Week 8 - Player Picks

It does seem an age since I last wrote a player picks post. It's actually only been two weeks but the lack of football combined with the mind numbing coverage of the Liverpool ownership saga has made it seem longer. I really can't wait for the return of the Premier League this weekend so we can start watching and reading about actual football rather than a unscrupulous businessmen attempting to rip the heart and soul out of the game.

Thankfully I had a 90 minute distraction last night as England faced Montenegro at Wembley, although the result and performance were disappointing. Wayne Rooney had another shocker, Crouch isn't actually any good in the air, Gareth Barry is a waste of space and Glen Johnson chases the ball around in similar way to 6 year old boys when they first start playing football - nothing new learnt then.

Unsurprisingly the papers were out in force again this morning, calling for Capello's head despite the fact England dominated the game after 2 good wins in their first 2 qualifiers. We get it...they want him out of the job and they won't rest until they get it done.

Moving on, and there's been plenty of time for us to mess around with different combinations within our Yahoo team pages over the past 10 days and many of you have posted your provisional sides in the comments sections. It seems we have two camps - those who have kept Bale & those who have not. Those who have gone without Bale have constructed stronger midfields with the extra £7m or so, but there will be that nagging feeling that the young Welshman is still capable of 20 points each and every week, and you may've just thrown that away.

I'm having difficulty deciding which direction to go in - last week he was definitely going, but in the past couple of days I've considered keeping him. As many of us end up with 7/8/9 players the same each week it's often 1 or 2 players that provide the big points swing each week (e.g. Rooney v Drogba in Week 1), and I have a feeling this week will be dependant on Bale's performance at Fulham.

Anyway, before I get any deeper in to player recommendations we first need to look at the Week 8 fixtures and it appears there are three stand-out matches. Arsenal (with Fabregas set to return) at home to a struggling Birmingham side with just 1 win this season and who just can't seem to score at the moment, Manchester United at home to West Brom, a game United must win given their poor away form, and Manchester City travelling to Blackpool. I see 3 wins for the teams currently 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Premier League

The team in 1st have a trickier trip to Aston Villa, but I still think Chelsea will have too much for Houllier's men. They slipped up at City in their last away game but I don't think Ancelotti will allow that to happen again. I also fancy Newcastle to beat Wigan, but be warned I've incorrectly predicted home wins over Blackpool & Wigan already this season. Stoke have been improving recently but I think Bolton will see this as a must win game at home, so it's another I tip for a home win, albeit a narrow one.

The remaining matches are all tough to call, and my predictions for all four games are draws. Fulham are difficult to beat at the Cottage so Tottenham will need to be at their best to get 3 points, Wolves v West Ham is sure to be tight and scrappy, the same could be said of the huge Merseyside derby between Everton & Liverpool, while Blackburn v Sunderland has 1-1 written all over it in permanent marker.

With my fixture analysis out of the way, here are my Week 8 Player Recommendations...

KEEPERS
Hart
Krul
Jaaskalainen
Fabianski

Not many teams have been able to break down Manchester City's defensive line-up this season (including Chelsea) and I doubt it'll be any different when they visit Blackpool, so Joe Hart is the premium pick as I'm almost certain he'll keep a clean sheet. He's expensive but it's likely to be worth it - plus many will have him cheaper than 11.

Krul is the bargain of the week at under £4m but then we've thought that before with Newcastle keepers at home. I'm probably going to go with him as Wigan are unlikely to score more than 1 goal, but I'm nervous given my record this season. Jaaskalainen is perhaps a slightly safer bet - Bolton are solid under Coyle and are at home to Stoke - but he's out of my price range.

I mentioned earlier that Birmingham are really struggling, so Arsenal will not have many better chances to secure a clean sheet. Whether you want to risk Fabianski is another thing altogether, but at 5.77 he could be an option if you fancy a bit of a gamble.

DEFENDERS
Bale
Boateng
Koscielny
Squillaci
Ferreria/Bosingwa
Ferdinand
Salcido
O'Shea
P.Jones
Williamson
P.Robinson
Coleman
Jacobson
Mancienne

I've mentioned Bale - if you think he'll continue to score 12-15 points each week despite Van Der Vaart's presence then keep him, if you don't then you should drop him. If you're not sure then you're in the same situation as I am! We're lucky that there are some really good cheap defenders this week - Boateng (although watch out for news on his recovery from flu), Koscielny, Squillaci, Ferreira & Bosingwa, all with chances of clean sheets and all priced between 4-6.

