Week 11 - Player Picks

As I start this post I'm still on a high after last night's incredible result over Inter Milan. It is without doubt one of the proudest nights of my life as a Spurs fan as we played with flair, pace, power and without fear, Modric outshone Sneijder, Bale ripped Maicon & Lucio to shreds and the whole team worked their socks off for 93 minute to seal a famous win. My only regret is not getting a ticket!

If Tottenham could play like that on a regular basis then the club would be challenging for the Premier League title, but of course the consistency just isn't there and it's extremely possible that after beating the reigning European Champions we will go and lose to Bolton Wanderers this Saturday lunchtime...the life and times of a Spurs fan!

Anyway, as mentioned in a previous post we have had confirmation from Yahoo that there are no more double weeks, meaning Week 11 is a single week, followed by Week 12 in mid-week (The 3rd Round of The Blog Cup), immediately followed by Week 13 next weekend, meaning we need to pick 3 teams in 7 days. Exactly where I'm going to find time to write Player Pick posts in such quick succession I'm not sure, so you may well find the posts to be shorter than usual for the next 10 days or so.

A good way to speed things up is by changing my fixture summary to the following format:

Stand-Outs
MAN UNITED v Wolves
ARSENAL v Newcastle

Should Win
MAN CITY @ West Brom
BIRMINGHAM v West Ham
CHELSEA @ Liverpool
EVERTON @ Blackpool

Draw/Close to Call
Bolton v Tottenham
Fulham v Aston Villa
Sunderland v Stoke
Blackburn v Wigan

Now on to the Player Recommendations, with the added confusion of injuries to Nani, Fabregas & Van Der Vaart...

KEEPERS
Fabianski
Hart
Foster
Mignolet
Robinson

Wenger has been harping on for a while that Fabianski (aka Flappy-Handski) is a good keeper. We all doubted him as the young man put in rotten performance after rotten performance, but he is starting to show signs of having some quality. I missed him at £6m a couple of weeks ago but he still returned good points for a cost of £9m in Week 10 and he has another nice winnable home fixture vs Newcastle.

Joe Hart let lots of managers down last weekend with his negative points, but he's £9m now, City face a West Brom side decimated by suspensions (2 red cards vs Blackpool) and injuries (Olsson, Odemwingie and Morrison all doubts), so I'd expect a far better score this week. Around this same cost is Ben Foster, who continues to perform well and could grab another clean sheet at home to bottom club West Ham.

At the cheaper end of the market we have two in-form keepers who have seen their value drop after defeats and negative points last weekend, but who have winnable games against teams who don't score too many. Sunderland took a battering at Newcastle so Mignolet dropped significantly (£5.58m) , but they can beat Stoke, while Blackburn were unlucky to lose to Chelsea and Paul Robinson (£6.73m) is perfectly capable of keeping out Wigan.

DEFENDERS
Bale
Salcido
Bosingwa
Squillaci
Kompany
Boateng
Koscielny
Carr
Dann
Coleman
Hutton
Jones
Zhirkov
Salgado
Onuoha
Jacobsen

Maicon couldn't stop him, can Steinsson? Well Rafael & Phil Neville did, but Bale is sure to test him and he may also get set-pieces back if Van Der Vaart misses out. I'm still reeling from picking Dembele instead of Salcido last week and I now can't afford Fulham's attacking full-back. If you had him/barndoored him then he should stay in for the home game vs Villa.

We can't be sure whether Bosingwa returns at Liverpool but he's out of Chelsea's European game tonight due to illness - hopefully Ancelotti will clear things up on Friday. Squillaci & Koscielny allow you to cover the Arsenal clean sheet if you don't go with Fabianski, both around £7m, while Kompany has dropped in price after a strong start to the season and Boateng is cheap again, so either of those men cover Man City.

The other team with a great clean sheet chance are Birmingham, so Dann or Carr are the most affordable defenders. Coleman still represents fantastic value as a defender playing right-wing, but it appears he's also the first player to be subbed when Everton switch systems, so the 75 minute cut-off is a concern.

Corluka remains out so Hutton continues at right back for Spurs, Blackburn's Jones & Salgado have done well all season and face Wigan, Zhirkov is one to watch as Lampard & Ramires may both return at Liverpool (in which case he'd be on the bench), while Onuoha & Jacobsen are guaranteed starters below £6m.

