and I'm going to stick with Robbo in goal for a while to see how that works out. Balotelli, Elmander, Silva, Baines & Bale will stay too but I may change a few things to get a Villa player in. I'm still holding a discounted Nasri behind the scenes, but don't think I can fit him in anywhere.

As always, please vote in the poll:
http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/510704

I'll be back on Friday to update you with all the team & injury news, plus how my team is looking.

How's your own team shaping up?

Cheers,
AM

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