Rio Ferdinand's price went up a fair bit after United's 0-0 draw with Sunderland, but he's still around £9m and he generally averages around the 8-9 point mark most seasons. If you can't afford him then John O'Shea is the alternative. I'm hanging on to Salcido for another week and will be hoping for a bit more than the 5.5 & 4 points he's produced since I brought him in, and Phil Jones continues to score decently playing defensive midfield for Blackburn.

Newcastle's Williamson was very unlucky to concede a penalty in his last game but the negative points he received has sent his value tumbling below £6m, so he's a good choice. Paul Robinson is the cheapest Bolton defender if you want to covert that possible clean sheet. Seamus Coleman has been excellent for Everton bombing down the flank and I expect he'll keep his place, while Jacobsen and Mancienne are cheap fillers, priced under £5m and both likely to play.

MIDFIELDERS
Fabregas
Nani
Van Der Vaart
Arshavin
A.Johnson/Silva
Malouda
Dempsey
Nasri
Barton
Adam
M.Petrov
Pennant
Fletcher
Downing
Holden
Scholes
Eboue
Etuhu

I'm torn on Fabregas - we all know what he's capable of in home games, scoring 30 points in 30 minute cameo's when only 50% fit, taking free kicks, corners and penalties he can be unstoppable - but will Wenger throw him straight back in? Arshavin is the alternative while Nasri stock rises massively if Cesc starts on the bench. We'll need to wait for team news but at the moment I'm thinking I might risk him.

Nani was one of the first name on my team sheet, I expect him to have a field day vs West Brom, and Van Der Vaart should be in everyone's team by now. I'm dropping Malouda but he's by no means a bad choice at Villa - plus he tends to do well when I don't pick him! I missed Adam Johnson on the barndoor but £9m is still affordable - the obvious issue is him vs Silva - I know who I'd pick but Mancini has other ideas. Again, we'll need to wait on team news.

Dempsey is a pick not many people will make, but he'll be playing upfront vs a Tottenham defence that can by very brittle away from home, Adam and Barton have been consistently scoring above their values this season and M.Petrov is starting to show the fantasy form that made him so valuable when he was at City. Pennant, (taking away a lot of set pieces from Etherington) is also on my radar despite having a tough trip to Bolton.

Darren Fletcher's first appearance in my recommendations this season, and I have a feeling he might pop up with a goal this weekend, Downing has been outscoring Ashley Young and costs less, Holden is Mr Consistent, while Scholes, Eboue and Etuhu provide cheap filler options if you're struggling to find the cash for some bigger names.

STRIKERS
Drogba
Berbatov
Chamakh
Tevez
Elmander
Gyan
Carroll
Obinna
Kalinic

Drogba faces a tricky game at Villa but he's the top scorer in fantasy football by a clear 30 points and I hold him at a shade over 20, so he won't be going anywhere for now. Berbatov has been quiet since his outstanding hattrick vs Liverpool but the onus will be on him once again with Rooney out off form, and I think he'll grab a goal at home to West Brom.

Chamakh hasn't completely convinced as yet but with the likely return of Fabregas I expect he'll have more chances, so he's hard to turn down at £7m. I had initially brought Tevez in on the barndoor, but all this talk of arguments with Mancini and considering quitting football has left me wondering whether his head will be right. Saying that, if he does perform how we all know he can then he's capable of being Week 8's highest points scorer with a game at Blackpool.

Bolton's Elmander looks a different player this season and will look to continue his goalscoring form vs Stoke, while Gyan will have to lead the line for Sunderland with Darren Bent likely to miss out and he's very reasonably priced. Andy Carroll has gone off the boil as he's been struggling with a niggling injury and a virus in recent, but he should be fully fit to give Wigan's defence a hard time, Obinna will give Wolves problems & Kalinic is a decent filler who only needs a shot on target and a couple of free kicks won to return his value.

That's it for now - I am absolutely swamped with work at the moment so I haven't had the chance to write my usual detailed breakdown for each player/position above (UPDATE - Done!). I'm hoping I'll get the chance to complete all of these later tonight but if not it will be done before Friday.

The Week 8 poll: http://www.misterpoll.com/polls/504642

My current team: Krul, Salcido, Boateng, Squillaci, Adam, Van Der Vaart, Nani, Fabregas, Carroll, Chamakh, Drogba. 

To keep Bale in Squillaci's place I'd need to drop Fabregas and be left with £11m to spend on a midfielder and a possible upgrade of Carroll....good move?


Let me know your thoughts on the week ahead - are you taking any risks? Which of the big names will flop?

Please keep checking back as this post will be updated.

Cheers,
AM