MIDFIELDERS
Nani could be fit http://tinyurl.com/2vo57e2
Fabregas
Nasri
Van Der Vaart/Modric
Arteta
Malouda (Injured)
Adam
Silva
Dempsey
Walcott
Brunt
Holden
Larsson
Pennant
Song
Milijas
Gardner
Park/Gibson
Henderson

Ferguson has said that Nani will definitely miss Wolves and although I'm waiting until Friday to drop him my gut says he won't be risked (Update: maybe he will http://tinyurl.com/2vo57e2?). It's up to you whether you keep him and it will depend on your discount. That makes Fabregas the number one pick if he recovers from his hamstring worry and I think the game being on Sunday means he should be ready, but if there's a doubt then Nasri will probably come in to my team instead.

Van Der Vaart probably needs a weekend off to ensure his hamstring recovers, but anyone holding him at around £6m should hang on. If he's out and you want rid then Modric looks like he's hitting form so could be a good alternative. Arteta is playing well for in-form Everton and could be a decent shout at Blackpool, Malouda will be back at Liverpool (nope, Ancelotti confirms he's injured), Adam is going to score well no matter the fixture and David Silva seems to have cemented his place for City now and gets most set pieces.

Dempsey is too expensive at current price but if you grabbed him on the barndoor then keep him, Walcott could be a great pick if he plays so keep an eye on Arsenal's line-up tonight for clues and Brunt continues to impress. The more I see Holden the more I like him and I expect him to cause Spurs plenty of problems, while Seb Larsson will be on set pieces for Birmingham as will Pennant (sharing with Etherington but more affordable) for Stoke.

Alex Song is in great goal scoring form but his value remains reasonable, Milijas continues to shoot from everywhere and Craig Gardner should be settling back in to form after his three-match suspension. With Nani, Valencia, Giggs, Fletcher & Anderson all struggling it could be a game for Park or Gibson (or maybe even Oberton?) to impress and Sunderland's Jordan Henderson wraps things up in midfield.

STRIKERS
Hernandez
Drogba
Berbatov
Chamakh
Adebayor
Balotelli
Yakubu
Bent/Gyan
Zigic
Biram Diouf/Benjani
Obinna

Hernandez is my favourite striker this week and by the look of the poll results so far plenty of others feel the same. Drogba enjoys playing Liverpool although you'll need to be certain to splash the 22+ on him & Berbatov is going through a quiet spell in terms of goals but is still playing well & will get chances vs Wolves.

Chamakh has been blowing hot & cold this season but I'm willing to give him another chance vs Newcastle and although Mancini says Tevez could be back from his thigh injury, he only gets back to England from Argentina tonight so I think they may give him a few days training first with the Manchester derby just a few days later. This would mean Adebayor and/or Balotelli come in to the picture at West Brom.

Yakubu grabbed the winner vs Stoke so he should continue upfront at Blackpool and Steve Bruce has confirmed he'll partner Gyan & Bent together from the start this weekend so I'm looking at Gyan as a possible third striker, while Birmingham's Jerome is still struggling with injury so West Ham will need to deal with Zigic on Saturday.

Blackburn seem to have a new strike partnership in Benjani & Biram Diouf and both are dirt cheap and playing Wigan, although we need to check on Benjani's injury tomorrow and finally Obinna, who should be back on all set pieces for West Ham after Mark Noble was ruled out for a month.

That's it! As always I'll add my analysis for each position (done!) when I get time over the next 24 hours and will be back with an update post on Friday to provide team and injury news before the Week 11 deadline.

Please vote in the poll to help Hans, Mike & myself pick the Blog Team:
http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/507024

Currently on my page: 

Fabianski, Bosingwa, Coleman, Bale, Adam, Silva, Van Der Vaart, Fabregas, Nani, Chamakh, Hernandez 

It's nowhere near done. Bale, Adam, Silva, Chamakh & Hernandez will almost certainly stay but I'm still undecided on a lot of things - whether to keep the injured Nani with a £3m discount, which keeper to go with (I have Fabianski @9.2 so could go to Robinson to save cash), whether I can risk Fabregas and/or Bosingwa not starting, whether Coleman will be subbed before 75 mins, and what to do about Van Der Vaart's constant injury niggles. I think VDV @6 stays but the rest are up in the air.

That's it for now - I'd be interested to hear your opinions on goalkeepers, Nani, Fabregas & Bosingwa.

Anyone you think I've missed from the lists above? Do you have any hunches? Who do you think will flop? How's your team shaping up in this week of uncertainty?

Cheers,
AM

p.s. We've passed 950 Facebook members - please join us as we look to pass 1000 before the end of the year! :)